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Unlike Last Year, Dirk Peaking At The Right Time

As we briefly noted in the previous post, one of the important but lesser publicized aspects of the Jason Kidd trade has been how it has re-energized Dirk Nowitzki. This is a stark contrast to last year. In fact, one of the real danger signs heading into the playoffs last year was the decline in Dirk's game.

Here is a graph of Dirk's month-by-month stats from last season. If you account for his low minute count in April due to him being rested, you still see a pretty compelling and frightening picture--after the all-star break, Dirk's performance went down hill. Practically every major offensive category saw decline: FG%, 3FG%, rebounds per game, assists per game, and points per game.

Here are Dirk's stats for this season. The first thing you notice is that it's an almost mirror image of last season. Of course the April stats are skewed by Dirk's injury and lower minute count, but even some of those numbers are remarkable. Specifically, Dirk's shooting percentage and points per game--even with the lower minute count and his injury--are some of his best numbers this season.

The second thing you notice is that Dirk's game started to improve in January, right before the Kidd trade. I can't explain this other than to speculate that Dirk was informed Kidd was coming well before everyone else. Either way, you can't deny that the two graphs represent an amazing contrast.

If the end of last season was a disturbing preview of what would happen with Dirk in the playoffs, Dirk's performance heading out of the new year this season is a disturbing preview in the opposite sense--for the Mav's first round opponent.

[editor's note, by Jake] Not sure what happened with the scale numbers on the second graph, but the graph is correct. The numbers on the left are simply wrong, but the overall trends are accurate.

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Great job
I think the team as a whole was going downhill after the All Star break last year, though maybe that was just a reflection of how Dirk's performance was slipping.  

It's amazing how Dirk's numbers are improving even with the injury.

by Marie on Apr 8, 2008 9:23 AM CDT   0 recs

Looks like on the 2nd graph...
You stacked the stats on top of each other whereas the first graph you them as normal line graph.  Either way still backs your point that his stats are definitely peaking at the right time.

by bradybob on Apr 8, 2008 9:56 AM CDT   0 recs

Thanks!
Damn my poor Excel skills! If I have time I'll fix it. :)

Thanks for the help.

by Jakedfw on Apr 8, 2008 12:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Great post Jake
I hope stuff like this really translates into some success here.  I am hoping that we continue through the rest of the season and win out the last 5.  We have every reason too IMO.  I would like to see Dirk rest though a game or two.  I know we did that last year and it hurt us, but I think where Dirk's at this year as opposed to last, I think we can afford to play him some LIMITED minutes the next few games to rest that ankle.  It wont do us any good to have his heart, and no legs come playoff time.

Everyone else needs to play hard, and Avery needs to get some consistent rotations rolling.  What's the status with Stack?  I feel like his injuries are always like this one, where nobody really knows WTF is going on there.  Is he in Cabo or something with Romo and Witten? ;)

As we come down to final 5 games here, can we get a poll up maybe of who we think we will see in the playoffs?  Or rather see?

by Toddy on Apr 8, 2008 2:22 PM CDT   0 recs

Speaking of Stack,
anyone have any thoughts about how Avery should use him when he returns?  We've had a lot of success during the time he's been out (despite losing one or two of those games), and I'm a little concerned about how his return will affect the rotations.  Don't get me wrong; I want to see Stack in the game, and I know he's a critical part of our success.  I'm just worried about whose minutes he'll be getting from what has proven (over the short term) to be an effective rotation.

by rassoodocks on Apr 8, 2008 3:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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