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Dallas Believes in the Power of Patience With Beaubois

I've created the term "Boot-Gate" to help chronicle the events surrounding the recovery process for Roddy Beaubois.  Clearly, the Mavericks are eagerly awaiting the return of their second-year guard, it should be noted that fans are just as eager, if not more, to see Beaubois back into the mix.

The young guard showed flashes of greatness over the course of his rookie season and everyone under the sun has labeled him "The Future."  You can see billboards scattered across the Metroplex with Roddy in action and print to the side stating he will be a superstar.  It should be noted, Beaubois is definitely under the radar in terms of one of the best-dressed players in the NBA, but with all things being equal, everyone would much rather see him wearing a Mavericks uniform. 

Mum is the word when it comes to indicating the return of Beaubois, but Dirk Nowitzki took a stab at figuring Roddy's timetable, citing the Mavericks could be without their x-factor until December.  When you try to get a specific assessment from the organization, you just hear that they are taking their time and not rushing Roddy back.  They're taking their time, but there hasn't been any verbal confirmation on when he is expected back.  Mavericks Owner Mark Cuban was on The Ben & Skin show on Friday and commented that Roddy was going to visit the doctor over the weekend.  Hopefully, it's just a check-up and not a setback and things are rolling towards Roddy hitting the hardwood soon.

Star-divide

There was a nice piece here on MMB in late October that discussed the perils of essentially counting the chickens before they hatch with Roddy. The second-year guard has the makings to be a special player, but expectations do need to be tempered with Beaubois.  He's coming off a major injury and will have to take some time getting back into game-shape and etc.  On top of that, there will be natural growing pains for Beaubois.  After dealing with inconsistent minutes in his rookie year, it appears he will get the lion's share of minutes at the shooting guard position.  It takes time to get used to that type of change.

Expectations need to be tempered, but it's easy to understand why his return is well anticipated.  "You saw last year what he (Roddy) brings. He’s unpredictable," Nowitzki said of Beaubois. "He’s liable to do anything out there, which is good. I think sometimes we’re a little bit too predictable. When he comes in, he might pull up for a 3 from 25 feet, the next time he drives and is a great finisher in there."  The Mavericks have been known to be predictable with their schemes on offense.  The Mavericks game is predicated off of flow and motion but you still know they ultimately want the ball in Nowitzki's hands, Roddy is an additional piece that brings the wild-card element to where you can't specifically key in on Nowitzki.

Roddy's basketball role is about as cut and dry as you can have it with Rick Carlisle as the coach.  He always keeps his strategy in regards to the rotation under wraps but he, and players on the team, have indicated that Roddy will emerge as the starting shooting guard to play alongside Jason Kidd when he returns from his injury.  We have seen what the Mavericks look like without Beaubois and there is anticipation of what the Mavericks could be with the infusion of active and healthy Beaubois into the mix.  The best analogy that breaks it all down is that the Mavericks are a 2005-2006 Volkswagen Jetta.  It's a nice looking car, better than most and it runs really well, it even has a nice leather interior...simply put, it's good but not great.  However, Beaubois essentially is nitrous oxide (N2O) added to the vehicle.  The car still is the same car, but it has something that gives it an extra kick.  By adding that, it can radically change the outlook for the vehicle as long as the car doesn't fall apart.

How does that work with tempered expectations?  It's simple, you don't prognosticate the amount of points he'll average but you recognize his abilities to bring a totally new dimension to the squad.  You just go with that route and health permitting, the results will work themselves out.

The league has changed over the years, it's no longer driven by the big men, it's a guard-driven league.  Speed can kill and guys who are able to attack into the lane cause headaches for opposing coaches and players.  Dirk truly believes that the Mavericks have that kind of player in Beaubois.  "The sky’s the limit if he keeps improving," Nowitzki said. "He’s got the shot. He can go both ways. He’s got the floater. He can shoot off the dribble. He’s a long, crafty defender. There’s really nothing he can’t do. He’s going to be a real nice player."

There will be lingering doubts on whether or not Roddy Beaubois is going to be labeled "injury-prone" but we can't even began to discuss that until he actually comes back.  For now, "Boot-Gate" will continue and the Mavericks will be waiting to add that extra boost to their lineup.

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Are there really Billbords with him? Pics or it didn’t happen.

also,

The league’s rules have changed over the years, it’s no longer driven by the big men, it’s a guard-driven league. Handcheck and all.

"Mais put… Il est fou ce gars!"

by DOH on Nov 14, 2010 1:58 PM CST reply actions  

nice article

I’m curious, though:

(Rick Carlisle), and players on the team, have indicated that Roddy will emerge as the starting shooting guard to play alongside Jason Kidd when he returns from his injury.

Is there a quote or series of quotes specifically that make you believe this? And how immediate is this emergence supposed to be?

Not necessarily saying it would be a surprising move, but I think I’ve articulated my stance on the issue already as the type of decision that isn’t exactly a slam dunk.

For one thing, Terry is playing great ball right now; if he holds up I doubt Beaubois is going to beat those numbers. What’s more, Terry is a veteran who takes quality shots and doesn’t turn the ball over, which fits so well with an offense that is at times too anemic to overcome wasted possessions. Beaubois can be a bit out of control at times, and this was an aspect of his game that was hoped would be honed in the summer league, and wasn’t, really.

To me, it just makes more sense to bring Roddy along slowly, unless he changes the timetable.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 14, 2010 2:02 PM CST reply actions  

Thanks!

There hasn’t been any indication how quickly Roddy will emerge into the starting lineup once he comes back, but it’s still an assumption that he will eventually get into the starting lineup. Jason Kidd was the only player I’ve talked to that suggested otherwise, that he might come off the bench, but that was back at Media Day.

I do agree with you that Terry is making things “difficult” in regards to thinking of reducing his workload with a permanent move to the bench. Carlisle has mentioned that Terry coming off the bench is a very great situation for the team. I get the feeling it’s a wait-and-see approach due to health issues with Butler and Roddy. From what I gather, everyone believes they’ve seen enough to believe Roddy can be inserted, they just want to let him come back, get his feet wet and get comfortable and then the move would eventually be made.

Timetable wise, it’s really up to when Roddy gets back and avoiding setbacks.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Nov 14, 2010 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Terry can't beat just about every player in the league off the dribble,

but his and Roddy’s 3 point shooting abilities are similar. But if Terry was ever going to be a permanent starter, don’t you think they would have already done that?

I think it’s obvious that a lot of things that Roddy has shown are things that no other Mavs player can do. For example; Jet has only a handful of 30 point games in all his years with the Mavs despite averaging more than 30 minutes a game every year. On the other hand, Roddy had four games last year with more than 25 minutes. He scored 40 in 29:52, 16 in 26:22, 24 in 34:37, and 17 in 28:33.

I don’t know if Roddy will make an immediate impact when he returns, but i do believe that he should be given every chance. I saw what the Mavs have done in recent playoffs and their has definitely been something missing. A big part of that is something that I believe that Beaubois can bring to the table.

 I think it’s been too long since you’ve seen Buckets play.

by young guns on Nov 14, 2010 3:16 PM CST up reply actions  

So what's Beaubois' ceiling and floor?

Comparing him to similar players, e.g. shrimpy (6’0") guys with speed to burn and 3-pt range, etc.

I was thinking his floor is Eddie House and his ceiling is Iverson with a quicker version of Daniel Gibson right in the middle. Too optimistic about the Iverson thing? Think he’ll end up between Gibson and Iverson.

"Attempted murder? Now honestly, what is that? Do they give a Nobel Prize for attempted chemistry? " - Sideshow Bob

by stupidsexyflanders on Nov 14, 2010 5:12 PM CST up reply actions  

barbosa is a safe projection, I think

Pretty similar skillset, speedster with range, undersized shooting guard. Beaubois is a little bigger than what ESPN lists his height at; he’s closer to 6’2, and very long, so I think he can play bigger than 180 pounds might suggest. Barbosa isn’t an All-Star, but he had a pretty strong run as a offensive sparkplug for Phoenix.

That projection assumes Roddy will not develop much more in the way of point guard skills, and his shot distribution will remain close to the same. I know everyone hopes he’s a superstar, but, superstars are rare for a reason, and there aren’t too many sub-6’3 superstars(the list right now is Chris Paul’s name long).

by Alan Smithee on Nov 14, 2010 7:20 PM CST up reply actions  

That's a great comp

Forgot about Barbosa.

I just worry if Jones is our future PG like everyone seems to think that we’re going to have an undersized backcourt defensively-speaking. Can’t see Jones defending Bryant or Rose etc. that successfully. Ellis and Curry score a lot but they also get posted and toasted by bigger backcourts (which is the vast majority of backcourts).

"Attempted murder? Now honestly, what is that? Do they give a Nobel Prize for attempted chemistry? " - Sideshow Bob

by stupidsexyflanders on Nov 14, 2010 7:55 PM CST up reply actions  

No one

Nobody does that great of a job guarding Bryant or Rose. I will say DoJo has stepped up to the challenges so far on the defensive side. He did well in the summer league against Wall, Preseason against Rose and hasn’t been lost when he’s gotten minutes in the regular season when it comes to defense. He gets knocked though with rookie fouls.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Nov 14, 2010 8:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess I meant D against

bigger guards specifically. Beaubois at 6’0" so Jones at 6’4" will have to take the bigger guard of the two (usu. the SG) like the 6’6" Roy, 6’8" Bryant, 6’6" Richardson, etc. He’s giving lots of inches.

"Attempted murder? Now honestly, what is that? Do they give a Nobel Prize for attempted chemistry? " - Sideshow Bob

by stupidsexyflanders on Nov 14, 2010 8:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Matrix plays d against guys like Kobe now.

And I believe Bryant is only 6-5 or 6-6.
I think for the future, they’ll look for a bigger guard that can defend. But for now they have Marion, Butler, Stevenson and Kidd that can defend most big guards. And Jones is about the same size as Kidd, so you would think he could defend similar size guys

by young guns on Nov 14, 2010 8:39 PM CST up reply actions  

A lot of people compare him to

Tony Parker or Rondo. He’s obviously a much better shooter than either. Rondo’s defense and point skills are achievable although not yet evident. His scoring can easily eclipse both.

Barbosa is an optimistic floor. It’s not the worst that could happen, but it’s a comparison that pessimists use.

by young guns on Nov 14, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Russell Westbrook

is a guy that had similar skills coming into the league. He was a shooting guard at UCLA, but almost immediately became the starting point guard with the Thunder.

They’re both good shooters and highly athletic and fast.

by young guns on Nov 14, 2010 8:33 PM CST up reply actions  

That

really is another nice comp. Never thought of him either duh.

"Attempted murder? Now honestly, what is that? Do they give a Nobel Prize for attempted chemistry? " - Sideshow Bob

by stupidsexyflanders on Nov 14, 2010 8:38 PM CST up reply actions  

re:
But if Terry was ever going to be a permanent starter, don’t you think they would have already done that?

I think Kidd and Dirk are the only truly “permanent” starters on the team. So, that’s not really the issue.

I just wonder if the constant lineup shuffling and changing of minute-allocation isn’t creating the illusory guise of success in the short term, while actually hindering overall production on the whole. Clearly Haywood has not yet taken too well to sharing minutes and playing sporadically. Marion had been fairly invisible until the last two games when he started in Butler’s absence. Though Terry does seem to have the personality and mindset to adapt well to most roles, the 3-year starter/bench splits for Terry suggest he plays better as a starter, and more importantly, as a bit of a streaky shooter, he’s someone that benefits from a lot of touches.

Dallas has several positions manned by multiple players with similar skillsets and weaknesses, and that’s a problem when the “play the hot hand” method is employed so vigorously.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 14, 2010 6:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Haywood and Marion

I don’t see any noticeable changes to Haywood about coming off the bench, Carlisle has had nothing but rave reviews for his performance and adjustment skills.

If anything, it appears Haywood is getting more and more comfortable. Like I mentioned in the Chan-Wood piece, he has 25 rebounds in his last two games after totaling just 26 in the first six games of the season.

I think we have a different outlook for Marion because I know the scoring is going to be in and out for him, but he’s been fine with his shooting percentages. They should be high because of where he usually takes his shots. What matters is his ability to run, rebound and defend.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Nov 14, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

the numbers are pretty startling

Haywood’s PER is way down(10.19 compared to 16.17 last year), his Wins Produced and Win Share rates are down(0.090 and 0.088 vs. 0.144 and 0.137), his net production is worst on the team outside of end-of-bench spares DoJo and Cardinal. He’s turning the ball over way too much, not creating enough offense for himself, and he has a big fat zero in the assist column. Oh, and he’s 3-17 at the line, which is unbelievably awful.

As for the rebounds, did you see the lineups Doug Collins was sending out against Dallas? Iguodala played power forward for a good chunk of the game. That one game has inflated his rebound rate; take it out and he’s well below his career norm.

Maybe Haywood is coming around, but on the whole it’s hard to call his performance so far anything but a pretty big disappointment, in light of the contract he was just given.

Marion’s numbers were a little down before his insertion into the starting lineup, also. And as you mention his shooting percentage, he came into the Memphis game shooting 44% from the field, which is not good given his lack of threes or ft’s.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 15, 2010 1:12 AM CST up reply actions  

I’m not worried at all about Marion’s production, starter or bench. He’ll find a way to be close to 50% and be a part of the offense and not hinder everyone else.

With Haywood, turnovers: yeah it was too many but it was too many for EVERYONE, the numbers are starting to balance out now so I’m not worried with that either. You mention the numbers versus previous years, it’s totally different ballgame comparing this year to the past 2-3 years. It’s a different of 7-10 minutes, that’s substantial. I’m not concerned with the other numbers either because it’s a totally different game he’s having to play now. Not everyone can adjust to coming off the bench easily and like I said, I think you can start to see over the past two games that he is settling in.

You can be upset based on the contract but the rules were changed after Chandler came on board. Carlisle could have promised him a starting position, he might not…either way, if someone who is better comes on board, it’s going to change everything, except the paycheck.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Nov 15, 2010 3:39 AM CST up reply actions  

better is a subjective term

and your assertions here go back to what I was speaking towards initially.

Let’s say player A is someone who contributes a lot of positive plays, but also a lot of negative plays, and player B is someone who contributes many fewer negative plays, but also fewer positive ones.

In a vacuum, it would be much easier to assert which player is better or more productive. That isn’t the case, of course, and often player A is the type that can play better in small increments of playing time, as his positive contributions are weighted more. Meanwhile, player B is the type that will be penalized by such a scenario, as he will have fewer opportunities to have his real advantage take effect.

It’s sort of the basketball equivalent in action of the error in logic than can occur with conflation. Just because player A plays well and player B plays well doesn’t necessarily mean that combining A and B will equal twice of each half.

I am not convinced that Chandler is really better over the course of a season, unless he’s really going to shoot 75% from the field and 86% at the line(which I doubt). I am not convinced that a 30/16 or 28/18 split in favor of Haywood wouldn’t produce better overall results than the current 26/20 split in favor of Chandler, as roundly unpopular right now as I’m sure that idea might be. I’m also not convinced that the opposite of all those things isn’t true, which I guess makes it all moot. There’s a lot of season left.

What am I convinced of is that this version of Haywood so far is no good, whatever the cause may be, that he’s under contract for a long time and a lot of money, and that Chandler is going to come off the books with quite a market for his services.

This is supposed to be Haywood’s prime; this year and the next couple is going to be the period where his production might actually have a chance of justifying his contract.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 15, 2010 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

re:

Blockquoted paragraph
Dallas has several positions manned by multiple players with similar skillsets and weaknesses, and that’s a problem when the "play the hot hand" method is employed so vigorously.

The Mavs don’t have another player with Beaubois’ skill sets. That’s why he is projected as a starter. Although you may be right when you say Kidd and Dirk are the only permanent starters.

by young guns on Nov 14, 2010 8:20 PM CST up reply actions  

sure they do

Terry is fast, slender, a strong shooter and less than reliable defensively. Just because he hasn’t had many alley oop dunks with Kidd doesn’t mean he’s not pretty similar to Roddy.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 15, 2010 12:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Terry can't

break a defense down off the dribble for a layup on a regular basis, or go 94 feet for a layup. If he could, he would. And he doesn’t.

And the reason he hasn’t had any alley-oops is because he can barely dunk. Beaubois, on the other hand, has a 40" vertical and is substantially faster than Jet with the ball in his hands.

If Jet tried some of the shots Roddy makes in the paint, he would either get his shot blocked or hurt himself. And if my tv was blurred to where you couldn’t identify players by there numbers or faces, it would still be easy to pick out Roddy from Jet by the differences in their athleticism.
 
And nobody on the Mavs can take it to the rack like Roddy B. He has an amazing arsenal in the paint off the dribble drive.

Roddy has his flaws. Hopefully it’s just inexperience. That’s one area where Jet has him beat. Jet has played more than twice as many years in the NBA than Roddy has even played the game of basketball.

I realize that expectations should be " tempered", but I’m not going to pretend that Roddy’s enormous potential does not exist or that Jet can match that potential or his athleticism.

by young guns on Nov 15, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

obviously Beaubois is more athletic

but the skills they possess are similar. They’re both smallish, shoot first guards that tend to play up tempo and have range with the jumpshot. The differences you speak of are more cosmetic, and thus irrelevant.

Also, Beaubois has attempted around 100 shots in the immediate basket area in his entire career. Making such a dramatic statement about how often he’ll be able to get there and convert going forward is a bit hasty. A tiny guard shooting 70% at the rim in limited minutes screams fluke. It wouldn’t surprise me if Roddy plays more away from the basket as he gets more playing time. His lack of bulk will be a major issue if he drives so consistently.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 15, 2010 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Cosmetic? Surely you jest.

I’ll use a quote from Derek Harper as he spoke of Rodrigue Beaubois after game six of the finals last year to put this in perspective, “Nobody makes shots like that. Except for Michael Jordan or Chris Paul.”

He went on to say that Carlisle’s only real mistake last year was not playing Roddy B enough.

Now I don’t take Harper’s words as the gospel, but my view surely leans in that direction.

by young guns on Nov 15, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I meant first round.

I was imagining that the Mavs had used Beaubois and that they actually made it to some finals.

But never the less, Harp spoke those words.

by young guns on Nov 15, 2010 3:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Irrelevant? Do you read in braille?



This one’s kind of blurred. Could it be Jet?


cosmetics make basketball pretty

by young guns on Nov 15, 2010 4:19 PM CST up reply actions  

yes, great plays, fun to watch

still irrelevant to the discussion.

Their have been a lot of “pretty” basketball teams the last decade for the Mavs. They were a very entertaining team.

I preface this by classifying what I’m about to say as an abstraction, but I’d trade it all in for an ugly championship.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 15, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

actually,

being able to draw four defenders and still make the shot is considered relevant in basketball.

by young guns on Nov 15, 2010 4:30 PM CST up reply actions  

yes, it makes great highlights

but the flair with which one does something is not as important as what they’re actually doing. Two points is still two points. They don’t award you more simply because you made it look good.

by Alan Smithee on Nov 15, 2010 5:27 PM CST up reply actions  

what he actually is doing is very important

In the playoffs, the Spurs took away all the easy shots. And while Roddy makes getting to the basket and somehow getting it in for two points look easy, it’s still something that none his teammates were able to accomplish.

So while it may be deemed pretty or highlight worthy, I think the term “irrelevant” has no place in this discussion.

Going back to where this all started, I like Jet and think he is an above average NBA player. But just because he’s small, can shoot, and let CP3 dribble the ball between his legs on a fast break doesn’t mean that he can also beat guys like Paul, or Parker off the dribble. There’s only one guy on the Mavs that can do that and finish at the rim consistently.

by young guns on Nov 15, 2010 6:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Speaking from experience

they’re fantastic with fine German engineering :)

by Bryan Gutierrez on Nov 14, 2010 3:31 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

By the way,

Nice article. Beaubois has become sort of an afterthought. Hopefully we’ll see him soon.

by young guns on Nov 14, 2010 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

this deserves a rec

"I also have to say that I was pretty obviously wrong about C.J. Wilson. As recently as the All Star Break, I proclaimed the decision to move him the rotation a failure. That was epicfail of a, well, epic nature" - AJM

by chrisR on Nov 15, 2010 2:02 AM CST up reply actions  

When the kid comes back the Mavs will have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA

You move JET back to the bench as the 6th man. You can adjust to the opponents’ lineups and play either Butler or Marion and Chandler or Haywood.
Consistent scoring is this team’s biggest issue. If Roddy comes back healthy and gets the starting job we’d have 2 scorers in the starting lineup (Dirk and Roddy) and 3 scorers off the bench (JET, Caron when/if he gets his shit together, and Barea). Then there’s the role players and projects. That’s a lot of depth and we still have several trade chips.

There are a lot of questions, though. Will Roddy come back healthy and as explosive as last season? What will happen when/if he starts getting big minutes? How long until he becomes a capable PG? I guess we won’t start getting answers until December.

by mg4tx on Nov 15, 2010 5:13 PM CST reply actions  

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