Realistically: Can Dallas Win?

The easiest thing to do in the NBA, or any other sports for that matter, is to spew out facts and reasons as to why your respective team should win an NBA championship that year.

It is very easy to just state your reasons why it's your team's year, but what is forgotten by a lot of people about this, is that to win a Championship you can't just be a great club. You must be able to stand toe to toe against every other team, and beat them. This isn't Football(No offense at all to the sports). You can't Cinderella your way into the Finals(The Superbowl) by winning 3 games, 1 of which can be a bad game by the other team, another you have a good day, and a 3rd it's good luck or good bounces, or maybe weather, etc. To beat a team 4 out of 7 times, you must be a better team than them. You might edge out 1 lucky series, but you will not win 16 playoff games in 1 year unless you truly deserve to win a ring.

For you doubters, please take into account I'm no homer that believes we'll go 82-0, I'm not saying we will beat these team, merely that we CAN.

Quick warning- Brace yourself for and expect Sarcasm. If it's blatantly obvious something isn't true, well, chances are I'm not serious. Cha-Ching!

That being said, we cannot just assess our chances to win the league by saying "We have a strong lineup, with a good bench and much experience," because several other teams fit that role. What you have to do, is compare Dallas to the other powerhouses face to face, and wonder if we can beat them 4 out of 7 times. We can't rely on luck. We can't rely on injuries. We need to be confident we can beat these teams, or why not just rebuild? Why waste our time?

The first, naturally, is the LA Lakers.

Los Angeles- LA is a powerhouse. Say what you must, but I don't think many will argue this team is the favorite to win it all, except maybe those that believe the Heat will have chemistry to win. Position for Position, it does not look good. PG is practically a tie. WHAT?! Yes. Not talent wise, but what your team needs for you. My brother is a raging LA fan, thus he always directs me to ESPN and NBA.com reports to the Lakers, and after reading them all, Fish is practically a perfect fit for that team. It doesn't matter how much talent a player has, it's all about how much you help your team. And Fish helps his team almost as well as Kidd helps us. Since Fisher is old, thus cannot expose Kidd's weakness(lack of speed on defense) I'm going to give the Edge to Jason, no doubt. SG, whoever we field is obviously better. That Kobe fellow has no talent. None whatsoever. At SF, It's a tossup, with the Edge probably going to Artest, again, probably because of what he brings to LA. Not necessarily talent. Artest is very underrated in my eyes. At PF, people consider is close, but I will take Dirk, and I welcome any counterarguments  but I have to warn you, I'm very stubborn in my belief that Dirk is the #1 PF in the League. C goes to LA, with Bynum>Haywood. The Bench is close to a tie, with the Edge going to LA because Coaches are involved in the bench. However, with a surprise season/series from Roddy, I don't believe it's out of reach. LA hasn't played a series against Dallas in a while, and for some reason I'm strangely confident we can beat them given the chance. Oddly enough, the series rests on the shoulders of Dirk Nowitzki. If Dirk can give Pau trouble, or Odom trouble, it will disrupt the Laker offense. Look at the teams that have had success against LA:They beat them at the Bigs. That's the key to get to LA. Disrupt the Bigs. Make the offense 1 dimensional around Kobe, and hope he can't beat you. The Lakers are special and unique in the sense that they are the 1 team in the league that if a certain player is having one of his unreal nights, you cannot win(Kobe). Orlando, Dallas, the Suns, Boston, Cleveland, etc. etc. can all be beat when their respective stars go off. But the thing about Kobe is he's on his own level of stardom. Also, by playing them big down low when were on offense, it stops turnovers and steals that lead to fastbreak points for them. Force them to play half court offense, put pressure on Kobe to carry the load, and chances are, he won't have one of his "Kobe goes off" games 4 times out of 7, and ipso-facto, we can beat LA. Also: Take note that when on defense teams go away from Kobe, and if he can't get steals and stops, he tries to be dominant. He's very Macho/Alpha male. If he can't help LA on both sides of the ball he'll play all offense. That's the key. trigger his ego and force him to beat us alone. That's the best way to target LA.

San Antonio- San Antionio should have been beaten this year. I don't think Manu will go off like that against us, and hopefully Parker has seen his last days of being unreal. Duncan is declining at a steady rate. Our prime issue is that we can too roudy and fired up, and play stupid basketball. We need to calm down, take the loud off of Dirk on this series, because San An seems to know how to make Dirk play his hardest to produce normal Nowtizki results. Some teams Dirk goes off against he does because he demands the ball and goes right at them. San An is one team where Dirk prevails when he plays off the ball, gets in a slight groove, then takes over. Our problem was early on in games we would dump off the ball to Dirk on an island, with 6 to go in the shot clock, and hope for a miracle. If we play smart offense, play Roddy and Dojo(quick guards seem to be Spurs' kryptonite), and for F's sake organize our defense. If we're going to play Zone, we need to play a 3-2 versus San An because their entire offense is just drive+ kick, Drive and kick. A 2-3 does not and will not work well in the NBA. The league has too many shooters, and theres the 3-in-the-key rule. Go Man to man with Kidd on Ginobili, or 3-2.

Denver- The Thuggets give us trouble. They get their success in the 1 and the 3. Billups is ahead of Kidd in the PG ladder, and Anthony can not be stopped by Butler or Marion. Combine that with high flyers, great shotblockers, shooters, and people with Tattoos, and our players were scared. Let's be honest. There was fear in the eyes of the Mavericks. Will no longer be an issue. Since playing them, I believe the addition or Marion, Butler, Chandler, and Haywood(Stevenson too, but he plays little) adds toughness. With that being said, we are a more talented club that Denver. Outside of Anthony there's no reason Chauncey should tear up Jason. Kidd can excel against anyone who is not lightning quick/ Billups uses shooting and strength. Kidd can defend this. Also, Denver does not have the small quick guard to stop a Dojo or Beaubois. Also, if you recall, Dirk is great against Denver. If Dirk can perform persistently, and Chandler and Haywood can make them think twice about attacking the rim, there's no reason Denver should even take us to 7 games. We are a better basketball team than they are. We should be able to play helpside man, hinting towards Anthony, and beat this team. As long as we keep Terry outside of the Arena(His reckless shooting leads to long rebounds and fast break points) we can win. We need to play smart, halfcourt basketball. Denver thrives on runs where they take 8 or 9 point leads. Denver has not showed they can consistently beat a team playing halfcourt offense then halfcourt defense. Force them to do this by not turning it over, and like I said, Denver should not be a problem.

Thunder- OKC might be an issue. Call me nuts, but this team is my 2nd biggest fear behind LA. The thing about this team that frightens me is how they remind me of the Golden State Warriors. This team is fast, can shoot great, and has great youth. The key to beating them, like every other team, lies in Nowtizki. Their weakness is at the bigs. We need to attack them there, and when were not feeding it to Dirk it is important we work Durant. Durant can drop 40 any night on any team. To slow down this guy, is very obvious. There's no key play. It's almost a cliche in basketball. Get him in foul trouble, attack him on offense. Also, we just need to hope Westbrook doesn't go off on Kidd. Westbrook isn't really a fantastic amazing guard, but he is quick. This is the problem with Jason Kidd. There is a lot Kidd has going for him, but the speed issue is a big deal here. This team has so much going for them. The Thunder are fast and can shoot, and are led by a scoring machine in Durant. This is where we need Marion needs to play a role. That or Butler. Durant relies on great finesse and a good shot. Butler is a tough player, and well, "Tough Juice." Butler needs to muscle around Durant, force him to shoot jumpshots. The bad part is jumpshooting works. The main key to beating this team lies with our bench. We need to able to rely on guys to come off the bench and perform. Roddy would be a smart option to start at point guard against this team. If we can play small ball around Kidd, and run the fast break against the Thunder, we could beat them. This is an iffy situation. The Thunder remind me a lot of the old run and gun Mavericks too, with Nash Fin and Dirk. Dirk being Durant. The way to beat us is force us to play tough defense, and muscle us out. The Thunder like we were, are primarily a fast, jumpshooting team. We can defeat a jumpshooting team. Similar to Los Angleles, this may be slightly out of our hands. I hate to say it, and i bet a lot of people can't understand why I'm saying is since they were an 8th seed, but this might be a team we have to just play as well as we can against and hope the shots don't fall. I can't explain my reasoning. But the Spurs, Suns, Nuggets, Jazz, etc. Are teams we can beat with good play. Some teams we have to do our best and hope it's our night.

Suns/Jazz- These 2 teams I can put in the same category. The Sazz, or Juns if you will are your typical conference filling teams. They are strong, with solid defenses and semi-potent offenses. These are teams we will probably face in the playoffs and we need to win. If we face either we can't make it a series and risk elimination. If we are to truly win a Championship, these are the teams we must be able to beat in 5 games. Maybe 6. They're strong organizations, but missing something. The Suns lost Amar'e, and are now a run and gun team missing 80% of their halfcourt offense. I can't see the Suns realistically having a shot against anyone that has the talent to slow the ball down. Maybe a 6th or 7th seed, which leads to early elimination. The Jazz are missing the guy that can dominate another team. Williams is a strong asset, and can present an issue with Kidd, but I just think we can beat them consistently with a 1-2 punch with Dirk and Roddy, to force Williams to play D. Okur and their Bigs haven't been able to stop/slow Dirk in recent games, so I don't believe the Jazz can really pose a threat. Again, they have a great club. The Jazz and Suns aren't bad, and to most non-Mavs fans we're probably in the same group of conference fillers as they are. But the way I see it is, if we cannot beat teams of this caliber with rather ease(I'm not saying overlook them, mind you) then we can't realistically win a ring.

Blazers/Houston-These go in the same group because these 2 teams can be hit or miss teams depending on injures. These two teams can be in the top 4 in the west, or in the bottom 4 depending on who can stay on the court when. If both healthy, this can sink the Mavericks down in the Rankings which might lead to non- Home court advantage. It really is a toss-up as to if they'll perform or not. My idea is that one will underperform greatly, while the other slightly exceeds expectations. Both teams are dangerous in the fact that they they can play above average halfcourt offense, fast break offense, and defense. They can also both shoot and drive, and both teams seem to get good contributions from both their bigs and guards. The 2 problems with both teams is that they can't stay out of injuries, and that they aren't great at anything. They're above average at everything but nothing to hang their hat on. Also, neither has the 1 superstar that can win games for them. Scola and Ariza are solid, but players of that caliber are not the type that can take over a playoff game and bring in a ring. They're good, but might need a few years to be great. We can beat these teams playing Maverick basketball. I guess the key here would be to hit them from all angles. There are teams that we just smash from one angle, but these two teams don't have a clear weakness. We need to attribute our shooting and driving, as well as fast break offense and halfcourt. Balanced offense is the key to success.

 

There are other teams with a chance at the ring, maybe a small one, or a big one. But these are the top 8 teams we need to worry about. These teams might not be easy victories, not am I saying we can win with no issue. It will be tough to succeed against these teams, but what I was trying to achieve in this post is to prove that not being an extreme homer and bias, we CAN honestly defeat these teams. It won't be easy, but it's do-able.

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