Speculation into the Future - Deron Williams

by Bryan Gutierrez on Sep 8, 2010 1:28 PM CDT

Could Williams be eying his way out of town? (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Any time a disgruntled NBA player vents to the media, fans go crazy and start playing amateur-GM and start working out trade deals that are "can't miss" and they get the star and the championship is in the bag. More often than not, that situation hardly ever happens according to "the plan" but those proposals do make for interesting debate. One thing to remember now, these sets of circumstances are likely to happen much more now in the post "Decision" age. There is a situation right now in the NBA that is really under the radar that could emerge in the next few years and it could have a very serious impact on the Dallas Mavericks.

There was an article on Dime Magazine a little over a week discussing the idea of Deron Williams and his potential discontent with the future of the Jazz potentially leading him to make his way back "home" to the Dallas Mavericks.

If D-Will chooses to opt-out of his contract in 2012, where would he end up? How about following his roots in Dallas to play with the Mavericks. Deron starred at The Colony High School near Dallas, and last year at the NBA All-Star Game in Dallas, that was the happiest Williams has looked in two years. Another thing to consider is that the Mavericks will have substantial cap room in 2012, right when Deron can choose to become a free agent. If Deron ends up in Dallas, he would have a much better supporting cast than with the Jazz.

Dime Magazine.com

Now this article is nothing more than speculation, so everything in there has to be taken with a major grain of salt. It is what it is, but then you add Marc Stein into the mix and there is a little more fuel to the fire.

Following free agency, this summer has been dominated by trade rumors involving Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony.

While discussing Anthony on Thursday, ESPN.com's Marc Stein wrote a quick paragraph on Jazz point guard Deron Williams.

"I have a feeling he's next for all these trade stories," a Western Conference official said of Williams.

Utah has seen the departure of Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer and Wesley Matthews since February. Al Jefferson was quickly acquired with little given up in return and the team spent its lottery pick on Gordon Hayward.

ESPN.com

There is definite reasoning for the Mavericks to be interested in Williams, even if this is speculation down the road. Openly, they showed their interest in Chris Paul and were willing to throw everything outside of Dirk at New Orleans in order to get him. If they were willing to do that for Paul, it has to be obvious that they would do the same for Deron Williams. He's a hometown kid and I would put him above Chris Paul in terms of being a better point guard, I would rank Deron Williams as the best point guard in the entire NBA.

The situation in Utah definitely has the potential to turn volatile. They did add Al Jefferson and Gordon Haywood (through trade and the draft, respectively) but those additions don't overpower the subtractions. Utah is a talented team and they can make the playoffs but they've clearly shown they aren't contenders to represent the West in the NBA Finals. They run into the Lakers in the playoffs and they always end up being outmatched.

Deron has given the Jazz five years and a contract extension to try to bring a title to Utah and it hasn't worked out. He could reach the point where enough is enough and he wants to try somewhere else. You can review Williams' contract situation here. By looking at that, his contract is completely done after the 2012/13 season. Now there is always the option Deron could go the Carmelo route and start pushing the issue as early as next summer. He has a player option for the 12/13 season so 2011/12 is the last guaranteed year out of the deal.

The Mavericks have really changed their mindset over the past 5-10 years with payroll. Whether you like it or not, they've put themselves in a place of financial flexibility to where they remain a viable threat in the playoffs and are prepared to pounce on an opportunistic deal if it presents itself. Around that time where this could present itself, Jason Kidd will be at the twilight of his contract and the "passing of the torch" could be made to Williams. They already have an established relationship, Kidd was a mentor to Williams and Chris Paul during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. Dirk Nowitzki will be 34-35 years old but it's highly misguided to believe that his game will truly be deteriorating at a rapid rate at that time. Dirk's game isn't dependent on athleticism and if his shooting drops a little, he will still be a well-above average shooter. He should still be able to average 23-25 points and 6-8 rebounds a game at age 34 and 35.

Williams would be 28 years old and that's definitely not old by any stretch of the imagination for the point guard. He already established himself as an elite player and has shown himself to be a player who doesn't have a terrible history with injuries, that alone can set him apart from Chris Paul. You could try to shoot down hometown theory by using Chris Bosh but it's a different set of circumstances. Bosh viewed himself and Dirk as redundant and really wasn't interested in playing the center position.

Dallas could set up contracts that help keep them competitive, bank on the development of Roddy Beaubois and hope Dominique Jones develops into a solid rotational player and line it all up to try to make this happen via a trade. They could also hope that this strategic payroll planning could allow the Mavericks to reach rarefied air where they could actually be under the salary cap and sign Williams outright. Dallas would have the hometown vibe to it, no state taxes and still offer a premiere play in Dirk Nowitzki. The change in the CBA could tweak this idea somewhat but I highly doubt it's enough to really take Dallas out of the equation.

Deron Williams in the future for the Mavericks - Foolish or the Perfect Storm?

Poll

Deron Williams to the Mavericks: Foolish or the Perfect Storm

Foolish

263 votes

The Perfect Storm

247 votes

510 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

great article

kinda wish we had a fast-forward button sometimes.

by LJRotter on Sep 8, 2010 2:15 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah

That would be nice. We will just have to see how it plays out. If the Jazz get off to a really slow start this coming season, that will really start to put this idea into heavy motion. I think they still are a playoff team but they will have to scratch and claw to stay in it.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Sep 8, 2010 3:24 PM CDT reply actions

What about the Mavs "back court of the future"

I think that by the time DWill becomes available the Mavs will be set at guard. But there is really no point to bank on it. By that time we should know for sure if Roddy B and DoJo can handle the starting guard duties.
Also in two years there will be a lot of good young forwards coming off of their rookie contracts. And we should have an idea who can benefit the Mavs the most. So I’m banking that a forward or center or even a big shooting guard might be more of a need at that time. If it’s a proven vet with five or six years under his belt, that’s even better.

Also, I’m kind of sick of the idea that all these guys are trying to push their way out of their contracts and force a trade.

The “Decision” was classless, but James was a free agent.

CP3’s comments at Melo’s wedding also showed a lack of class.

I like Deron Williams and hope that he doesn’t try to play this same game.

by young guns on Sep 8, 2010 6:10 PM CDT reply actions

But nice job on the article

by young guns on Sep 8, 2010 6:29 PM CDT reply actions

I don't get why

he’d want to come here. Dirk will be 34 when Williams becomes a FA. In the meantime, POR will have Roy and Aldridge in their primes and a ton of cap space, ATL will have Bibby coming off the books and they’ll still have a great foundation in Smith and Johnson. ATL would be a perfect fit as Williams can just slide into Bibby’s old spot and he’ll be on a playoff team.

I think Williams would rather go to a team that will be competitive for the life of the contract he gets and that means a team whose best players are in their primes, not one whose best players are old and on the decline.

Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"

by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 8, 2010 9:56 PM CDT reply actions

Sorry I meant

Dirk will be 34 in ‘12-’13 when Williams will be able to opt-out.

Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"

by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 8, 2010 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Well

Again, Dirk at age 34 is still going to be a high caliber player in this league. His shooting touch is so effective that a natural decline is still going to having him shooting at a high level.

Atlanta is a terribly rough spot because ownership is happy just to make the playoffs and that’s about it. Joe Johnson’s contract is going to hurt over the long haul. They have Crawford who wants an extension but Al Horford is the bigger priority and he’ll get big money. The point is, the money is going to run out in Atlanta.

Portland is starting to get into the situation OKC will have to deal with in a few years, their young players are finally due for money and they have to make tight and tough decisions. Roy and Williams are redundant to an extent because they both really need the ball in their hands to really play to their potential. Williams would have to command the ball more over Roy, there’s not debate over that. They won’t let Oden walk, I’d be shocked if they did. They’ll still need a very strong insurance policy to protect Oden as well.

There is still the Roddy/DoJo factor in play. If they’re still here…it’s for a good reason, so they’ll be young and can run with Williams. It just appears over the next couple of years, the Mavericks will really need to find a younger SF to work with the future plans.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Sep 8, 2010 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Well

We’re going to have $37 mil tied in up in just 3 players in ‘12-’13 and ‘13-’14: Dirk, Haywood, and Marion, all of whom are going to be 33 or older. Beaubois will be 2 years away from FA in ‘12-’13 and we’ll have to be looking at deciding whether to extend him. Jones will be there too. Jones + Beaubois = another $3 mil in ‘12-’13. That’s $40 mil for just 5 players. Deron will want a max contract and if we give him one, that’ll leave us only about $10-$15 million depending on what the salary cap will be to fill out the remaining 9 spots on the roster. I thnk Deron will be looking at this thinking if he signs with us for what he thinks he should get, then the roster is going to be pretty weak: top-heavy with old players aside from himself and straitjacketed by payroll inflexibility in terms of the ability to add good young complementary players.

Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"

by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 8, 2010 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Portland's looking good for the future

All the guys they already had, and they added Luke Babbitt.
I think I might move there, I’ll just be a long distance fan of the Mavs.

your right about the money. All the contracts they are giving these older guys seem to be 1 or 2 years too long. And even the contract for Dirk, with the “big break” he gave Cubes, seems a little high for a guy in his 30’s.
Our only hope is that Roddy and DoJo turn out to be great, and then the Mavs can attract some top level talent.

by young guns on Sep 8, 2010 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions

But not another guard, unless he's 6'8" and can play SF.

by young guns on Sep 8, 2010 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Contracts

I’ll never ever say that the Mavericks are crippled by contracts, they always seem to find a taker…it may take a while, but they find a way. If you find a way to unload the Diop deal (eventually led to getting Carroll) and then finding a taker for Carroll, you can find ways. Not to say it’s a give me, but Marion’s contract is MUCH easier to unload in 1-2 years opposed to trying to deal it away now.

They can easily work favorable extensions before the time comes on Roddy and Dojo and make it work out for them. Also, don’t discount their ability to draft well…especially at the bottom end of the draft. They’ve gotten guys like Josh, Roddy and DoJo late in the draft and also finding Marquis after the draft.

The teams that were in question earlier DO look like they have favorable salaries in the future but they’re going to have to fill the roster out somehow based on what is leaving. (POR – Greg Oden isn’t going to leave, Wes Matthews isn’t going to leave, they’ll need a backup center, etc. etc.)

The new CBA is definitely going to be an interesting development to see how things work out, Max money isn’t going to be the max money we are familiar with now. That’s why all the guys were pouncing on extending now. They feel pretty strongly that the money won’t be there after next season. I personally believe if they reduce the max limit, the salary cap should go up.

Plus, Miami showed anything is possible. I know it’s a different set of circumstances with the talent level, but they put together a supporting cast with maybe a little bit less than what we have to offer. Their cast is much, much better than anyone could have anticipated.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Sep 9, 2010 1:24 AM CDT up reply actions

Well

i appreciate your optimism. I just think of Dirk getting older by the second and feel sad knowing his window is shrinking. He really needs a 2nd chair (and a 3rd chair) like we thought for a while Howard could be.

Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"

by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 9, 2010 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Dirk

I really don’t buy that Dirk is going to really drop off in the next two years. His game isn’t predicated on athleticism. It is if he wants to take the one-step fade, but if you just have him stop and pop, he’s going to kill you just as well. I don’t think he’ll be solely a stop and pop shooter 2 years down the road, but he won’t be exactly where he is now. He’s known for his shooting and that’s just not going to dip off.

Roddy is clearly the new hope as the #2. You can see valid justification in people believing that DoJo could eventually be the #3. He’s got to show that he can perform like he did in the SL against legit NBA talent though.

There is still the MLE to play with every year, just have to make sure you make the right selection with it.

by Bryan Gutierrez on Sep 10, 2010 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions

His D is predicated on his athleticism though.

Not sure you should be focussing solely on his O. He’s already neither a particularly agile or physical defender and as he ages that’s going to become more pronounced. Kurt Thomas compensates for his lack of agility by being physical, banging at players if they drive past him and bodying guys in the paint trying to prevent them from getting into position. That (and his ability to still shoot the 8-footer) is why he’s been able to stay in the league at his advanced age. Guys know they’re going to get beaten up a little in the paint by Kurt. I can’t see Dirk doing that as he slows down. His shot-blocking and rebounding numbers are also not that great for someone his size and yes, those two things rely on positioning but also on athleticism to a much larger extent.

Dirk tries hard, but you can only work with what you have. Like Terry, Dirk could erode into a 1-dimensional player who scores a lot but also allows the guys he’s guarding to score a lot. Haywood won’t be able to do it by himself, and he’s on the backend of his career as well. This is an issue Deron would be looking at: going to a team with aging post players whose D is on and off as their athleticism begins to slip.

Deron will be looking at the complete picture when it comes the teams laid out before him as a FA: offense, defense, age of the team, age of the star players, quality of the supporting cast, the year-to-year level of payroll flexibility over the life of his contract with which to add quality players, etc.

Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"

by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 10, 2010 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Dirk's contract is not necessarily too long

And what he brings will probably not change that much. But I think Marion and Hayward will show their age b4 their contracts are up. Lucky they’re not as much money.

As far as putting together the supporting cast after acquiring a superstar in his prime. It could happen. But the truth is, I don’t think that the kind of guys Miami through together are as much of a factor because they were able to get three young standout players, not just one.

That said, I think the Mavs have a better supporting cast right now. But will they be in two years is the question. As the team is presently constructed, that depends largely on whether the Mavs make a commitment to developing the young guys on the team right now. That is why I believe that trying to predict what Williams will do at that time makes no sense.

Or to assume that if we continue to add older guys, the Mavs will have the success that Boston had is just as much if not more of a risk than gambling on potential of young guys.

It’s better to just continually try and improve the team with the addition of good young players with potential along the way. Maybe if that happens it will open the door to more opportunities.

In the end, I also believe that in order to attract marque talent in their prime, the Mavs need to place more emphasis on youth and their development right now. And if any players are added other than a guaranteed game changer, they need to be well below 30.

by young guns on Sep 10, 2010 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree

The Mavs need to keep Roddy and DoJo, and add more talented young guys if they hope to attract an elite level player in their prime.

by young guns on Sep 8, 2010 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah

I hope we can add some guys without having to give away our young guys in exchange. We’d end up in some 5th circle of hell or something treading water for years. Wow what a horrible mix of metapors/cliches…

Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"

by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 9, 2010 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow.

300 votes, damn near right down the middle. My personal take is, as long as Jerry Sloan is in Utah, so is D-Will. After that, its up in the air, the dude is from WV, so he has no NBA loyalties.

The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.

by 420Phenom on Sep 10, 2010 7:11 PM CDT reply actions

Born in WV, but...

grew up in the Dallas area. But I don’t know if that has much influence on where he would play. Heard he just bought a house in San Diego. They don’t have a team now, but maybe he knows something we don’t.

by young guns on Sep 12, 2010 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions