Scattershooting while wondering if Walter Bond ever actually did get twenty shots in a game.

(Bonus points for anyone who gets that reference, and still remembers Blackie Sherrod.)

Since we have a few hours to kill before the real action gets started, I figured I’d go ahead and lay out a few thoughts that have been swirling around my brain during the interminable wait for game one.

Dirk Nowitzki is the most disrespected superstar the game has ever seen.  Is there anyone else in the history of the NBA who has achieved more (eight consecutive All-Star and All-NBA appearances, nine consecutive 50 win seasons, 19,084 career points, the league MVP award, and an NBA Finals appearance), and yet has never been given any kind of credit by the media or (non-Dallas) fans?  Earlier today, I actually heard Jamal Mashburn say the words: “What is Nowitzki going to do when Kenyon Martin gets in his grill?”

For the record, Dirk outscored K-Mart head-to-head 120-30 this year, and 2094-769 for the season.  Somebody’s really got to sit me down and explain to me why that matchup is still being portrayed as anything but an overwhelming disadvantage for Denver.

Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, and Amare Stoudemire are either injured, or have been eliminated from the playoffs.  Dirk is still standing.  ‘Nuff said.

Another fun fact about Dirk.  He’s 5-0 in his career in the deciding game of a tied series (game sevens and game fives, back when the first round was best-of-three).  So if the Nuggets really do want to beat Dallas in seven games, the way so many people are predicting, they’re going to have to do something that Tim Duncan, Tracy McGrady, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, and Karl Malone couldn’t.

Speaking of Tim Duncan, the Mavericks were the first team ever to eliminate him in the first round.  They were also the first team ever to eliminate him on his own home-court, back in 2006, something they duplicated this year.  It really makes you wonder what would’ve happened in the 2003 WCF if Dirk hadn’t gotten hurt.  The Mavericks beat them twice in San Antonio that year too.

The prevailing wisdom around here is that JJ Berea probably isn’t going to get as much playing time in this series as he did against the Spurs, but he actually played pretty well against the Nuggets this year when he got the chance.  In March, he had 22 points, 4 assists, and 2 steals against Denver, and in December he had 12 points, 9 assists, and 2 steals.  Another guy who stepped up in that March game was Ryan Hollins, who had 9 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks in 22 minutes.  He’s going to have to be a factor if they’re going to stop Nene from becoming this year’s Tyson Chandler.

Jason Kidd and Chauncey Billups approach the game in completely different ways at this point in their careers (Kidd having nearly abandoned shooting the ball, except for spot-up threes and open layups, while Chauncey is still putting up nearly 18 ppg), but I really think the matchup favors Kidd.  He doesn’t have the foot speed any more to keep up with young point guards who want to drive to the basket, but against a guy like Chauncey, who wants to shoot five or six three-pointers a game, he’s right in his zone of comfort defensively.  Using his strength to push Billups off of his favorite spots will be much easier than trying to stay in front of Parker or Paul.

Something else that’s been mentioned several times is that Dallas needs to win the rebounding battle.  Kidd should be a huge help there.  The Mavericks actually did outrebound Denver for the season: 41.6 to 42.7, and even out-boarded them three times head-to-head, despite all the talk about matchup problems with Denver’s long, athletic frontcourt.  JK was a big reason for that.

It just goes to show that the Mavericks did a lot of really good things against Denver this year, despite being swept during the season.  They just need to take those small successes and add them up into wins, the way they did against San Antonio, and they should handle their business and move on to the West Finals.

My absurdly bold prediction: Mavs in 5.

It might be blatant homerism, but I also think Dallas just matches up a lot better than everyone else seems to.  I also give Dallas credit for having been here before.  Something that seems to slip everyone’s mind is, while this team has been disappointing (crushingly so) for the last couple of years, it’s also the same basic foundation (Dirk, Josh, Terry, Damp, plus now Jason Kidd) of the team that went to the NBA Finals and then won 67 games not very long ago at all.

This is a team that over the past decade has been in every possible situation imaginable, except actually winning a title.  They’ve lost the first two games of the series and gone on to win it, and they’ve won the first two games of the series and gone on to lose it.  They’ve played up-tempo, grind it out, and everything in between.  They’ve had their hearts broken over and over again, but they just keep getting back up and asking for more, and I dig that about them.

We don’t know how Denver is going to react yet the first time they really get into a hole and people start asking questions.  Chauncey Billups is a leader, but he was also on a team in Detroit that, after winning the championship, featured annual meltdowns every bit as dramatic as anything Dallas has done.  I actually had a discussion with a friend a couple of years ago about whether or not the Mavericks should pursue him in free agency, and the question I kept asking myself was: “How could this guy keep us from imploding when the team he’s already on implodes every year?”

If I’m wrong, I’ll be the first one to stand up and say it, but I like Dallas in this series and I don’t think it’ll take seven games.