JTF's Mock Draft and analysis of the Mavs' options
I'd like to get this drafting talk going as soon as possible, so I've decided to go with a mock-drafting the first round. Along with drafting choices for each team, I'll try and justify selection for each pick, and then stop a few picks before the Mavs' pick to see what could still be left on the board.
Now, I know there's been a lot of discussion about teams making their first-rounders available for a multitude of reasons, but I'll skip past that. I might hypothesise a little into certain teams trading down to get the players they're looking for and some, but that'll be it. For now, this mock draft will probably be held in its current context, because I have no clue what could happen between now and July.
So onto the mock. I'll source from three spots: NBADraft.net, ESPN.com's Chad Ford's Mock Draft 1.0 and DraftExpress. Right now, their takes on the Mavs' pick at #22:
NBADraft.net: Jeff Teague, PG, Wake Forest
Chad Ford: Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina
DraftExpress: Tyler Hansbrough (God, please not let that be), PF, North Carolina
Right now, the Mavs' have a shitload of needs but at that spot #22, the only player they're probably going to get is either a point guard or an athletic swingman-type, unless a post scorer falls. I don't see them drafting a project forward, but I'll get to that later.
JTF's Mock Draft:
1. LA Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma - The consensus #1, so I'm not going to go over this one. The Clips are going to find some way to dump Zach Randolph. I'm curious to see if we can really make that deal for Baron Davis and Chris Kaman.
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain - The Grizzlies have a problem here, as they're currently filled at center (Marc Gasol) and point guard (Mike Conley). This choice probably would've been made easier if it hadn't been for Conley stepping up in a big way down the stretch last season after being in trade discussions for a couple of months. But I don't see Memphis passing on a guy like Rubio, even if it's relegating Conley (who could probably net them some pretty good value considering his tools and recent performance). I suppose if Rubio really doesn't want play in Memphis or Oklahoma City, he could back out, but I think that would be unlikely right now. The last time this business came up with Dan Fegan and Yi, it eventually got sorted and that's probably what's going to happen here.
There's a chance that Memphis trades down just a little to get Jordan Hill (perhaps a deal with Sacramento, who could use a PG?), but if Rubio goes here and not to the Thunder, I'd be relieved. OKC would look shit-in-pants scary even with Westbrook playing off-the-ball (Rubio, Westbrook, Durant, Green and a solid center in Nick Collison).
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn - I'm not a big fan of Thabeet, but he seems like the obvious pick here (unless they're reaching for Hill), as a rebounding, shot-blocking presence in the paint, the guy they nearly got in Tyson Chandler. If he does those things right and keeps hitting that mid-range jumper which he's developing, while honing his low-post skills, the Thunder look in really good shape with all the other scoring they have. He feels kinda like a project to me though...or maybe it's a relapse of guys like Michael Olowokandi.
4. Sacramento Kings: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona - The Kings really need a point guard. Really, really. I figure they're set at three positions (SG with Kevin Martin, PF with Jason Thompson and C with Spencer Hawes) and they have a number of swingmen to roll at SF. But Beno Udrih and Bobby Jackson aren't very encouraging, considering how Udrih managed to regress. Sactown might deal up to get Rubio or move down to get Brandon Jennings and if they do so, I still think Hill's going here. I'm a big fan of Jason Thompson but he's still rather erratic, which might be the case with Hill too. I like these two as a complement to one another but I'm not so sure it'll work, which is why I see some sort of trade involving this pick with the Kings.
5. Washington Wizards: James Harden, SG, Arizona State - Really, Washington? Selling a pick here for cap relief? I don't blame them but picking Harden here would finally give them a legit running mate with Gilbert Arenas in the backcourt, especially considering how DeShawn Stevenson took a massive step back since the playoffs debacle with LeBron. Picking Harden here would give the Wiz four capable scorers from all over the court, but I wouldn't be surprised if they decided that three is enough and use this pick as an asset to free up cap space (great GMship to give in to Gilbert and his demands for a max contract...)
6. Minnesota Timberwolves: DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, USC - Is the Corey Brewer experiment in Minneapolis over? He's only been in the league for two years and suffered a tough injury, but is he really an NBA-calibre player? At one point, we were discussing the fact that DeRozan might even fall as far to where Dallas were (when they were #8 in the West), but that's out of the equation now.
7. Golden State Warriors: Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy - If Jennings is still there at #7, it should be a no-doubter for the Warriors. In that way, they have no reservations about letting Crawford go (as if they would even now, I guess), can move Ellis back to his natural position (and run the point when necessary). Jennings would probably settle things back into a natural order in the Bay, but until they fire Nellie, the Warriors are still doomed to mediocrity and losing 200-point games. Fun to watch though.
8. New York Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Davidson - I kinda thought about Earl Clark here, because he seems just as good a fit in D'Antoni's system as Curry, and that the Knicks might've needed frontcourt help. Then I realized Clark hardly projects a PF or C (where they're running Al Harrington and David Lee) and they're mixing Wilson Chandler, Larry Hughes and Quentin Richardson at SF. Depending on how much his height disadvantages, Curry will either fit in quite nicely as a combo guard or struggle at shooting guard.
9. Toronto Raptors: Earl Clark, SF/PF, Louisville - I'm not envious of the Raptors. I think a lot of this choice will hinge on whether they can keep Anthony Parker in free agency this summer. I don't think Shawn Marion is coming back, which leaves an opening for Clark to join a frontcourt where he could alternate with Bargnani at SF and PF and see if Bosh can play center. If the Raptors let Parker go and reacquire Marion (probably not, they still need to find some way to keep Bosh in 2010), or even resign both, I see them picking up another guard, which I would say is either Tyreke Evans or Gerald Henderson. For now, I'm sticking with Clark.
10. Milwaukee Bucks: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh - I don't see Charlie Villaneuva coming back (should command a lot after a stellar season), but I think they're going to be able to resign Ramon Sessions to continue the PG tandem with Luke Ridnour (who I think is a little underrated). Unless they're planning to unload Michael Redd or Richard Jefferson for financial reasons, I don't think they're going to pick a swingman, and with Villaneuva likely to leave, they'll need a replacement at PF. Blair's stock has dropped a little but he was brilliant on the boards in college and a solid post scorer, and I'm not hugely concerned about the weight.
11. New Jersey Nets: Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Duke - I think this is where things start to go a little more skewed (maybe at the #10 pick for Milwaukee). The Nets are set in the backcourt with Devin and Vince Carter, and set at center with Brook Lopez. After that, there's plenty of holes. It doesn't look like Yi Jianlian will ever adjust to the pace of the NBA, but the Nets are probably going to give him another chance at PF and put Sean Williams and Ryan Anderson behind him. At SF, it's a complete mixed bag, with Trenton Hassell, Jarvis Hayes and Bobby Simmons all part of the mediocrity at the 3. I was weighing up either Gerald Henderson (seems more polished) or Chase Budinger (higher offensive upside), but I went with Henderson here mostly because he feels more NBA-ready. Henderson's size might be a problem, but then I'm guessing the Nets move Carter back to small forward.
12. Charlotte Bobcats: Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, Memphis - Weird situation here. The Bobcats might finally make a little noise in the East next season and they look all right at every position. They could do with reliable frontcourt help alongside Okafor, but there's nobody in that position. I think they're going to upgrade SG, because Raja Bell isn't going to be there for too long soon, and DJ Augustin is still a little short to play there constantly (like JJ). Actually, this team looks in pretty good shape. I think they could be the new Hawks, they have the assets to get a guy they need in a trade.
13. Indiana Pacers: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU - A lot of people have the Pacers with this pick, and I'd agree. The Pacers need a guy behind (or next to) TJ Ford in the case of injuries, and Maynor's a great fit. Biggest problem for Indy is their defence, which is porous, but I'm not sure how they fix that in this draft.
14. Phoenix Suns: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse - The Suns love Flynn, and he's a perfect match for them with his athleticism and finishing skills at the rim. That up-tempo system in Phoenix probably means he's going to get plenty of opportunities to spark and score the basketball in transition, making him likely to be of more use than Goran Dragic in backing up Steve Nash. As for after that...I'm not sure he sticks as a starting point guard though. But for now, he'll work for the Suns unless they completely blow it up.
15. Detroit Pistons: James Johnson, SF/PF, Wake Forest - I think the Pistons are looking for some frontcourt scoring this summer, with Rasheed Wallace seeming likely to not return. I thought about a guy like Austin Daye here, but he doesn't really feel like a guy they would have implicit trust here. I can't say anything though since I'm no Pistons analyst...
16. Chicago Bulls: Wayne Ellington, SG, North Carolina - My guess is that one of Ben Gordon (too much in FA?) or Kirk Hinrich (trade if they resign Gordon) isn't coming back, which leaves the Bulls with a little bit of a hole at the 2 spot even if they go big and slot John Salmons, a natural small forward there. I like Ellington here as a cheaper replacement for Gordon, with that jumpshot he has.
17. Philadelphia 76ers: Jrue Holiday, PG, UCLA - Probably a big risk to pick a guy like Holiday here and then give him the keys to the offence after a tough year in UCLA playing off the ball, but the Sixers might not bring back Andre Miller, who should command quite a bit in free agency. Still, Holiday has great upside and time to develop and if necessary, I suppose Lou Williams and Andre Iguodala would be around to run that offence.
There's 17 picks down, so I'll stop and take a look at the prospects still on the board. Right now, I would rank them something like this:
Chase Budinger (SG/SF)
Ty Lawson (PG)
Jeff Teague (PG)
Patrick Mills (PG)
Austin Daye (SF/PF)
Terrence Williams (SG/SF)
Sam Young (SF)
BJ Mullens (C)
Tyler Hansbrough (PF)
There's still obviously some very interesting players still there. I've reiterated multiple times that I'd love to get Jeff Teague. I would be fine with any of Chase Budinger, Ty Lawson or Patrick Mills, and would be fine with Williams or Young, but would consider it a little bit of a stretch. If they pick Mullens (project center), Tyler Hansbrough or one of Gani Lawal, Nick Calathes or Austin Daye (not high on them as immediate contributors), I'd be pretty annoyed.
With four picks left until the Mavs' are on the clock, the chance they get any of the first four look pretty good. I'm not sure of Minny's intentions (I'm thinking they're getting a point guard), and Atlanta might pick one to replace Bibby, or get Mullens so they can eventually move Al Horford back to the 4 if it works out. I sense Utah might trade down to get Hansbrough (is he not the perfect fit for Jerry Sloan's system?), and New Orleans will probably choose a wing player (Budinger? Williams?) since they already have the league's best point guard. There seems a good chance the Sixers don't go for Holiday and go the safer route with Ty Lawson, so he could slip to us.
My theory is, there's three point guards plus a few slashers still on the board, and there's only four picks until Dallas picks. They have options to choose from and they better make one that makes sense.
Now only if we could get another early second-rounder...
[ego]Of course, it'd be awesome if this gets frontpage'd as an early "official" look at the Mavs' draft until somebody writes a better one.[/ego]
Reader Submitted
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5 comments
Comments
My thoughts
Lawson, Terrence Williams, Collison, Teague, Paddy Mills
PLEASE no Budinger or Hansbrough
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 27, 2009 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you want white guys
"We play to win the game" - Herm Edwards
by nicholas.rodriguez on May 28, 2009 1:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Serious doubts about Budinger's desire
and Hansbrough is both undersized and lacks upside.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
by jonthefon on May 28, 2009 2:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
conley
i would try to get him from memphis if they draft rubio
im not sure what it would take.
by kumizi on Jun 1, 2009 5:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Some change with all the combines and such
Teague, Flynn both up a lot (Bucks apparently like Teague, Flynn creating a storm).
Hansbrough apparently moved up but not going past Utah and still undesirable as hell.
Jennings down a little (maybe his talk has contributed to it).
Lawson down a little (tournament hype lowering?), Mills dropping as well with concerns about his finishing ability for NBA level
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
by jonthefon on Jun 13, 2009 5:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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