Western Conf. Rank 'em thread
by Toddy on Jul 28, 2008 4:31 PM CDT
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PrintHat tip to N41D for posting this a few days ago in the fan shots...
Rank the West, in terms of playoff positioning as you see it as of right now...
SI.com's is reporting it's early rankings of the West (and more pre-season awards) They have Dallas at the 4th spot:
Plausible surprises
2. The Mavericks. Rick Carlisle is an efficiency expert with a track record of getting the most out of his teams over the regular season. Who's to say that he can't find ways to squeeze 55 or more wins out of a deep roster led by Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and a rejuvenated Josh Howard?
Thats what he has to say really about the Mavs, and here is the rankings as Ian Thomsen sees it.
- Lakers
- Jazz
- Hornets
- Mavs
- Spurs
- Rockets
- Suns
- Trail Blazers
- Clippers
- Nuggets
- Warriors
I tend to be hesitant to put Dallas above the Spurs right now, because they seem to still be adding quite a few pieces to their team. Still, I think I would switch those two teams up. I dont see us any better or worse than the Rockets or Suns, and actually see the Blazers, Clips, and even Warriors as all being sleepers. So here are my pre-season rankings...
- Lakers
- Hornets
- Jazz
- Spurs
- Mavs
- Suns
- Trail Blazers
- Rockets
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Jazz are way overrated
I don’t understand why everyone loves the Jazz so much. They had the 6th best record in the West, and the present roster has yet to beat a quality team in the playoffs (although Golden State beat a quality team like Dallas because of a favorable matchup, that doesn’t mean the Warriors were themselves a quality team).
Assuming that everyone in the conference is healthy—Bynum, the three best Spurs, Oden, Yao and Tracy, Baron and Camby, I mean everyone—then this is how I see the rankings:
1. Lakers
2. Hornets
3. Spurs
4. Trailblazers
5. Rockets
6. Clippers
7. Mavericks
8. Jazz
with the Suns and Warriors also vying for spots 6-8. The Nuggets will be a distant 11th.
No doubt you’ll accuse me of homerism, but I really don’t see how the Mavericks are any better than the Clippers, much less the Spurs, Blazers, and Rockets at full strength.
Mavericks and Clippers
I really don’t see how the Mavericks are any better than the Clippers
Let me help you see my friend. Mind you, I respect your opinion and dont mean to harp you in any way… but let me make an arguement for as why the Mavs on paper are a class above the Clippers, never mind the the Blazers and Rockets.
Since your rankings here are based on everyone being completely healthy, let’s go on the basis of that for now. I will still debate this with you as long as you keep in mind though that in a realistic situation, the odds tend to favor our best players vs your best players injury wise, given that both 31 year old Boom-dizzle and and 34 year old Camby have both had a bad history of injuries… But anything can happen to anyone, and the Mavs have had some mysterious ankle and groin injuries over the years, so I wont factor that in.
Our big 3 vs the Clippers Big… uh 3, 4? Is there a definite 3rd option on this team?
Kidd vs Baron: While the play of Baron surpasses that of Kidd, not only because of age and athleticism, but because of shooting as well, Kidd’s defense is still fairly respectable, his play-making abilities are in the top 3-4 in the league still, and he has years of experience in playoffs and even the Finals. As much as I hate to say this, I still would give the nod to the younger and supposedly healthy Baron in a one on one match up against Kidd. Adavantage: Clippers
Mobley and Thorton vs JET and J5. I dont know which of these guys you would call your 2nd or 3rd best player, so we’ll combine the 3rd and 4th best of the Clippers with our 3rd and 4th.
Thorton is an up and coming player, who I think has a lot of potential to one day be where Josh is at today, a 20 and 7 SF. Even with the supposed “bad year” Josh had last year, he still managed career numbers. Most seem to forget also, that when Dirk went down, he also nearly average 30 points a game in that 2 week stretch. Mobley on the other hand, has been a nice SG for some time for you guys, but at 13 points per game, with him starting some games and not starting others, I wonder if the 32 year old’s numbers wont start to decline some this year. Especially with him now having to compete a little more with Ricky Davis. JET, at 31, came off the bench for us for a good part of the season, yet still managed about 15.5 ppg… all while averaging about 4 min per game LESS than Mobley… Advanatage… Mavs.
Dirk vs Kamen. Do I really need to go there? I hope not. Advantage: Mavs
Bench play. I can say the status of our bench is quite uncertain in the back court and SF position, but Bass and Diop alone could possibly start on a lot of teams. We have guys like Stackhouse (who seemingly hit a game winner against you guys last year if I remember correctly) and maybe even Green and Wright could potentially bring it on any given night, but I dont count them on being significant bench contributors. The bench I see from what the Clippers have as of now includes that of… well Tim Thomas? Ricky Davis, Nick Fazekas and Jason Hart? Jordan has a lot of upside, but I just cant see him this year making a huge impact. Advantage Mavs
Front office. Yes, much to what you may or may not like to believe, beyond the players and talent, the front office of the respected teams CAN impact how the teams could end up. Mavericks have had 50+win seasons since 2001 (I think, maybe since 200), last year we won 52 games, and that was a “disappointing year” to both the fans and management. The Clippers on the other hand have made it to the playoffs once, maybe twice since then if I remember correctly. Should the season go forward, and the Mavericks FO feel as though they are on the brink of not making the playoffs, its fair to say that all players, issues and trades will be addressed at all costs to get this team back on track. Can the same be said of the current Clippers management and ownership? I honestly dont know, but from what I have been able to see so far, I’d put my money on Cuban. Advantage: Mavs.
Now I think the Clippers could be sleepers this year, and step in to the playoff picture, but today’s Clippers vs today’s Mavericks both in the regular season and a 7 game series? Nah. If Brand were still on this team, its a different story. Lets see how the chemistry goes first, with no Maggette, no Brand, and an ill-tempered Davis, 34 year old Camby, and up and coming Thorton.
If you have any doubts about my points, and feel as though I’m swinging on the Mavs more than you would like, please feel free to go to the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Jazz, and NO blogs and put up a poll on who they would rather see in the playoffs, or better yet, who they would have an easier time winning a regular season game against. Let me know how it goes…
Well, I take that back...
They might be. But they aren’t better than Dallas or Utah, or Phoenix…
No depth. That bench is miserable… Depending on which one starts, Mobley/Gordon will be the only guy on the bench that even looks like a legitimate NBA rotation player. Tim Thomas has always and will always be a scrub… Fazekas, Powell, Jason Hart, Marcus Williams… Ugh…
Just not a believer in that team yet…
Not really a Jazz fan...
but if there was another team in the NBA that I would consider myself a fan of, it would be the Jazz. They are arguably a top 3 team in the West right now. CP3 is the best PG in the league but I’d say that my fellow Texan, D-Will, is a close 2nd. Boozer, when he is on top of his game and not being a lazy @$$, is a very good PF. They have some nice complimentary role players like Brewer, Okur and Harpring. And it amazes me how Jerry Sloan has yet to win a Coach of the Year award despite the things his teams have accomplished. I know this is a Mavs blog and I love them to death, but I have to stick up for the Jazz here and say that no, they are not overrated. If they keep their core in tact and add some pieces here and there, they will be a team in championship contention for many seasons to come.
It doesn't matter if you win or lose, as long as you come in first.
by Super Saiyan Patrick on Jul 29, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
funny, i thought they played bball 5 on 5 ...
let’s match it up by position—EVERY position:
PG: Davis vs. Kidd Advantage CLIPPERS
SF: Thornton vs. Howard Advantage MAVERICKS (for now)
PF: Camby vs. Nowitzki Advantage MAVERICKS
C: Kaman vs. Dampier Advantage CLIPPERS (big time)
(note that if you swing Nowitzki to C, then Camby has the advantage at PF over Bass or Diop)
So really it comes down to Terry and Stackhouse vs. Mobley and Ricky Davis and our #7 pick, Eric Gordon. I don’t really see a clear advantage—Terry might be slightly better than our 3 guys, but Stackhouse is slightly worse.
And the nice thing about the Clippers is that we are a lot more versatile than Dallas—we can match up reasonably well defensively with any team in the conference, from the big bad Lakers to the run and gun Warriors, which is a capability that the Mavs simply do not have.
Overall, then, the talent level is about the same, and the Clippers will probably play better defense. So over the course of a long season, I expect the Clippers to win one or two more games.
btw, if you want to appeal to other boards, perhaps you should ask NO and GS fans who they would rather face in a 7 game series.
Hmmm...
Ok. I really want to make sure I understand your points here.
So with your match-ups here, you have essentially proposed that the possible match ups are about even then correct? (never mind the fact the advantage difference within each matchup) 2 for the Mavs, 2 for the Clippers, with the sg spot I guess being a toss up because Stackhouse is slightly worse than… RD?
I guess I am a little confused as to why a Clipper fan can say anything negative about our “whipping stick”, other than they dislike him… Just so I know, you did see this game last year... right?
Does bench play any factor into your reasoning?
So all is even with the starting 5, but the thing that tips the scale for you and the Clippers over the Mavs is that the Clippers are more versatile and are better defensively?
As you see it then, the additions of Baron Davis, RD and Camby, and losing Maggette and Brand (though I know he didnt play much last year) you essentially see the Clippers opponents going from averaging 101 ppg to below 96 ppg with these “defensive” additions?
And is the following a swipe at our recent playoff woes?....
if you want to appeal to other boards, perhaps you should ask NO and GS fans who they would rather face in a 7 game series.
cuz, uh… coming from a Clipper fan?... I surely hope you didnt mean for it to come across like I interpreted it, which is a swipe at us getting knocked out in the past two first rounds. Please explain…
I just would like to make sure this is my understanding before I really comment on what you have said above… feel free to clarify any of my possible misunderstandings, rethink or take back anything you might have suggested, or further dig deeper on why you think the Clippers are presumably going to go from 23 wins, to well over 50.
you understand me correctly
the difference between Baron and Kidd is, to my mind, the same as the difference between Dirk and Camby. and the difference between Howard and Thornton is less than the difference between Kaman and Dampier/Diop/Bass.
so although Terry might confer a small advantage at SG, it’s offset by the playing time I anticipate Stackhouse will get—you did see him play the rest of the year, right? honestly, I don’t think he would even crack our 2nd unit. i’ll take Ricky and the promise of Gordon over him any day.
Call me crazy, but i think that adding a Defensive Player of the Year will in fact improve our defense.
That was a swipe, but it is also accurate: the Clippers match up better against New Orleans and Golden State. Is that really such a controversial statement?
The strength of the western conference last year was an anomaly. I think 48 might be enough for the 6 seed this year.
And the more relevant comparison for the Clippers is not to last year, but rather two years ago, when the Clippers were reasonably healthy and won 40 games. Are they 8 games better this year, having lost Cassell, Maggette, and Brand, but added Davis, Thornton, Camby, and a resurgent Kaman? If they stay healthy, I believe the answer is yes, absolutely.
Similarly, I don’t really see why Dallas won’t get a little worse. Three of your 6 main guys (Kidd, Stack, Damp) are pretty old by NBA standards, and their play should get even worse, Dirk and Terry have already plateaued, and Howard’s development seems to have slightly stalled.
Perspective
the difference between Baron and Kidd is, to my mind, the same as the difference between Dirk and Camby.
Really? Cuz last time I check, Kidd was a 9 time all star, 9 time all NBA defensive player (not even Camby can make that claim), and the starter of todays current USA Olympic team. Has Baron, (or anyone else from the Clippers, other than Kamen who plays for a talent-deprived German team) participated in either or achieved quite as much as Kidd? I give you that numbers wise right now, Baron has a step on Kidd, but the gap of what each does for their respected teams is much smaller than you think… definitely not Dirk and Camby difference. Kidd carries a different load than Baron does, but while Baron’s role and play may be a little bit more significant than Kidd’s, their respective roles and loads are not too far off.
i think that adding a Defensive Player of the Year will in fact improve our defense.
No your not crazy in thinking that… but look at the team from which he just came from and where they ranked defensively. Look at who the second worst team was, and what major superstar you just added from that squad… I’m not yet convinced that the way the clippers are set up as of now, that by some mysterious force they are somehow defensively in the same league as the Spurs, Pistons… or Mavs… who had the 6th best defensive squad in the NBA last year.
Are they 8 games better this year, having lost Cassell, Maggette, and Brand, but added Davis, Thornton, Camby, and a resurgent Kaman? If they stay healthy, I believe the answer is yes, absolutely.
I think this is fair assessment, and I agree whole-heartedly that if they stay healthy, chemistry works out well, this could be a 45-50 win team. But last time I checked, in last years playoff hunt, how many teams below 48 win teams made it into the playoffs? Ask Baron, he will know. I will also argue that losing an All-star forward, in a heavily talented west of Forwards, and gaining Camby and a “resurgent Kamen” is really an upgrade. Cuz thats essentially the difference in your front court from that year.
Three of your 6 main guys (Kidd, Stack, Damp) are pretty old by NBA standards, and their play should get even worse, Dirk and Terry have already plateaued, and Howard’s development seems to have slightly stalled.
I’m glad you brought this up actually, cuz now you’re bringing up things that go deeper than just on court play, and while you bring up age, you then have to bring up the injury factor. Again, what you said here is a fair assessment of the Mavs… it could very likely happen… but its more like wishful thinking. Stack is at best the 8th best player on this team right now, behind the starting 5, and Diop and Bass. I am sure he appreciates though you placing him so highly on this team though.
While Kidd, Howard, Damp, Dirk and say Jet all have an average age of about 31 (29.8 if you put in Diop instead of Damp, which some seem to suggest that Diop is going to start over him anyway), the Clippers starting 5 age is right at 29 years old. So is the age factor really a valid point? 1, maybe two years?... I dont know.
I do know this though, that Kobe at 29, Pierce at 30, Garnett at 32, Nash when Dallas let him go at 32, Jordan at 32 when he came back from retirement, Tim Duncan, are/were all in their primes and actually either have excelled to become better players than what they were before, or have continued to all play in their primes right around this age period… So with that in mind, what makes you think that Dirk, at recently turned 30, does not have least one or two more really good seasons left of prime play?
Again, I am not saying the Clippers are bad by any means, I just think there are a lot of what-if’s in supporting your theory. What if the Mavs players start declining, what if the Clippers stay healthy, what if the Clippers chemistry works out… etc. I know about what to expect from the Mavs, because the core of this roster has been together for the past 4 years… but from the Clippers stand point, there is too many questions. Same with the Warriors and Blazers. Its why those three teams are my sleepers this year. But if all you see the Clippers achieving at best is 48 wins this next year… well, that probably isnt going to cut it. Not with the way the West is currently constructed.
Going from Brand to Camby...
Is a significant downgrade, regardless of how you slice it…
You look at how that team is constructed right now, and you’re relying on two guys in Camby and Davis that have significant injury concerns… I’d argue that this team really isn’t that much better than the one we saw after Brand came back… They basically traded Maggette and Brand for Baron and Camby. Don’t see that as a clear upgrade at all.
Assuming they’re healthy, to me that’s still a team in the fringe playoff group that could sneak in if they catch a break or two… With the signing of Ricky Davis, their bench consists of 3 players who basically play the same position and do the same things. What’s the difference between Mobley, Davis, and Tim Thomas? I don’t see much. All three can score a little but don’t do much of anything else. That bench is awful.
+1
They basically traded Maggette and Brand for Baron and Camby. Don’t see that as a clear upgrade at all.
I mean it could work… but again, there are a lot of “what-if’s” for it to work the way I’m looking at it…. yet it could still work and they sneak into the bottom half of the playoff picture.
The Mavs “what-ifs” as most people see it are, “what if” everything goes well, we should be a title contender… not “what if” everything goes well we should make it into the bottom half of the playoff picture.
Suns view
here is more to contradict your theory what your team is… From RD, to perhaps the Clippers surly surpassing the Mavericks, it seriously has the rest of us laughing.
Replacing Cory Maggette with Ricky Davis is just a thing of beauty but the best part is how the eternal optimists known as Clippers Fans are finding the good in the situation….he’s cheap…he’s killed the Clips in the past…he’s cheap….he’s a chucklehead but he’s ours….he’s cheap
Phoenixstan goes on to even say…
Some day I want to do a Q&A with ClipperSteve and his band of followers.I have real and genuine questions about the make-up of a Clippers Fan. I mean this in a serious study of human behavior kind of way and not as a put-down to Clippers Fans.
I am truly fascinated by what it takes to follow that team in that town. Its really a unique situation in sports fan paradigms..I have my theories and would like to test them in a highly un-empirical manner
Perhaps you should take him up on this….
....personally
i still think mavs have an edge in terms of overall experience…. but then again i’m a mavs fan… and we’re all guilty of a little personal bias whether we like it or not….
let the players do the talking on the court…
Mine
1. Hornets
2. Lakers
3. Jazz
4. Rockets
5. Spurs
6. Trail Blazers
7. Mavs
8. Pheonix
Hornets, Lakers, Jazz, and Spurs get in the second round
Hornets and Jazz get tot he third round
And Hornets win the West
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
i would put
spurs, hornets, suns, jazz, rockets, lakers above the mavs
i wanna see blazers play more before i put them over the mavs
no way do i put the clippers over the mavs. no way.
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