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The Damp Bombshell

Earlier this week, Dallasbasketball.com's David Lord took a look at Erick Dampier's non-guaranteed contract for 2010 and realized that it was a huge asset for acquiring one of the players amongst the amazing free agent class of next year. I can't believe that the story hasn't received significant national attention as it has spectacular implications.

There are a lot of questions about this situation, so I'll provide you with two scenarios below to illustrate how it could work. But first to answer two questions I've seen:

  • Can't another team do this? No, no other team has a non-guaranteed contract remotely close to the size of Dampier's.
  • Couldn't the Mavs trade Dampier this year for something so another team could use this chip  next year? The Mavs could, but the one element of this that no one discusses is the absolutely massive impact this will have on the team's payroll. Teams willing to use this chip have to theoretically be willing to take on upwards of $30 million a year in extra payroll if you include the luxury tax. Very very few teams would be willing to swallow that much of a commitment for one player.

Let's use Dwyane Wade as an example as to how this could go:

  • The Knicks with a better roster than Miami and lots of cap space go to Wade and offer him the max they can.
  • Wade goes to Riley and says, "Look, I have a better chance of winning in New York. I'm not taking the extra year from you, I'm going to New York."
  • Riley, having already talked to Donnie Nelson, replies, "How about this: We'll sign you for more than you can make in New York AND you can go play in Dallas with Jason Kidd and their 50 win team."
  • Wade goes, "Shucks, I'm adding Cuban to my fave five right now!"
  • Riley goes to Cuban and says, "I want max cash and some draft picks, and you can have Wade."
  • Cuban looks at his payroll, slaps his forehead and swallows hard, and then sends Dampier and a second filler contract and the other stuff to Miami.

Some comments on this scenario:

  • New York is powerless here. They can't offer more money than Dallas, and their team simply isn't as good as the Mavericks.
  • Miami can nix this whole scenario, but why would they? They would be facing what Dallas did when Steve Nash left--nothing in return for losing a star player.

The results:

  • Wade joins Dallas.
  • Dallas' payroll goes into the stratosphere.
  • Dampier and a scrub joins Miami and both are cut.
  • Miami gets cash and draft picks and the same cap room they would have had if Wade left for nothing.
  • New York gets nothing.

Now, how realistic is this scenario? What exactly needs to happen for it to become a reality? Isn't this just a pipe dream? Answers after the jump.

Star-divide

What makes this a realistic scenario for the Mavs is the unique nature of two things: The Mavs can offer max money, and they can offer a roster that would contend for a title. However, there are nuances here that make things tricky. Let's look at them now.

For the Dampier chip to work, it must start with a player willing to take less money elsewhere to play for a contender (which is always a dicey proposition). That, to me, is the biggest drawback of this scenario. Of course, that's also what makes it good for Dallas, so there you go.

Here's what I mean, using Wade again:

  1. Let's assume Wade wants the $$$ first and foremost. His second criteria is playing for a contender. In the NBA, this is always a pretty safe assumption unless you're talking about 30+ guys at the end of their careers. Let's also make the assumption that Wade's agent knows about the Dampier contract S&T possibilities. Actually, don't assume this: They WILL know about it.
  2. New York or one of the other teams with massive cap room comes to Wade and offers him the max. Miami says, "We'll give you that PLUS the extra year, which is MORE money!" Wade doesn't want to play for a crap team like New York but he DOES want the $$$$. He also doesn't want to play for a crap team like Miami, but Miami is at least offering more $$$$. Hrm, his agent is thinking he can call in the Dampier chip. That gives Wade EVERYTHING he wants. Let's pause and be clear here: There is only ONE scenario that gives Wade everything he wants: Dallas.
  3. However, for the Dampier contract to work, Wade has to illustrate to Miami that he is clearly willing to leave Miami for New York's lower $$$ offer. Because if Miami thinks Wade is bluffing and really just wants the money then they'll just make the max offer in a "take it or leave it" fashion. The Dampier chip actually hurts their negotiating position at keeping Wade, because now they aren't the only team that can pay Wade max $$$. However, THEY are the ones in control of making that happen.
  4. And here's where the trouble lies: If Miami thinks that Wade is all about the Benjamins, then they hold all the cards. They do NOT have to play ball with Dallas if they think Wade won't leave to take less money. So the player must make it clear that he'd leave for less money.

The Mavs are in excellent position if the teams looking to re-sign their big name free agents in 2010 honestly feel that they are going to lose them to another team. Actually, in that scenario, the Mavs aren't just in an excellent position, they are in a better position than EVERY team with massive cap space. Excluding their existing teams, Dallas is the only club that can offer free agents max money and a contender as a destination.

In the future, a good way to examine how this plays out is to look at what the players are saying. If a player starts saying that he wants to play for a contender and that he is withholding his 2010 decision until he sees what his current team does in terms of building a contender, then you have a good indication that the Dampier chip can be put in play. 

Stay tuned.

2 recs  |  Comment 33 comments |

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assuming we will be a contender in 2010

that is an assumption that you seem pretty sure of

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on Jul 8, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing is certain

due to injuries, etc. But the Mavs seem to have upgraded their roster with Marion and Gortat, so being a contender as much as anybody else in the free agent pool with cap money isn’t that much of a stretch.

by Jakedfw on Jul 8, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice summary Jake. But it's hardly news, ShamSports had that written in his contract info forever.

And I have written about it here and elsewhere on SBN.

If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar

by Norsktroll on Jul 8, 2009 4:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

I checked your post history on SBN and I checked Shamsports and couldn’t find anything about Dampier and using him as a S&T for 2010. I WOULD like to give credit where credit is due, so if you could point me to the links, I’d be happy to add them.

by Jakedfw on Jul 8, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I meant that his contract is expiring

Shamsports “additional contract info”:

Erick Dampier: Signed and traded to Dallas with a 7 year, $73 million contract in August 2004. Last season is fully unguaranteed, which becomes full guaranteed if 1) Dampier is selected to play in any three NBA All-Star Games out of the 2004-2005 through the 2009-2010 seasons, or 2) Dampier plays at least 2,100 minutes in the 70 regular season games in the 2009-2010 season in which he plays the most minutes (and if he plays in less than 70 regular season games in the 2009-2010 season, then he must play at least 2,100 minutes for the entire regular season). So that’s interesting.

So yeah, by extension of that he is very valuable either at the deadline or in a sign and trade. In a package with Howard, Cuban and Donnie could fulfill the contract requirements of pretty much any major player.

If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar

by Norsktroll on Jul 8, 2009 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/mavericks.jsp Additional contract notes and details (click for pop-up).

If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar

by Norsktroll on Jul 8, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry Norsktroll...

Saying “So that’s interesting” and highlighting Dampier’s salary in grey to specify it is non-guaranteed is a far cry from describing how that could play out via a S&T in 2010. I give complete props to David Lord for looking at those data points and then putting the pieces together to explain to fans that this means that the Mavs could be a significant player in 2010 when the common conception is that the team was so far over the cap that they’d have to gut their roster to get a top free agent.

Again, I’m glad you noticed those pieces, but the difference is that you did nothing with them to explain their relevance to a normal fan. That’s important, it really is. And that’s what David did over at dallasbasketball.com.

by Jakedfw on Jul 9, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

See what I mean, Wes?

This guy is just annoying.

by brettgardner on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

dude

shut up

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on Jul 8, 2009 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're the first to criticize

And the first to practice hypocrisy.

by brettgardner on Jul 9, 2009 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah what guy are you talking about?

whats the point of being blatantly rude to someone like that?

if you are talking about Norsk, he constantly gives us relevant links and updates that we never would find otherwise, and if you are talking about jake, then, i dont know, im not even going to respond to that.

by JayKim41 on Jul 9, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The big news is not that Damp’s contract is expiring, but rather the possibilities of what that means to the Mavs chances in the 2010 free agent bonanza. Everyone is talking that the teams need to clear cap space to sign one of those free agents. The Mavs don’t need to do that! They can just S&T with the DUST and make FAs an even better offer than all those teams that frantically try to clear cap room. That’s why they can sign JKidd, Marion, Gortat etc and still be a big player in the FA market in 2010. That’s why the Mavs should only consider trading Damp before next summer if one of the prized FAs or a comparable player is the reward. Trade Damp at the deadline and you are right, it’s just another expiring, wait until the summer: DUST!

by coolste on Jul 9, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone have an estimate on how much a max contract would be next offseason?

S-St. Louis, R-Rams, D-Dallas, M-Mavericks, A-Arizona, D-Diamondbacks.

by srdmad on Jul 8, 2009 4:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Doubt It....

I think Miami would want more than max cash and some draft picks. They would probably want at least a young talent in return as well. As we know Dallas does not have that……..

by Monkey Brain on Jul 8, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You are missing the point

Miami could want whatever they want, but they aren’t in control. It goes like this:

1) Wade leaves for nothing.
2) Wade stays for max cash.
3) Wade leaves for whatever Miami can get from Dallas.

The point being that if Wade is leaving, option 3 is better than option 1.

by Jakedfw on Jul 8, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

great stuff Jake

so this is also true with:

- LeBron and the Cavs (although a Knicks destination makes sense for him if he leaves the Cavs)

- Bosh and the Raptors (although PF/C won’t be a HUGE need for us in the future if we keep Dirk and Gortat works out)

- Amare and the Suns

- Joe Johnson and the Hawks

- Manu and the Spurs

- Yao Ming and the Rockets

- Michael Redd and the Bucks

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 8, 2009 7:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Spurs and Rockets

They’d much rather let’em go than trading with us and making us better. Also, Manu and Yao seem pretty shaky health-wise.

Alma para conquistarte, corazón para quererte, y vida para vivirla junto a ti.

by chrisR on Jul 8, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As much as it pains me..

I think Wade would be amazing on the Mavs. But Joe Johnson would be awesome, too.

I don’t think Lebron is going to leave Cleveland, and if he does, I would expect him to go to NY.

by Jakedfw on Jul 8, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LeBron is a spotlight whore

He’s going to NY

Alma para conquistarte, corazón para quererte, y vida para vivirla junto a ti.

by chrisR on Jul 9, 2009 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another problem

In your example, Wade could also get the max dollars from the Knicks if they do the sign-and-trade with the Heat. Assuming they have sufficient room under the cap, which they likely will, they could get the Heat to sign him to a max deal, and then trade, for example, a couple number ones, to the Heat for Wade.

The Knicks are out a couple picks, but they have Wade. The Heat get two picks and no players, which is better than getting (and cutting) Dampier from the Mavs.

by Darrell McKown on Jul 8, 2009 10:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

new york cannot top our offer

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on Jul 8, 2009 11:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They can match it

So then it becomes primarily a question of where he wants to play and whether Miami would facilitate a deal to Dallas.

by Darrell McKown on Jul 8, 2009 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Wade is leaving

Miami will facilitate a deal if Wade is leaving. This is where it gets interesting in the NY S&T scenario.

If Miami wants cap space, Dallas is the only choice. If Miami wants talent, NY is the only choice.

HOWEVER, a S&T can’t happen without the player’s consent, and if NY does a S&T with Wade it will gut their roster. Do you think Wade would want to leave a crappy Miami team for a crappy NY team? So now we’re talking about a game of chicken:

Wade wants Dallas, but Miami needs to agree to the deal to make it happen.
Miami wants NY, but Wade has to agree to the deal to make it happen.

In this scenario, Miami holds some the cards for the most part. If they don’t give in to Wade wanting to go to Dallas, Wade is going to NY with better players and less money or more money and a really lousy team.

This gets complicated by the fact that ANOTHER team my go after Wade that has cap room. This improves Dallas’ position, as Wade can now disregard NY entirely.

Of course, it is possible that Miami really wants the cap room so they can turn around and sign Bosh or someone else or just save money. This helps Dallas, too.

So, as much as you twist and turn the facts, Dallas is always right there in the running. It might not be simple, but at every turn the Mavs have a shot.

by Jakedfw on Jul 9, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sign and trade with NY

A sign and trade with NY wouldn’t have to gut their roster. They will be far enough under the cap so that the Heat could trade Wade to the Knicks without the Knicks having to shed any salaries. The reason Wade would get more money in a sign and trade scenario is that under the rules Wade’s existing team can simply sign him to a bigger contract. So the Heat could sign Wade and trade him to the Knicks for a couple first round picks (and use their cap room to take his salary in the deal), or trade him to the Mavs for Dampier (and then cut Dampier).

In the end, it would simply come down to where Wade wanted to play. He could get the same money from either Dallas or NY in a sign and trade given the Knicks ability to simply trade for him with their summer 2010 cap room.

by Darrell McKown on Jul 9, 2009 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that goes without saying.

The Mavs were, are and will be contenders as long as Dirk is here. Adding Wade to the mix with Kidd, Marion, Howard, Terry, Gortat and other role players makes Dallas an instant favorite over anyone.

by Texan 1st on Jul 9, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mean if the Knicks end up with LeBron via free agency

they may be a better destination for sure as far as winning a title goes. But they probably won’t have the chips to acquire Wade via sign-and-trade after signing LeBron. So the Knicks would have to see LeBron resign with the Cavs, then go get Bosh or Amare and hope they have the contracts to trade for Wade.

Dirk + Marion + Gortat + Kidd, as mentioned below, and perhaps Terry and/or Howard would be a MUCH more ideal partnership than what the Knicks have now…

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jul 9, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I ain't no salary cap wizard...

But that scenario sounds pretty unfeasible.

I think if you put two of my best seasons together it wouldn't come up with the numbers he's going to have at the end of the season. -Troy Aikman on Tony Romo

by Big D Bam Bam on Jul 9, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That could certainly happen...

If I’m Miami, then I’m thinking that a couple of first rounders from what will most likely be a worse team than Dallas is a better offer. However, Wade has to agree to it, and if he would prefer to go to Dallas this becomes an interesting scenario, as I outline below.

Ultimately, Wade holds the most significant chip: He can choose where he plays no matter what happens (assuming teams are offering him $$$, which at least a couple will, I think).

by Jakedfw on Jul 9, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But we have Q Ross

why do we need Wade? Ha ha

All warfare is based on deception.

by aaronp on Jul 9, 2009 9:51 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Add this to the deal...

Throw in Josh Howard…the Heat should bite on this and we get Wade. End of story.
Wait…there’s the part of the story where we win a championship…Wade’s 2nd title. We all know how he got his first….Thanks Avery. Dipshit coach

by juanloco on Jul 10, 2009 2:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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