With and Without Josh Howard

by Wes Cox on Apr 10, 2009 1:09 AM CDT in News

"By me being able to come back myself and give them what I can give them while I'm out there, that's what I'm doing," the former All-Star told NBA.com. "I think they're feeding a lot off me. Sometimes it takes bumps in the road to figure out you're the X-factor. I've really realized this year by being in and out that I need to be out there no matter what."

"It's more of a team thing now," said Howard, his left eye bloodshot. "Us as players aren't focusing on what's going on in the front office or what's going on with coach. It's just us playing. That's the way it's got to be.

"We've been up and down all season trying to figure out rotations and stuff like that. No more worrying about why I'm not playing or why coach isn't speaking to me. We've got a job to do.'

Those are some pretty interesting Josh Howard quotes from Art Garcia's very good article at NBA.com. The last two games with Josh got me thinking - has there been any major quantifiable differences when the Mavs have Howard available?

I ran the numbers hoping to make some great revelation but remarkably found almost nothing.

With Josh Howard
Record	%	OWN PPG	OPP PGG	STL	TOV	3PA	REB%	PACE	OFF EFF	DEF EFF
31-18	.633	101.9	99.4	7.47	12.55	19.49	50.14%	93.36	108.89	105.93

Without Josh Howard
Record	%	OWN PPG	OPP PGG	STL	TOV	3PA	REB%	PACE	OFF EFF	DEF EFF
16-13	.552	102.3	101.3	7.07	12.07	20.62	50.25%	93.67	108.50	106.60

Nothing there that makes your eyes pop, except for maybe the first two columns -- the only ones that count in the end.

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weird

“It’s more of a team thing now,” said Howard, his left eye bloodshot. "Us as players aren’t focusing on what’s going on in the front office or what’s going on with coach. It’s just us playing. That’s the way it’s got to be.

Did I miss something? Seems like an odd thing to note…..btw, my right eye kinda itches as I type this, just so you know.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Apr 10, 2009 7:59 AM CDT reply actions

It just a reference to his busted eye.

probably pretty bloodshot when the swelling started going down.

www.mavsmoneyball.com

by Wes Cox on Apr 10, 2009 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah I guess I missed the busted eye thing

and I admit I didn’t read the article, just saw what you posted, so screw me.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Apr 10, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions

Defense.

Statistically, it doesn’t show much, but I think his defense – especially in situations – has been sorely missed. I’ll even go as far to say that they miss The Devean George for the same reason.

Sure hope they can keep the offense crankin’ like this…otherwise, it’s gonna be a short run.

by DitchThePlaybook on Apr 10, 2009 8:26 AM CDT reply actions

I'm glad that Josh finally gets it

It took a while, but now he knows he is a difference maker on this team and that when he plays his best, the Mavs can be pretty dangerous.

No more worrying about why I’m not playing or why coach isn’t speaking to me.

I wonder if this really happened or if it’s a hypothetical example.

"You know what they say about love and war."
"Yeah, one of them involves a large amount of physical and psychological pain and the other's war."

by Marie on Apr 10, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions

I thought that, too

My guess is that Carlisle just doesn’t talk to anyone. He had the reputation for a long long time.

by Jakedfw on Apr 10, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions

I bet it really happened

but not necessarily to Josh. I think he was talking about the treatment the role players get. Like not playing for weeks on end…

by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 10, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions

He hasn't made a lick of difference

For most of the season, Josh has been like a chamelean—his performance has mirrored the team. Just look at the efficiency figures for about as good an example of this as anything.

However, I’m more interested in how the Mavericks have performed in the last three games, two with Josh and one without. It very much looks like Josh has finally figured out that he can make a difference, especially on the defensive end.

It is distinctly possible that Josh actually is “the most important Maverick” in terms of our defense. Our defense has been just crap this year, but over the past few games with Josh it has looked very very sharp. How sad would it be that if all it took for the Mavs to be an elite team during the season was for Josh to have played hard on defense?

by Jakedfw on Apr 10, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions

The fact that those stats don't reflect the W-L gap

just goes to show how ineffective basketball stats really are… Offensive and defensive efficiency are great for superficial comparisons between teams, but clearly don’t capture the whole picture.

by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 10, 2009 10:22 AM CDT reply actions

Yes and no

The trouble with a smaller sample set like this is that a defensive efficiency against a lot of strong offensive teams will look like crap but is good, but the same defensive efficiency against crap offensive teams really is terrible.

So, yes, you need to actually know what is going on beyond the numbers, but it doesn’t mean that efficiency isn’t very effective for assessing a team’s overall strength of performance.

by Jakedfw on Apr 10, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions

i concede the point

but I’m stubbornly not going to budge from my stance that basketball just simply isn’t as well-suited to statistical analysis as other sports. :P

On a side note, another thing that might be messing with these samples is how well other the rest of the team has been playing.

The team might play just as well, overall, in a game in November with Josh as they did in a game in March without Josh, just because of the way this team has come together over the past couple months. I’m not sure if the off/def efficiencies relative to competition bear that out, but I know from watching that the James Singletons on this team have certainly gotten better over the course of the season. Carlisle’s wonky schizo depth chart certainly can’t help continuity as far as stats are concerned, either.

by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 10, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions

What I'm wondering is who did we play in those games with Howard and without?

Did we just happen to play a lot of solid teams when we didn’t play with Howard?

S-St. Louis, R-Rams, D-Dallas, M-Mavericks, A-Arizona, D-Diamondbacks.

by srdmad on Apr 10, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions

I was going to add a column for opp win%

but it was going to take too long. I still might go back and do it.

www.mavsmoneyball.com

by Wes Cox on Apr 10, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions

From what i can remember ...

The first time Josh was out in december or something like that, we played a lot of crap teams. And actually had a very good record when Josh was out. Maybe that is inflating our numbers without him.

by hugommorais on Apr 10, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Well ... I think somebody has to do the same thing ...

But comparing the mavs with and without Devean George. Since he is out we don’t have the player that you can always count on a air balled 3 pointer, a crucial turnover at the 4th quarter, a missed switch on rotations. You know, he always seems to be playing D, but he is not really doing that, he is just acting like it. Since he is out, our bench has improved a lot because we gave the chance to the young guys to play more.
And when the Good Josh plays, we are a totally different team. Maybe not by the numbers, but at least the last time he was out Dirk and Jet shot something like 30% from the field. Since he is back, they are close to 60%. He takes some pressure off them. We need him, it’s simple.

by hugommorais on Apr 10, 2009 2:35 PM CDT reply actions