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Now's the Time For Dirk To Step Up

PORTLAND, OR - APRIL 23:   Dirk Nowitzki #41 and Jason Kidd #2 of the Dallas Mavericks walks off the floor against the Portland Trail Blazers in Game Four of the Western Conference Quarterfinals in the 2011 NBA Playoffs on April 23, 2011 at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

The Mavericks are no strangers to controversial finishes in the playoffs, choking leads away and letting other players add historical performances to their growing legend while seemingly every call goes against them. I don't even need to mention Miami, because its obvious. However, the last time this happened was not actually the 2006 Finals, but the 2nd Round of 2009. Recall that Denver-Dallas showdown. After dropping the first two games in Denver, Dallas comes back home and plays Denver to a standstill, and actually lead by two late. With a foul to give, Antoine Wright intentionally fouled Carmelo Anthony, but the referees said he did not make enough contact, and Melo stepped up to swish a three from the left wing.

Controversial? Choke? Classic? Take your pick. It certainly reminds of the Finals, and also of Brandon Roy's miraculous fourth quarter Saturday evening. All the same factors are there.

Dirk knows that too. In Game 4 against the Nuggets, Dirk dragged that Mavericks team with his to the tune of 44 points on 25 shots, as he dueled Carmelo in the battle of the superstars. Here against Portland, Dirk has an added advantage: he's not down 0-3 anymore.

Star-divide

So far in this series, Dirk has clearly been the Mavericks leader. Everyone and their mother -- and their red-headed stepchild, just for good measure -- knows what Dirk can do offensively. He hits "jumpers", if indeed his off-balance, 45 degree fades that go twenty feet in the air before descending back to earth and falling through the rim can be limited to that term. Everyone also seemed to know what Dirk could do defensively...or at least they thought they did.

Here in the Mavericks-Blazers matchup, though, Dirk has been no where near the defensive liability he's often made out to be. There's physical limitations that Dirk has, but a lot of defense is just effort, and Dirk's giving everything he has on both ends. Nowitzki has been an underrated man defender for several years now, but his below average rotations and weak side defense have picked up so far in this series. He'll never be a defensive anchor, but he's not hurting the Mavericks on that end anymore.

Dirk's offense has trended the opposite way, unfortunately. He's had some big fourth quarters, he's had some ridiculous momentum changing and-1's, he's strung a couple buckets together here and there, but it still seems like he's not dominating in quarters 1-3 like Dirk usually tends to do. It seems almost sacrilegious to say anything of the sorts about the superstar who's the reasons the Mavericks did not win 20 games and who is averaging 27 points and 7 rebounds, but I'm not calling him out, just pointing out that he can play better. Honestly, that's a little bit scary, but Dirk no doubt agrees to.

After a career high 51.7% field goal percentage in the regular season, Dirk is shooting just 33/80 against Portland, about ten whole percentage points worse at 42%. Portland's defense has to be given credit for their great work on Dirk Nowitzki, but Dirk has faced tough defense before, and the reason he's already a Hall of Fame lock is that in the end, he's unstoppable.

Culminating in his 20 point, 2 rebound performance in Game 4, Dirk has definitely been stopped by Portland. So let me repeat: In the end, he's unstoppable. Combine all these factors, and hopefully Monday night is when Dirk decides to go off.

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The Mavs aren't soft

They just live and die by the jump shot, and especially the 3 ball. Dirk is the only consistent jump shooter on the team (Terry, Stojakovich and Kidd go from on fire to ice cold, as proven by game 4). I see five Mavs with the athleticism to make penetrating drives to the basket: Roddy B, Caron Butler, Corey Brewer, JJ and sometimes Marion. The first three are on the sidelines. JJ’s too short and his vertical doesn’t make up for it like it does for Roddy B. He always gets stuffed, although I like the occasional kickouts to Dirk.

Corey Brewer is in my opinion the wild card the Mavs have right now – defensively and offensively. He’s easily one of the fastest and most energetic/athletic Mavs. We know he can score and defend and make things happen. Coach should have put him on Brandon Roy (and if we make it to the next round, should do so on Kobe) instead of assuming Terry will step it up, and instructed him to drive to the basket instead of settling for three pointers.

I’d be interested to see a Barea/Brewer/Marion/Dirk/Chandler lineup. Or Barea/Brewer/Roddy/Dirk/Chandler. He should have done this during the season more instead of now. The guards need to penetrate instead of taking 3s and either shoot or kick back to Dirk, and pick up the tempo to a pace that wears the other team out. Barea, Brewer and Roddy could kill the other team on fast breaks and change the perception of the Mavs as slow, old and unathletic. It would add a wild element that could be hit-or-miss, but hey, so is the pure jump shooting strategy. If we lose Kidd, Stojakovich and Terry over the next year or so, it seems likely to move in this direction anyway.

by lemonbrigade on Apr 25, 2011 3:42 PM CDT reply actions  

To your last point

I hear what you’re saying, but we are never going to out-athletic anyone, especially the Blazers.

"You're failing Seymour; what is it with you and failure?"

by Maximilian on Apr 25, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe not,

but it wouldn’t hurt to try, at least for a while. Just to throw off their defense. But I think Brewer should be in there as a defensive stopper alone.

by lemonbrigade on Apr 25, 2011 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Portland fan here....

I think these games are now going to come down to confidence. Dirk should have all the confidence in the world (his shots are amazing to watch) because he is your go-to-guy and should of seen way more touches in the last game. Portland seems to always fall short in this category when they have a chance to secure a win. Home court is obviously going to bring that confidence and you guys have that advantage still.

Do you think that Dallas’s confidence is down a little since last game, or will they just let it go and come out fighting?

PS This has been by far the best series of the playoffs.

Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.
-- Scottie Pippen

by BlazerRoddy on Apr 25, 2011 4:26 PM CDT reply actions  

it's hard to say where their confidence is...

because it’s like their watching the 2006 version of themselves. I HOPE they have bad memories and can play tonight like it’s the only game that matters, but that remains to be seen. And as for the best series… I’d like to think so too :)

Managing Editor of MavsMoneyball.com

by LJRotter on Apr 25, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

That and the Lakers-NO series

make the pain hurt a little less. Spurs have to win 3/4 without homecourt advantage anymore – we only have to win 2/3. And the NO-LAL series is likely to go on as long as ours, as opposed to the Lakers getting five extra days of rest had they swept. I’m not even convinced LAL even gets out of there alive the way they’ve been playing. And I’d say getting NO in the second round means we’ve got a good chance to meet OKC (likely) in the Finals. Who don’t match up with us well… :)

by lemonbrigade on Apr 25, 2011 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

they have all the ingredients

time for everything to come together for this game. Dirk needs to score early and often, though we all know he loves to score late in games. He’d be able to kick the ball out later in the game if he establishes his shot early.

by miamigirl54 on Apr 25, 2011 4:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Time for Dirk to step up?

What about Rick Carlisle? His head was up his ass that entire 4th quarter in game 4; you would think that after the first 20 points in a row by Roy, he might just get this little thing called a thought in his head… “Hey, we need to put a defensive stopper on that guy!”

Jason Terry? Not in the building? Okay. How about you, Mr. So-Called-Matrix? Nope? Fine. Dirk is the only one that ever shows up in the postseason.

Super Bowl XLV Champions, the Green Bay Packers!

by mike_o on Apr 25, 2011 6:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Marion has been the defensive stopper on this team every since he arrived and has shut down countless superstars.

Roy just had his number, but the Mavericks don’t go away from Dirk just because he can’t hit a shot. Marion is the best wing defender, and so he was defending Roy for much of the 4th.

by Tim Cato on Apr 25, 2011 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

You don't stay with something that isn't working.

DeShawn Stevenson and Corey Brewer were available.

Super Bowl XLV Champions, the Green Bay Packers!

by mike_o on Apr 26, 2011 1:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

maybe YOU don't

but that’s Carlisle’s specialty

Managing Editor of MavsMoneyball.com

by LJRotter on Apr 27, 2011 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

watch out on thursday!

dirk’s gonna show up with beastly performance…

HOPE is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of men.

by simpleton cxi on Apr 25, 2011 11:23 PM CDT reply actions  

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