Did Otis Smith outsmart Donnie, or himself?

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 14, 2009 8:32 AM CDT Comment 35 comments

Having been one of the people most convinced that Otis Smith had no intention of matching the offer sheet for Gortat, I was pretty shocked when the news came down on Monday that they had done just that. The popular theory in Mavericks-Land is that Otis was playing Donnie the whole time. My personal theory is that the man has no idea what he's doing.

When free agency began, Hedo Turkoglu was probably the hottest player available. He had just come off an excellent performance in the NBA Finals, and was playing for a team that was upfront about the fact that they were prepared to let him go, because re-signing him, or even including him in a sign and trade scenario, would push them too far into luxury tax territory.

Turkoglu had been a critical piece of the team that got Orlando to the Finals, and was one of the most praised individual players of the entire series. That being said, when it came down to dollars and cents, Orlando simply did not feel that he was a twenty million dollar a year player, which is what they would have had to have paid in combined salary and luxury tax to keep him. One week later, Hedo signed a five-year, fifty-three million dollar contract with the Toronto Raptors ( I'm leaving out all of the Portland stuff, and the Marion sign and trade silliness, as it has no effect on the time line).

It made perfect financial sense for them to allow him to leave, and let his minutes be taken by younger, cheaper players such as Ryan Anderson and (later) Brandon Bass. At the same time, Orlando made a move showing that they intended to win now by bringing in a thirty-two-year-old Vince Carter.

Here's where it gets a little screwy. If you combine the guaranteed money contracts that Orlando has now taken on between Bass ( four years, eighteen million dollars) and Gortat (five years, thirty-four million dollars), you come up with a figure nearly identical to the money that Toronto paid for Hedo, and the head scratching realization that the Magic have pushed themselves deep into luxury tax territory in order to create a lineup that is doubtlessly less effective than the one they could've had if they had simply kept Turkoglu to begin with.

Nelson-Carter-Howard-Lewis-Turkoglu is the kind of starting five that can win a team an NBA title.

Nelson-Carter-Howard-Lewis-???, with Bass, Anderson, and Gortat all fighting for minutes at the same spot, while costing the Magic well over twenty million dollars a year between them, is a recipe for confusion.

Otis Smith might eventually become known as the GM that led the Orlando Magic to an NBA championship, but at the moment he strikes me more like a dog with two bones, who refuses to leave either behind, and ends up being caught by the dogcatcher.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks still have their MLE to spend on a guy like Von Wafer, and the trade chips to go out and find themselves another center. It would've been simpler for them if the Magic had simply declined, but they're still in a far better situation than they were when last season ended.

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You've got it wrong!!!!

You’ve got it all wrong my friend…. Truth is Hedo isn’t as good as you and the rest of the national eye think he is. He’s not so much a key componet of the MAgic’s system but a product of SVG system. Hedo is wildly inconsistent, always has been, infact his best year was actually two years ago. He took a step back this year. What Otis has really done( and you’ll come to realize this as the season plays out) is he’s gotten more for less. MArk my words: This is going to be a better team than last years. No doubt about it.. Otis knows what he’s doing (we did go to the finals, voted 3 All-star players to AS game, players he had hand in aquiring, and has made nothing but smart trades since he’s been here)….. To think he’s just some clueless Gm is kind of ludacris and unfair. MAybe your just pissed off about not getting Gortat i don’t know but alot of you saw Gortat coming to Dallas as a forgone conclusion, that’s your own damm fault…

by orltragic07 on Jul 14, 2009 9:15 AM CDT reply actions

the magic are not making the conference finals again

doesn’t really have anything to do with the moves they made either. they wildly overperformed last year.

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on Jul 14, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

Couldn't disagree more...

They’re better than Cleveland, hands down IMO…

Boston, we could argue, but I think the moves they’ve made are bigger than bringing in Rasheed…

by N41D on Jul 14, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions

give me LeBron in that one 9 out of 10 times

apparently, the 10th time was last year…

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 14, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Not true

Dwight Howard flashed a very good hook shot last year. If he get’s the shot down, which I think he will, he becomes a low post scorer, not just a low post dunker, they’ll be extremely tough to beat.

by tyd3311 on Jul 14, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions

The Magic will be better at PG, SG, and C, while getting quite a bit worse at F.

by tyd3311 on Jul 14, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

I've said some similar things about Hedo...

And we can all wait and see, but the logic in this move still puzzles me. I am disappointed about not getting Gortat, but I’m hardly wishing a heart attack on Otis Smith. He’s a business man, he made a business decision, and it was his right to do so. I just have trouble seeing the logic in it from his perspective.

Honestly, I’d be saying the same thing if Dallas had given that kind of money to Bass, who backs up the Mavs best player. Losing him stings, but not enough that I’d be interested in overpaying for the 19 minutes a night he gives us.

I think if you put two of my best seasons together it wouldn't come up with the numbers he's going to have at the end of the season. -Troy Aikman on Tony Romo

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 14, 2009 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Like I said yesterday, it just feels like the height of stupidity on Orlando's part...

Now they’re deep into the luxury tax for a play that did/does not want to be there, has expressed not being wild about SVG to Polish newspapers, and will back-up their best player and play at most 20 minutes a night… You can’t play Dwight and Gortat together for more than a handful of minutes a night, and Brandon Bass wouldn’t have signed there without some assurance he would see a spike in the 20 or so minutes a night he played here in Dallas…

Even if they matched with the intention of trading him later on, what do they really think they’re going to get in return? They don’t have any other real asset contracts to trade along with him to get a guy like Bosh, unless they’re planning on shipping Jameer along with him… Teams aren’t taking back Vince or Rashard’s contracts… So best case, assuming they aren’t trading Jameer, they’re looking at a guy on a mid-level type deal… Just don’t see how it’s worth it…

They essentially made that trade exception they got last week irrelevant. They can’t trade it with another player to get a player of higher value, and let’s be serious, the Magic aren’t bumping payroll north of $90M by trading it and taking on another contract…

But they’re the best team on paper in the East, so I guess if they win a championship it’s worth it… But I just think with they resources available to them, they could have traded that exception for a backup center or signed Wilcox, Gooden, or someone else on the market for a fraction of the price to play the same role almost just as effectively…

by N41D on Jul 14, 2009 9:25 AM CDT reply actions

Orlando is not close to being better than a healthy Celtic team. Cleveland eh maybe, in the playoffs, Orlando may have a better roster, but there’s the King James factor+now Shaq.

Wonder what Orlando was thinking.. Howard’s just going to get better and play more minutes. You really don’t need that good of a backup for him.

by Why on Jul 14, 2009 11:31 AM CDT reply actions

Don't see how...

Boston is definitively better than Orlando…

Cleveland, to me, just doesn’t belong… They still can’t defend Dwight, and if you assume dwight and bron cancel out, the Magic have flat out a better supporting cast…

I like them getting Vince… Now they have a guy that can create his own offense without a pick and roll and attack the rim… Much less jumpshot oriented now…

by N41D on Jul 14, 2009 1:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Cost/Benefit Motivation

Time will show that this move by itself did not devastate either team. I think the most interesting aspect of this whole ordeal is how the management approached their cost/benefit analysis. Mark Cuban saw a young center with potential & offered him the MLE. Your cost is only about half as much as what you are paying Dampier & your benefit is a potential solid starter. It’s obvious that this was a low risk move for Dallas. For Otis Smith however, the cost was going into the luxury tax for the benefit of having another solid back-up for Dwight Howard. When your cost grossly outweighs the benefit like that, you have to look at what the motivation is behind the illogical move. Since he also seemed to of targeted one of Dallas’ players in Bass in a reactionary move, it looks like Otis was just being an asshole. That will definitely come back to bite him.

by newkidd07 on Jul 14, 2009 11:48 AM CDT reply actions

That's basically where I was going with this...

Bass fits with Orlando for the money, Gortat fits with Dallas for the money. Putting both on either team lessens the value of both, since they play the same position, and both teams have First Team All-NBA talent taking 40 minutes a night at either the 4 or the 5 spot.

Like I said, this just feels like a “dog with two bones” situation with Otis Smith. And that never ends well for the dog.

I think if you put two of my best seasons together it wouldn't come up with the numbers he's going to have at the end of the season. -Troy Aikman on Tony Romo

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 14, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions

You'll be sorrrr-rrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeee!!!

Meanwhile, the Mavericks still have their MLE to spend on a guy like Von Wafer

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 14, 2009 12:24 PM CDT reply actions

Well, I didn't mean the whole thing...

I was just saying that it was there, and he was the first name that came to mind. Guy has one-year wonder written all over him, but I’d spend some of Cuban’s money on him if the price was right.

I think if you put two of my best seasons together it wouldn't come up with the numbers he's going to have at the end of the season. -Troy Aikman on Tony Romo

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 14, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Cuban says he is talking

to Lamar Odoms Agent ??Desperation MOVE !! And by the way with Gortat ..ottis is keeping him to trade him instead of letting him walk like we did Bass Orlandos going to get something back in return…Just not with Dallas some kind of wierd rules had we not made the offer than we could have done a sign and trade… the real Idiot is Donnie Nelson…He was out smarted!!

All warfare is based on deception.

by aaronp on Jul 14, 2009 1:59 PM CDT reply actions

Odom is a desperation move?

Von Wafer at the MLE would be a desperation move…Odom’s an extreme quality player at the MLE that can play the 3 or 4 and while he does all of the things Marion does well, he thus duplicates the rebounding, post scoring and long, athletic defense that we’ve been missing here for a while now. I think it’d be tough to pull off for Carlisle, and I don’t see Odom signing here, but if we had a team of Kidd, Terry, Howard, Marion, Odom, Dirk, Damp, Hollins, Barea, Beaubois plus a Gerald Green/Buckner/Devean George type, it’d be pretty fun to watch. I would expect a lot of Kidd, Howard, Marion, Dirk, Odom situations, with the ability to go even smaller and faster or bigger.

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 14, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Von Wafer at the full MLE would be a disaster

similar to what Villanueva will be for Detroit

by tyd3311 on Jul 14, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Not quite on that level...

Detroit actually expects Villanueva to be a heavy-rotation player. Wafer would be the third guy off the bench, at best. I’m not really attached to the guy, or even particularly interested in him, I just think he has a funny name.

I think if you put two of my best seasons together it wouldn't come up with the numbers he's going to have at the end of the season. -Troy Aikman on Tony Romo

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 14, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

and great hair

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 14, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions

You cant win it all

playing small ball…Odom is a 4 we have Dirk whos a 4 and Marion who can also play the 4….we sign odom we are going to be so backlogged at the foward spots its not even funny….why would he want to come here and play center or to sit on the bench??? It would be a dumb move and I dont think they will do it because Odom wouldnt do it. They still have some pretty good pieces they could move. Howard, Damp and even Terry…You know cubans gonna make a deal and you know he is going to use the MLE its just a matter of who and when.

All warfare is based on deception.

by aaronp on Jul 14, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Moving Howard accomplishes nothing if you don't get a star back

and we wouldn’t be getting a star back. Damp’s not going anywhere from my point of view. His trade value at the end of this year is too big.

And if you read what I said, I don’t think Odom would come here. But you are assuming Howard won’t play SG, right? If we had a team of Kidd, Howard, Marion, Odom and Dirk on the court at the same time, do you realize that any mismatches from going “smaller” would be overcome by the sheer athleticism of Howard, Marion and Odom? We wouldn’t miss a beat rebounding, we might actually be better off defending, and Odom and Marion would have a FIELD DAY taking passes in the post from Kidd while Dirk commands double teams mid-range. Then you’re bringing Terry and Barea off the bench? Hollins running with that group? I don’t see the downside outside of a slight dropoff in 3 point shooting, which I’d gladly pass on if we had a consistent post game.

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 14, 2009 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with you for the most part

It would definitely be entertaining to watch. But the real key in that concept would be aggresive defense. But heres some scenarios….
- remember when we had Jamison and Walker??How did that work out for us?
- Hypothetically we get past …lets say Portland in the first round of the play offs and then in the second round we see a healthy SA and Ginobli and most importantly Duncan/ McDyce combo. Who guards who? oh and just bank on howard tweeking his ankle 2 weeks before the play offs start and he is trying to play hurt or rehabing

It would be intersting to see how that plays out. and if it would be a Jamison / Walker type year.

All warfare is based on deception.

by aaronp on Jul 14, 2009 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions

dude.

please, never Antoine Walker in here again. THAT was an utter failure. Jamison wasn’t SO bad…in fact he was pretty good, 6th man of the year, right?

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 15, 2009 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Jamison was good for 2 reasons

he was good soldier and took the roll coming off the bench and got the 6th man award but wanted out…..and then we turned him into Devin Harris which we turned into Kidd and Wright

All warfare is based on deception.

by aaronp on Jul 15, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions

You're Underestimating Otis I Think

The guy is MUCH smarter than you give him credit. Regarding Turk…i’d have a hard time believing any manger would choose Turk over Gortat, a young center; and Bass, a PF-C who is also young. Again, I think there’s been too much “hype” propelling Turk at this point. Toronto isnt going to get their money’s worth long-run. I dunno, just a few thoughts…

by Kennedy K on Jul 14, 2009 5:28 PM CDT reply actions

Otis will probably get his money's worth out of Gortat through a future trade, if Gortat Improves...

by Kennedy K on Jul 14, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Not without packaging another large contract, he won't...

by N41D on Jul 14, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Bass is not a PF-C

he’s nothing close to a C. He’s actually closer to a SF than a C. So let’s remove that dash and C from your post there.

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 14, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions

I posted

the same thing over on the Magic’s blog. I wasn’t trying to troll or anything, but I don’t know if they realized he is maybe 6’7" at the most. It makes me laugh to hear them say he can play the 4 or the 5 when really he’s a 3, maybe an undersized 4…

"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)

"you're fuckin out" (Kenny Powers)

Texas Rangers Baseball: Built to start piece of shit retreads like Dustin Nippert in intradivisional play in July!!!

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jul 16, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions

He's not a 3. You have to be able to dribble to be a 3

He is an extremely undersized 4. That’s it.

by tyd3311 on Jul 17, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions

To be perfectly honest, I don't think that Turk is a fifty million dollar player either...

But I also don’t think that Bass is an eighteen million dollar player, and I’m absolutely sure that Rashard Lewis isn’t a $100M+ player. But my personal opinion is that, if you’re going to spend that kind of money anyway, then Turk might have been a better way to go.

Bass is younger, but trust me, after watching him for two years I can tell you that he has just as many flaws in his game as Turk, and his size and lack of ball handling skills make him far less versatile. One day, Gortat and Howard might become the prototype for NBA “twin towers”, but as we saw in the Finals, both are still too similar offensively to work as an effective unit, and would benefit from being surrounded by more skilled players.

Again, all of this is my personal opinion.

I think if you put two of my best seasons together it wouldn't come up with the numbers he's going to have at the end of the season. -Troy Aikman on Tony Romo

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 15, 2009 2:07 AM CDT up reply actions

The only guy

I think Orlando should be scared about is Vince freakin’ Carter. But then again, the Magic have too much talent to miss the playoffs in the East, even if their chemistry gets completely blown to shit by Carter. They could pull it all together come playoffs time. That 03-04 Mavs team never really blended, but still managed, I think, 52 wins, before their lack of D got absolutely fried in the playoffs.

Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

by jonthefon on Jul 14, 2009 10:36 PM CDT reply actions

Vince isn't so bad

we’ll see what he does when he has to defer to a much larger man than himself…I don’t think he’s a cancer. I just think he needs to be “the man” more than others. But there are a lot of players like that in the league – hell, Paul Pierce was one of those guys until KG and Ray came along, and Ray was ANOTHER one of those guys. It COULD work, I just hope it doesn’t, for Otis, of course.

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 15, 2009 12:33 AM CDT up reply actions

By the Kings

who never went to the playoffs after that.

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.-1984 George Orwell.

by tomkanti on Jul 15, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

That 03-04 Kings

was pretty damn good, even though C-Webb was effectively done and Vlade was aging. They still had Bibby, an ice-cold Mavs killer. Doug Christie was getting up there in age too, but he was still an agitator and a solid do-all man. Peja was coming off a career year. Brad Miller was a great pickup for them and arguably a better player than Vlade (had a mid-range game and was just as good a big-man passer) was at that stage of his career, but I dunno, he just didn’t fill in Vlade’s role afterwards. They got unlucky against Minnesota who ended up a one-season wonder.

The season after, Vlade left for LA, C-Webb just wasn’t himself and didn’t fit into that system (I keep remembering how during the playoffs, he blew by Dirk after bad pick-and-roll D with Nash, only to blow a reverse dunk because he could barely jump), Christie started to show his age, Bobby Jackson just wasn’t as effective off the bench, and the Kings got bounced in the first round. Then Webber got dealt to Philly, they traded away Peja mid-season for Artest and managed one mediocre playoffs run where they got easily disposed by San Antonio.

Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

by jonthefon on Jul 15, 2009 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions