Looking at The Numbers: What is Wrong with the Mavericks

by Phillip Baggett on Dec 7, 2009 5:00 PM CST Comment 3 comments

Well I started to write a big long post about the Mavericks recent struggles, and how that those struggles are the direct effect of not having Josh Howard. However I must be honest, the more stats, graphs, and charts that I looked at the more confused I became.

zdgmans and I were having a discussion this morning about this ridiculous "3 guard" line up that Carlisle has fallen in love with. My early thoughts were that the coaches had actually snookered themselves with this line up. I just could not grasp the thought process of this thing. Carlisle seems to go to this (Kidd, Jason Terry, JJ Barea) exclusively against longer more athletic teams, and even more puzzling at the end of games.

This is so puzzling to me because as I see the line up, Carlisle sacrifices ~~shooting~~ scoring ability with quickness. Do not get me wrong speed in the NBA is a wonderful tool that not many teams have, however a fast team that shoots 30% from the field is far worse than a slow team that shoots 50%.

Maybe I am wrong but my thoughts on how this line up is designed to work are this:

Jason Kidd: The Facilitator

JJ Barea: The speedster, uses his speed to create open shots for others

Jason Terry: The lethal shooter

Unfortunately for the Mavericks and us what has ended up happening is teams have started focusing their coverage on Jet and Kidd, allowing Barea to screw things up on his own.

Barea can be very good in 2 to 4 minute stints, but he absolutely demoralizes this team when left in the game for extended minutes. Here is where the real problem arises for Carlisle and the Mavs. The Mavs do not have a true PG on the bench to back up Kidd, and outside of the youngster Roddy B they do not have a SG either.

In Carlisle's defense he is trying to cover up the Mavs deficiencies by forcing the tempo of the game, but he just does not have the right pieces to be able to do that effectively.

I like many of you want to see Rodrigue Beaubois in place of JJ Barea. The only problem with Beaubois is the unknown, but even in his limited minutes we have seen some very good things, but we have also seen some not so good, in the end he has been average.

So where do we go from here? If I had the answer to that question I would not be here writing to you for free. Yes I have my opinions, as I am sure you do as well.

There are a few things that will need to happen before this team can become more consistent. First and foremost stop shooting so many jump shots and begin to attack the basket. Secondly, end the "3 guard" experiment (surely there is another way to combat length). Last but certainly not least the healthy return of Josh Howard. Josh means more to this team than I ever gave him credit for, and we desperately need him back.

During my search I found some pretty interesting stats and factoids take a look and let me know what you think.

Clutch Statistics

(4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left,
neither team ahead by more than 5 points)

JJ Barea

Floor Time statistics

Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
59%	-16	98.6	124.9	-26.3	3	4	42.9%

Rodrigue Beaubois

Floor Time statistics

Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
10%	+2	105.6	86.4	19.2	1	0	100.0%

Jason Kidd

Floor Time statistics

Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
100%	-6	102.3	108.2	-5.9	5	4	55.6%

Jason Terry

Floor Time statistics

Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
100%	-6	102.3	108.2	-5.9	5	4	55.6%

Team shooting story:

Shooting Details

	Offense				Defense
Shot	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts
Jump	69%	.465	63%	53.8	67%	.455	57%	50.5
Close	24%	.544	56%	22.1	28%	.513	47%	24.0
Dunk	4%	.900	79%	6.3	4%	.917	67%	5.5
Tips	3%	.451	0%	2.3	2%	.467	0%	1.4
All	100%	.502	60%	84.6	100%	.488	54%	81.3

Team shot selection rankings:

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Comments

We are doing fine without Josh

Still, we need him healthy to really contend.

by mg4tx on Dec 7, 2009 5:48 PM CST reply actions

Carlisie is pissing me off with his use of Barea. Leave him on the damn bench because when he’s on the floor, he’s useless, his speed amounts to nothing except speedy turnovers. He doesn’t know how to drive then kick it out. (He tried it against the Hawks in the fourth quarter (I laughed so hard).

He’s not a player you rely on in this league. He might be a 10 minute a game guy, Rick needs to realize it now, and start giving Rodrique a chance. He has to learn to make good plays, and he has the potential and skill set to make them but he gets not playing time and that’s the only way he’ll learn. Not 10 minutes a game, playing in the first quarter and maybe a little second then riding the bench to JJ barea. It’s pathetic.

by Why on Dec 7, 2009 11:20 PM CST reply actions

Well, 82’s numbers say substitute barea with beaubois (although Handsome Woods only had 5 minutes of crunchtime in the ot vs jennings) to cut down on those horrible defensive disadvantages.

Problem is, Carlisle refuses (so far) to do that. Who trusts rookies, anyway? Beside, Rodrigue has yet to play the (backup) pg spot, so he would be cold after sitting one hour…. and he might be in the doghouse after the atlanta game, at worst.

Ross has similar bad stats in his short time.

Carlisle would like to use kidd, howard, terry, marion, dirk as his crunchtime unit.
Since howard is unavailable and marion nurses his ankle, we had to watch gooden and barea as substitutes. results are known.

The Charles Barkley 2009/10 Ancestors Count: 3 Grandmothers , 0 Mother Alltime: Reg. 26-0 Playoffs 7-0

"There were arms coming from everywhere, and I knew they weren’t going for the ball," Miller said. "I was just trying to get [the shot] up before they called some crap like ‘on the ground.’ "
"What do you want me to do?" Wright asked. "Do you want me to Derek Fisher him?"
"Give them some fucking credit, i mean for real." Jackson said.
"I just fell on my face for no reason," Bryant deadpanned. "I'm a klutz."
"Fucking right i'm preachin' it!" Carlisle replied.
"Rough life, isn't it. It's tough all over, isn't it." Smith chuckled.
Sheed for $30k: "They've got to know that he's a [darn] flopper. That's all Turkododo do."
Mutombo, Ewing and Yao at the restaurant...
MUTOMBO: "The chicken is the bomb."
EWING: [Rubbing belly] "I gotta go work out tonight. I'm full. You got a treadmill for me?"
YAO: " Leave your car keys here and run home. I'll give you the keys tomorrow."

by DOH on Dec 8, 2009 8:21 AM CST reply actions