Fallacies Regarding the CP3 Situation
Fallacy #1-- The New Orleans Hornets can't let CP3 walk and so they should trade him Rational Thinking: With the new salary cap (and with the old to some degree) owners can call the bluff of a demanding star. If the Hornets keep Paul this year and let him go to free agency, then they are the only ones who can offer him a 5 year deal with 7.5% raises. This ends up being a pile of cash. If they trade him, he gets that with whatever "Super Team" by which the Hornets get hoodwinked. Additionally, they get to keep him a year and make money off of him and he has to play well (to some degree) since it is a contract year for him. Hence, you aren't "letting him walk" they are calling a bluff and forcing him to choose between where he wants to go and more money. Amazingly, players tend to go with money.
Fallacy #2-- The New Orleans Hornets were getting the best deal they will get. Rational Thinking: Odom, KMart, Scola, etc. are not going to make them a good team. They will be a mediocre team with a lot of cash tied up in good roll players. The best deal they can get are picks and low-salary player OR Picks and a equal salary of decent players with relatively short contracts. This way they can at least have future opportunities in drafts and free agency (I know, no one will ever go to NO in FA)
Fallacy #3-- The Lakers gave up a lot to get Paul. Rational Thinking: The Lakers got an All-Star point guard for the next year to pair with Kobe and Bynum. They got below the salary cap by getting rid of long-term, high-dollar contracts and a trade exception; hence, they can be a part of FA signings in the next years as well as trades for other star players (Here is looking at you Howard). Additionally, they can offer CP3 a better salary than can anyone else.
Fallacy #4-- Stern's reaction was a kneejerk to the response of the owners. Rational Thinking: Stern is in charge of the NO Hornets until they are sold. Anyone who thinks that Mark Cuban doesn't have final say in a possible trade is insane. Stern knows the economics of the new CBA and knows the benefits of keeping or trading Paul. This is why any trade made will involve near equal salary or a large number of picks. If there was a response to the owners is was a response to suggestions by the owners that it would not be good business for NO to end flexibility before selling the team. They know that the Hornets will be sold for more if either 1) The team has CP3 or 2) It has flexibility in the future, but definitely not 3) A mediocre team with no flexibility or star power.
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Problems with your fallacies.
#1: Worked out well for the Cavs and the Raptors, huh? The financial issue can be mitigated by big-market endorsements (teams in LA, NY/NJ, or Chicago), or lack of state income tax (teams in FL or TX). Add that to star players’ desire to play for contenders, and salary issues aren’t as big as they appear.
#2: If well-coached, that roster would compete for a playoff spot, and would have been pretty fun to watch. Do you think this trade could have ended with the Hornets being a title contender?
#3: They gave up 2 of their best 3 players (assuming Bynum is never healthy for a full season). The result was 3 stars with significant history of knee problems surrounded by… a mental patient and not much else. One of the Lakers big issues last season was a lack of depth, and this would have made that worse. Also, they were going to make other signing or trades, so their temporary below-cap status wouldn’t last.
#4: Three smart GMs put together a trade that made sense for all parties, yet Stern asked Stu Jackson (same guy that gave Brant Reeves a six-year, $61.8-million contract extension in 1997) advice on the “basketball reasons” of the deal.
For more analysis, see Larry Coon’s dismantling of Dan Gilbert’s objections here:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7336526/nba-critique-dan-gilbert-letter
I'm thinking I don't agree with you...we'll see as I write
- Yes, there are all sorts of things that can be mitigating circumstances on the financial end, but we are going to have a tough time determining what those are for each individual player. However, what I believe is missing from your point is the fact that players can’t just go anywhere they want anymore and sacrifice a little bit of money. The CBA has brought in a new dynamic and it is obviously designed to keep players with their current teams.
However, with the super duper luxury tax that will be in effect and the cap issues that are now present, IF some of these teams a player like Paul wishes to go to are not ABLE to offer him a contract, the point is probably moot. Teams are getting one amnesty contract to get rid of and its going to be a little bit harder to get rid of players via trade, just to sign one player. As all of this CBA stuff moves forward, the bottom-feeder teams will be filling out rosters and building to contend, while many contenders will not be able to keep their teams together, due to salary cap constraints, thus forcing them to fall back towards the pack a bit. For example, the Nets were Howard’s first choice, but they couldn’t get rid of enough salary or send off enough talent to acquire him, and still have him want to come to the Nets. It’s about teams being able to keep their players and building a team that fans can get behind.
The Cavs and Raptors example isn’t the same and is probably not appropriate for the Paul issue. Paul asked to be traded, but he only wanted to be traded to a handful of teams. This limits NO’s options in working out a deal. The difference with Paul and the Cavs situation is that Paul still has another year to play. LeBron actually gave many indications that there was a good chance he’d stay in Cleveland. Well, with what we know now, that was a lie. They had developed this plan a year prior, about all playing together. I’d have to crunch the numbers, but that plan may not have been able to work or at least be as attractive under the new CBA. He is right that Paul “has” to play well, as this is his contract year.
The bottom line is that players should not get to dictate where they will play UNTIL they are free agents, or worse, hold their teams hostage to take deals THE TEAM feels are not in their best interest. Well, the thing with the Hornets is, THE TEAM is owned by the league and if they want a new owner to buy the team, you can’t have the team hamstrung by old players or bad contracts as an attractive selling point.
2) I don’t even know how to reply to this point. I don’t think there would have been anything fun about watching the Hornets play if that was the roster. I don’t think anybody would want to go see a team with some decent players, who all hated the fact that they were traded there and just biding their time to get the hell out. Did the Hornets make it to the playoffs anytime recently? So, if they make it there with a worse overall team, in attitude, effort and talent, does that seem like a recipe for fans getting behind the franchise that just gave their elite player away for expensive role players that really amount to a pile of junk and wasted time/money?
Btw, it is apparent that this fallacy that he listed was indeed a fallacy, as is indicated by the potential deal with the Clippers. That draft pick is huge!!
3) I don’t know if we agree on this point or not. However, basically he was saying that the Lakers would now all of a sudden be able to sign free agents next off-season if they could get rid of those contracts, and this is in addition to being able to offer the best contract to Paul (if the deal would have been done by December 31st. Additionally, IF they were going to go after Howard in trade or in free agency, Bynum would be traded. Personally, I think the Lakers are in deep shit, even before trading Odom. The new CBA is going to hurt them a lot more than many teams. They have a strong fan base no matter what, and they just want a superstar to cheer for. Sure, they want to win, but as long as there is a West, a Magic, a Kareem, a Shaq, a Kobe, a Paul or Howard in a Laker uniform, they will still sell tickets and always have “a chance”.
There was a shit-storm when LAL got Gasol for basically nothing. However, having Kobe and some of the other players helped Gasol perform even better. Without Kobe or a similar player, he isn’t as good or effective….Thus, my reasoning for saying they are dumping expensive junk on NO or Houston. The Lakers can live without those players, especially at those prices, because Kobe and Paul can make above-average players look like stars in this league. AND NOBODY wants to help the Lakers get better while they take a dump on a team held hostage by its star player.
4) Well, the bottom line on his last point is contained in the last sentence. That deal would have become outcome #3 on the list. You can be a shitty decision-maker but still a wonderful analyst. I’m pretty sure Stern heard it from the other owners more than any input from Stu Jackson…lol THIS scenario is precisely the kind of thing the lockout was about.
I don’t believe the deal made sense for all parties…I believe the Hornets found themselves in a worse situation and IF they made the playoffs, it was partly due to the fact that Houston got shittier in the deal also. I think all of the F.O. people are smart, but that has NEVER stopped them from making bad trades, bad signings or just flat out bad decisions.
I read your whole post, but I can’t comments on every point. Here are my final thoughts in brief on a couple phrases that stuck out:
#1:
bq. IF some of these teams a player like Paul wishes to go to are not ABLE to offer him a contract, the point is probably moot.
But we’re not discussing this in a vacuum. Both LA teams have acceptable assets to offer for Paul. Besides, 10 teams match the criteria of big-market and/or no state income tax. Also, the primo talents that can hold franchises for ransom in these situations are pretty rare, too. Many of these market-favorable teams (Mavs, Lakers, Rockets, Heat, Spurs, Bulls, and maybe Nets) are well-run enough to plan ahead for stars that would become available.
#2:
bq. Did the Hornets make it to the playoffs anytime recently? So, if they make it there with a worse overall team, in attitude, effort and talent, does that seem like a recipe for fans getting behind the franchise that just gave their elite player away for expensive role players that really amount to a pile of junk and wasted time/money?
In my mind, the Lakers deal was a better version of the Knick-Nuggets deal which Denver did pretty well in (better record without Melo than with him). It all depends on whether the Hornets are better off staying competitive or blowing everything up (the Clippers deal). Both were acceptable offers for either strategy, and it’s infuriating that Stern refuses to accept one of them.
#3:
bq. Lakers would now all of a sudden be able to sign free agents next off-season if they could get rid of those contracts, and this is in addition to being able to offer the best contract to Paul (if the deal would have been done by December 31st.
Take a look at their number and tell me how that would happen. LA would have to sign more players to fill out their 15 now, and definitely wouldn’t have max money available for a free agent next summer unless they amnestied one of their stars, and even then maybe not. Also, my main point was that Gasol and Odom are both VERY good players, and the trade would have made a roster that lacked for depth even shallower.
#4:
bq. I don’t believe the deal made sense for all parties…I believe the Hornets found themselves in a worse situation and IF they made the playoffs, it was partly due to the fact that Houston got shittier in the deal also. I think all of the F.O. people are smart, but that has NEVER stopped them from making bad trades, bad signings or just flat out bad decisions.
I’m well aware that I’ve learned less about basketball than Mitch Kupchak and Darryl Morey have forgotten. As I said in point 2, it’s a matter of whether staying competitive or blowing up the team was in NO’s best interests. The league said they’d let Demps and Sperling make those calls, then they cut them off on questionable grounds.
Here’s another really solid article on the topic from someone that’s looked at this in more detail than any of us SBN commenters:
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/12106/the-misadventures-of-david-stern
Rebuttal
#1
Your Argument (As I understand it): While there are some incentives to remain in a small market team, they are overcome by incentives to play elsewhere. These incentives include states with no income tax and teams with exorbant TV deals or other revenue sources. Additionally, players desire to play for contenders and the contenders are usually big market teams that plan well for the future.
Rebuttal: You seem to be implying that small market teams cannot plan ahead; they can and should plan ahead, which is what this discussion is about. If we look at the teams you listed, only a few of them AFAIK are able to give a max contract to a FA in the upcoming year. Additionally, while Rockets and Spurs have no income tax and the Rockets are in a big market, I don’t hear of many FA desiring to go to those two places. While this may change, the Hornets should remember that they are not “Guaranteed” to lose CP3.
In other words, while CP3 can leave the Hornets next year, it is not as if he can pick from every team, and especially not the Knicks. Yet, owners often act as if the player is definitely going to leave because they have a list although often note of the teams on the list could sign them.
#2
Your Argument (As I understand it): The deal with the Lakers was a good one and the Clippers deal was good in a different way, but Stern denied both.
Rebuttal: While I would disagree about the Lakers deal being good, I will accept that the Clippers deal is a good one. However, Stern has not denied the Clippers deal. He is bargaining. I believe that Stern is demonstrating where the power in these types of deals is. He is suggesting that it is with the team giving up the star. While you may disagree, he is acting as an owner that thinks his player is worth more than currently offered. If no one gives a better offer, I suspect that he will take the current deal.
#3
Your Argument (As I understand it): The Lakers would not shed enough salary to get other free agents and they would be shallow in depth.
Rebuttal: If the only argument we can find for why the Lakers don’t benefit from the trade is that they would have trouble signing role players, I think they did pretty well. Teams with 2+ stars never have trouble signing good role players for lower salaries (See Miami). Additionally, shallow with 2+ stars is not prohibitive to being a great team (See Miami).
Your Argument (As I understand it): The Hornets can either stay competitive or blow up the team. Either way, they should take one of the two trades.
Rebuttal: Again, I agree that these are their choices. However, staying competitive (read: mediocre) in the NBA is death. you will struggle to get better because of bad draft pic location. Blowing it up gives you the opportunity to get better draft location in the future as well as flexibility for free agency.
Regarding the article, it was clearly an Anti-Stern article based not only upon this decision, but on a number of his actions. I suggest the following article as one solely about this topic.
http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/217408/David_Sterns_Basketball_Reasons

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