Statistical Roundup: Dallas vs. Portland

These are the values of the regular season. Many stats are shown on a per 100 possession basis, because it's more accurate than just a per game basis. I took into account both offensive and defensive values in the categories and calculated the advantage one team should hold. Here we go:

DAL Opponents POR Opponents Advantage
Efficiencies 109.67 105.04 108.83 107.11 DAL +1.45
Scoring Margin (Points Scored)
8220
7873 7896
7771 DAL +2.70
Points per Game
100.2 96.0 96.3
94.8 DAL +1.35
Points in the Paint per Game
36.7 41.6 40.6 40.2 POR +2.65
Fastbreak Points per Game
14.5 13.7 10.1 11.4 DAL +1.05
Field Goals Attempted pp100 86.2 88.8 90.9 85.7 POR: +3.9
Field Goals Made pp100 41.0 40.0 40.7 40.0 DAL: +0.15
Field Goal Percentage 47.48%
45.01% 44.73%
46.70% DAL: +2.22%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 23.6 19.8 20.7 19.9 DAL: +1.5
3-Field Goals Made pp100 8.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 DAL: +1.0
3-Field Goal Percentage 36.48% 34.32% 34.46% 36.74% DAL: +2.22%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 24.7 24.4 25.3 25.8 DAL: +0.4
Free Throws Made pp100 19.2 18.3 20.3 19.8 DAL: +0.2
Free Throw Percentage 77.68% 75.03% 80.44%
76.77% POR: +0.51%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 52.47% 48.83% 48.65% 50.95% DAL: +2.97%
True Shooting Percentage 56.47% 52.76% 53.31% 55.18% DAL: +2.79%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 22.23% 20.63% 22.37% 23.06% DAL: +1.15%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 74.84% 75.89% 71.98% 70.54% POR: +1.25%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 24.11% 25.16% 29.46% 28.02% POR: +1.25%
Steals pp100 7.4 8.3 9.1 7.8 POR: +1.1
Turnover Percentage 13.59% 12.99% 12.62% 15.44% POR: +1.71%
Assist Percentage 63.67% 56.38% 58.83% 54.17% DAL: +1.32%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.71 1.52 1.62 1.22 POR: +0.105
Block Percentage 5.45 4.57% 5.44 5.45% DAL: +0.94%
Fouls pp100
21.0 22.0 28.0 24.0 DAL: +2.5

Lets go on with a comparison of the starting lineups. It was a bit difficult because Carlisle recently switched back to DeShawn Stevenson as the starting SG and therefore the probable starting lineup in the playoffs for the Mavericks hasn't got a reliable sample size. So I went with Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler here. You could actually make a case that this is the "real" starting lineup anyway, because Terry plays the bulk of the SG minutes. So we could say that we compare the two lineups that will be on the court for the most time during that series.

DAL Opponents POR Opponents Advantage
Efficiencies 123.70 101.71 124.45 110.93 DAL: +4.23
Field Goals Attempted pp100 81.1 88.2 89.8 88.5 POR: +4.2
Field Goals Made pp100 39.9 34.6 45.0 44.1 DAL: +2.2
Field Goal Percentage 49.51%
39.25% 51.10%
49.79% DAL: +4.48%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 18.1 24.7 21.1 22.4 POR: +2.65
3-Field Goals Made pp100 6.6 8.3 8.5 9.3 POR: +0.45
3-Field Goal Percentage 36.36% 33.33% 40.35% 41.32% DAL: +2.00%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 44.0 31.1 30.9 17.8 POR: +0.1
Free Throws Made pp100 37.4 24.2 25.9 13.5 DAL: +0.4
Free Throw Percentage 85.00% 77.88% 83.83%
76.04% POR: +0.33%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 53.22% 43.93% 54.85% 55.02% DAL: +4.73%
True Shooting Percentage 61.58% 49.90% 60.16% 57.57% DAL: +4.55%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 46.10% 27.41% 28.87% 15.27% DAL: +2.55%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 75.39% 68.06% 70.74% 70.21% DAL: +3.40%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 31.94% 24.61% 29.79% 29.26% DAL: +3.40%
Steals pp100 8.0 9.4 10.4 5.2 POR: +3.3
Turnover Percentage 13.29% 11.67% 10.13% 16.25% POR: +3.87%
Assist Percentage 62.07% 55.56% 61.73% 54.62% POR: +0.30%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.61 1.43 2.38 1.29 POR: +0.455
Block Percentage 5.08% 4.05% 3.30% 5.65% DAL: +1.69%
Fouls pp100s 19.8 30.8 17.6 26.5 POR: +1.05


Finally the benches. Lineups that qualified consist of at least 2 bench players, don't consist players that aren't with the team any longer (Sasha Pavlovic for Dallas, Joel Przybilla for Portland in example) and have to be in the Top5 bench lineups in terms of possessions:

DAL Opponents POR Opponents Advantage
Efficiencies 110.95 102.69 113.57 107.93 DAL: +1.31
Field Goals Attempted pp100 87.8 87.4 95.9 92.4 POR: +1.55
Field Goals Made pp100 42.3 39.0 44.8 42.4 DAL: +0.45
Field Goal Percentage 48.20%
44.70% 46.70%
45.90% DAL: +1.35%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 21.0 19.8 17.5 21.4 DAL: +2.55
3-Field Goals Made pp100 7.3 6.7 7.6 7.0 +/- 0
3-Field Goal Percentage 34.90% 33.70% 43.30% 32.50% POR: +4.80%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 25.7 24.9 20.8 20.4 DAL: +0.2
Free Throws Made pp100 19.0 18.0 16.5 16.2 DAL: +0.35
Free Throw Percentage 73.90% 72.00% 79.30%
79.00% POR: +0.80%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 52.40% 48.50% 50.60% 49.70% DAL: +1.50%
True Shooting Percentage 56.00% 52.20% 54.10% 53.30% DAL: +1.50%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 21.60% 20.60% 17.20% 17.50% DAL: +0.65%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 72.10% 74.40% 67.20% 66.80% POR: +1.35%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 25.60% 27.90% 33.20% 32.80% POR: +1.35%
Steals pp100 7.7 8.8 9.6 7.0 POR: +1.85
Turnover Percentage 13.30% 14.90% 11.60% 14.90% POR: +0.85%
Assist Percentage 59.10% 25.79% 62.90% 25.30% POR: +2.15%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.64 1.36 2.03 1.34 POR: +0.205
Block Percentage 5.10% 5.80% 6.30% 4.50% POR: +1.25%
Fouls pp100s 21.9 24.0 20.8 22.6 POR: +0.15


Among Western Conference Playoff Teams the Portland Trailblazers are the worst team in terms of opponent shooting percentages (eFG%, TS%, FG%, 3FG%) and defensive rebounding. So they are really a subpar halfcourt defensive team because they give up high shooting percentages while not allowing too much in the paint: Only 40.6 Points per Game which is good for 11th in the league. They give up 40.6% from 10-15 feet, 41.2% from 16-23 feet and 55.1% (eFG%) from beyond the arc. All these values are the second worst among all Playoff Teams. Dallas is 3rd in Field Goal Percentage and 4th in eFG% and they also average more made field goals as Portland so they should capitalize at the offensive end especially because they are not living in the paint.
That said, the Trail Blazers will have the advantage in Points in the Paint. Although Portland is not an elite team in either scoring in or defending the paint, Dallas is even worse. So it will come down to the question whether Portland is able to force the Mavs to get something going in the inside. I don't think they will win the series if they get involved into a halfcourt skirmish.
Another interesting story is rebounding. Portland is one of the worse teams in defensive rebounding and one of the better in offensive rebounding. It's the other way round with the Mavericks. So either team has to keep their advantage in their superior area while trying to improve on the other end to win the rebounding battle.
An area the Mavericks struggled throughout the season is taking care of the ball. Portland has the clear edge here. They are forcing more turnovers while giving up less. Therefore they lead the Mavs in Assist/Turnover-Ratio despite the fact that the Mavs are the better ball-moving team.

Overall the Mavericks have an advantage statistically. What stands out is that Portland probably is the worst defensive team in the West. I updated the probabilities to reach the NBA Finals based on the +/-18 Defensive Efficiency yesterday and Portland ranks dead last with 0.16%. Their MoV also doesn't predict a deep playoff run.

Some analysts nonetheless do believe Portland will win the series due to favorable matchups. So we'll see how that will play out I guess.

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