Worried about the Mavs making the playoffs?

Apparently Ian Thomsen over at SI.com isn't... Couple of snippets from his most recent article...

a. The West. By the way, in both conferences I'm assuming (perhaps naively, but what else to do at this early stage) full health for all of the key players.

15. Oklahoma City
14. Memphis
13. Minnesota
12. Sacramento
11. Golden State
10. Denver
9. L.A. Clippers
8. Portland
7. Phoenix
6. Houston
5. San Antonio
4. Dallas
3. New Orleans
2. Utah
1. L.A. Lakers

2. The Mavericks. Rick Carlisle is an efficiency expert with a track record of getting the most out of his teams over the regular season. Who's to say that he can't find ways to squeeze 55 or more wins out of a deep roster led by Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and a rejuvenated Josh Howard?

Not sure I'm buying that we're one of the 4 best teams out West, but I guess it's nice to hear someone in the national media feels that way...

4 months ago N41D Comment 15 comments 0 recs |

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SA

I think he’s assuming San Antonio will get old real quick or that Dallas will beat them enough in the regular season to creep ahead of them. Phoenix at 7? I guess he’s not a Shaq believer.

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Jul 28, 2008 7:18 AM CDT 0 recs

I think its pretty fair to say

that after NO, its pretty much a toss up… are we really the 4th best team? Maybe, maybe not. But it could be such a tight race again this year that its where we could just end up. I dont think we are any worse than Houston and Phoenix by any means, and the verdict is still out on SA as they continue to sign and resign players.

I think Portland, the Clippers, Denver and GS could all still be sleepers this year. Even though GS and Denver both lost key guys, they still have fairly decent teams put together.

by Toddy on Jul 28, 2008 2:29 PM CDT 0 recs

I am by ALL means a homer.

so take that into account. I don’t see a clear cut favorite, other than the fact that the Lakers made it to the Finals this year. And while the Hornets beat us out of it this year, and we’ve looked pretty bad lately in the playoffs and in the 2nd half in general last year, I don’t see a team from top to bottom I like more than the Mavs. There are “ifs” with every team in the NBA. And I offer up my proclamation that we are the # 1 team in the West, IF the following things happen:

1) Josh Howard plays the kind of basketball he can play, and keeps consistent throughout the season
2) Carlisle truly lets Kidd run this team on the court
3) We find a way to keep the same starting SG for 70% of the games this year
4) Dirk, Josh, the Jasons and our centers stay healthy

I don’t think that’s TOO much to ask.

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 29, 2008 8:19 PM CDT 0 recs

The difference between 1st and 10th

is likely to be 12 games. Worry more about the playoffs, not whether your second or seventh. Social proprietary prevents me from inserting a snarky comment, but you guys know what I’m thinking. I’m sure the Mavs will make the playoffs, the question is whether they’ll have the tools (read:right roster) to take down the bigwigs.

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Jul 30, 2008 3:35 PM CDT 0 recs

I think we all thought it was a little bogus

that he put us at the 4th spot… but now with Artest in Houston, its a pretty much guarentee we wouldnt with our current roster.

I still see SA above us, but after that, anything is fair game. Of course I will be optimistic in saying that Dallas could finish 6th at best with this roster, but the difference between 6th and 10th even will probably be less than 4-7 games.

by Toddy on Jul 30, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Honestly, it comes down to luck

and who the Mavs get matched up with. I still see the Mavs as San Antonio killers, so if they drop to sixth and San Antonio is third, then hell the only way they’d be luckier is if the Spurs were sixth and the Mavs were third.
The only way the Mavs can beat the Suns would be to outgun them so the Mavs need another shooter (Mike Millerrrrrrr!).
The Mavs can beat the Hornets by shutting down David West and Tyson Chandler for five or six games (no one is stopping Chris Paul). So, the Mavs need the Diop they didn’t have last post-season to develop the ability to score, or pick up a big man from somewhere who can get buckets and defend. Can David Lee defend one-on-one? I heard he’s a decent team defender, but if he can shut down David West, and then all you need is Dirk to keep a body on Chandler and force him out of the post (Dirks got the leg strength and mental focus to do that).
I think the current team can beat the Jazz. The answers to the Lakers and Rockets riddle I don’t have, sadly, because I really don’t know how those teams are going to play next year.

Actually dude, Mike Miller and David Lee. That’s my recommendation. And guess what? They’re both semi-available.

How to get Miller?
He’s got two years left on his deal, so I’m pretty sure a package of Bass, Jones, and George in a sign-and-trade-for-free-money would get the job done. George and Jones will immediatley get waived.
Btw, how does Antoine Walker still have three years on his contract? Jesus. That’s terrible. best Barkley voiceThat’s just terrible.

How to get Lee?
This is gonna hurt guys. Take a deep breath. Ready? David Lee and Jared Jeffries for Jerry Stackhouse. Stackhouse’s deal expires by the summer of ‘10, Jeffries by the summer of ‘11. The Knicks do the deal to clear room for the summer of ‘Bron. The Mavs eat Jeffries contract (chew, chew, gag, chew, swallow), Stackhouse gets mysteriously bought out and after nearly signing with the Lakers, opts to return to the Mavs (wink wink). Yes, it sucks to eat Jeffries contract, but the Mavs winning Window is what, two years? Time to bite it, bite it thick and swallow. Plus, you’ll prolly resign Stackhouse for extra cheap, so really the raw cost difference isn’t as bad as it could be. The problem would be the roster spot Jeffries takes up, but considering you just traded four contracts for three, it’s doable.

What do you guys think? Could those pieces solve the puzzle? What do you think of each trade?
Afterwards, the roster would look something like:
Kidd-Terry
Miller-JJBarea(Stackhouse)
Howard-Jeffries
Dirk-Lee
Dampier-Diop

The only way this team wins it is if Dirk turns into “braaaaaahhhh I hit 50 points in playoffs Raaaaaaa Hear me Roar” Dirk, Jason Kidd returns from the games with a renewed focus, Dampier doesn’t get fatter, Diop gets skinnier, and Josh Howard shakes those late-season cobwebs. Mike Miller and David Lee nets you at least five more regular season wins, and gives the Mavs their first real outside threat since Dirk decided to focus on his lowpost game.

I don’t know, I’m interested in your thoughts.

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Jul 30, 2008 8:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

Also, just throwing this out there

White Chocolate as a late-season pick-up? Please?

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Jul 30, 2008 8:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

White Chocolate

you mean Jason Williams?

My initial reaction would be no, but if he could be had for the minimum, Kidd isnt up too playing 35+ min a game any more and he promises not to shoot much, but be more of a facilitator… I guess I dont see why not. Other than the starting SG/SF spot, the back up PG is probably the next biggest need that should be addressed on this team. But its a very distant 2nd to the biggest need.

They have already “verbally” committed to Keith McLeod, but after watching him play in some of the SL games, he seems to be a bit of a joke. So it may make sense later on, but for now I say hold off.

by Toddy on Jul 30, 2008 11:48 PM CDT up 0 recs

Yeah

I was thinking for the minimum to play the role you said.

While it’s a very distant 2nd, it’s also an easy one ot shroe up. Arroyo and Williams are still available, it’ll probably take just a couple phone calls.

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Jul 31, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

What it comes down too I think

is that we really dont know what JJ Barea’s role will be on this team. He just signed a 3 year deal…. seems like a commitment from the Mavs, but to what extent? A permanant 3rd option? Or a solid back-up?

I think any move the Mavs make though in addressing this issue, like you said, will probably come about sometime during the season.

by Toddy on Jul 31, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

huh

I didn’t know he got a deal, thanks for the info.

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Jul 31, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

yeah

it went under the radar, and we are all a bit confused by it… but who knows. It wasnt for very much, so I doubt the Mavs would have a hard time releasing him or sending him to the D-League should the need arise… but still.

by Toddy on Jul 31, 2008 9:41 PM CDT up 0 recs

Miller and Lee

A lot to chew there… but here it goes…

First off Miller. I was in favor of dealing for Miller before the trade deadline last year, when Memphis appeared to be having their fire sale when they let Pau go. But I proposed that we trade JET for him, strickly because of size. Sending Bass and Stack for him though would be interesting, but I think he’s in a second tier of players we should go after, should the first group of players not come through.

gives the Mavs their first real outside threat since Dirk decided to focus on his lowpost game.

Honestly, if you look at Miller’s numbers and JET’s, there arent that far off… at the trade deadline, their percentages were about equal at around 40%... but JETs fell for some reason when Kidd got here. But he has always be a legitimate outside threat for us.

Miller fills a huge need on this team, but its one that Terry essentially already brings. Go three point shooting, can run the floor, and hitting the occasional big shot. The upside to having Miller would be his size, and the ability to defend the bigger guards and forwards who have given us problems for years. But is it the kind of shut down defender that the Mavs need? Unless Josh embraces this defensive role this year, I think there would be serious doubts as to what the 28 year old Miller brings defensively. Offensively, I think he would thrive with Kidd… but so does JET.

Its my belief, that the Mavs should first look at bringing in someone who is a little more contrary to JET is. I’m not saying Miller couldnt work with JET, but I think their roles would be similar, but with Miller contributing more on the defensive end… but would it be enough? Maybe.

I still think that going after the likes of a Marion first would fill a greater need for the following reasons.

- he defends essentially all positions 1-5 (and since Bass would more than likely be gone, he could spell dirk for a bit at the 4, when he gets a blow)

- his game offensively is different from that of Josh or JET’s , in that he cant really create his own shots and requires someone like Nash or Kidd for him to be effective in the open court. His game thrives with a guy like Kidd, and his showcasing of running the floor would be contagious I think for the likes of Josh Howard… who seemed to have not grasped that concept much since Kidd got here.

- he flat out hustles for rebounds, lose balls, everything. Something the Mavs have really not had since the Najera and “Dallas Mavericks hustle points” days.

- He wants a contract extension? Well guess who the likely sucker would be in giving that too him? If he catches word that the Mavs want him, and that they would entertain serious contract extensions, you have to believe he would push to get out of there.

Yeah, I know he has his problems, and to be honest with you, I dont know why Miami would even look at a deal that we could put together that didnt include Josh… I just think its intriguing and should be looked at…. If all else fails though, either with Marion or someone who possesses those type of abilities, I DEFINITELY think Miller should be at the top of the list of guys to go after…

As far as Lee goes, absolutely I would make a deal for him… its fair to say he is becoming the next Najera for the Knicks. But only if we lose Bass in a deal, in which we did not get someone to back up Dirk in return… I dont know how I feel though about taking on Jefferies contract though. I mean do the Mavs really want that headache, just for a back up PF? I cant imagine so. We have a few promising summer league guys that could probably spell Dirk for 10 min a game… a price far less than taking on that contract.

Thats just my 2 cents.

Oh yeah, Walker is one of the biggest jokes in the league… I too saw his salary earlier today and about gagged. Every time I hear his name, it brings back the worst of memories of when he was here.

by Toddy on Jul 30, 2008 11:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

hmmm

Understood on the David Lee, I just thought he’d be a Brandon Bass type with more offensive ability, that can play the five in stints and really solidify your backup four spot. He can defend, which means he can play the Diop role on smaller bigs while still giving an offensive heartbeat. The Mavs are contenders. Your not looking for someone who can “spell Dirk for 10 min a game” – your looking for someone who will punish the other team if they decide to relax because Dirk is out of the game. Lee can bring that, and he’ll bring that night in and night out. Combine his rebounding tenacity with Kidds ability to get the ball down the floor, you can see why I think he’ll be a good fit.

As for Miller, I understand the duplication in Jet, but I don’t see why that’s a bad thing. Honestly, Miller wouldn’t replace the Jets minutes, he’d replace Stackhouses minutes… and Stackhouse is just getting older. Jet is more of a scorer than Miller (Miller seems more of a shooter), so having Jet come up as the sixth man to add more offensive firepower, while Miller fills in the starting line – it could be useful. Plus, if Carlisle really wants to slow the game down, having Jet and Miller in the game as the backcourt would create much more spacing for Dirk and Dampier than Kidd could (because Kidd can’t shoot threes). This way, Kidd only has to play thirty minutes or so – which means he can run the whole time he’s out there, thus minimizing his weaknesses.
Also, about those numbers – remember Miller put up that Clip when he was really the only perimeter threat the Grizz had (and really, their second offensive threat after Gay). Jet garners less attention when Dirk, Harris, Kidd, Stackhouse, Howard were on the floor.

I agree, Shawn Marion would turn the Mavs into near-instant favorites (assuming the major pieces aren’t lost). But I’d be really surprised if Miami deals him for excess players, unless your suggestion works, and Marion demands to get the hell out, and publicly says he’ll only play for Dallas, banking on that extensions. But that’s a whole lot to ask. But the thought of Marion wheeling-dealing around Kidd, Howard and Dirk? Oh man, I can see why your holding onto that dream, because it is sweeeeet.

Thanks for the reply, the responses are much appreciated to help my bball understanding. If you can throw ideas out there and see what an actual fan thinks, then that only helps you, right?

Now I can put my pink lace bra and panties back on. - Kfan in Korea

by iashwash on Jul 31, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

your right on with Lee

Honestly, now that I think about it, should Dirk go down, and Bass were to be gone, it would have to be a move the Mavs look at… depending on if Rhodes, R. Terry, or Singleton (all promising summer league guys, who have in someways all be called this year’s “brandon bass”) ever amount to anything….

Just that Jefferies contract though… ugh.

Now on to the Miller thing. I read this post earlier today and kinda sat on the idea of having him here… evaluating minute distribution for everyone, what roles JET, Kidd, Miller and Josh would all have on the team, possible injury situations, defense, offense… everything… And the more I think about this, the more I kinda like it actually. I mean, defensively, its not really ideal to that of Marion, Artest, AK-47-type players… buts it would be a terrific move to throw us back in the mix of things… But a contender?.... well, maybe. I wouldnt say this makes us the favorites by any means, but I would say we would have as good of shot as any, like say we did 2 years ago.

So, ok, why does Minny do this then? Can he be had for Stack, Jones (about 9 mil worth of contracts between the two of them) and cash (to buy out stack most likely)? Do we have to throw in Bass, with a them already having a promising Jefferson? Picks? Or are they just looking for expirings and picks to rebuild with?

Ideally, if this deal could be done with cash, 2nd-ers, and Stack and Jones… do this in a heartbeat. That would be equal in my eyes to the deals LA and Houston got for their players. If you throw in Bass though… well, I’d have to think this deal over some more… Minny is pretty deep though at the 4-5, with Love, Jefferson, and Smith (who is practically the same size as Bass)... and they ARE a bit thin at the 2-3… so I could see them wanting to make a move to get a two for 1 deal at that position.

This roster would then have a starting 5 of: Kidd, Miller, J5, Dirk, Diop… and then JET, Bass, and Damp being the significant bench players.

Thats as good of an 8 man playoff rotation as I can think of right now… I likey. Probably dreaming a bit… but its definitely worth a shot. Great idea IW

by Toddy on Jul 31, 2008 9:39 PM CDT up 0 recs