In my Statistical Roundup at the start of the series I calculated which team should hold what advantage throughout the series. Here's a look at the series numbers compared to the prediction. "Advantage" now is the actual one and "Prediction" the values of the Roundup.
| DAL | POR | Advantage | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 112.51 | 106.28 | DAL +6.23 |
DAL +1.45 |
| Scoring Margin (Points Scored) |
560 |
529 |
DAL +5.17 |
DAL +2.70 |
| Points per Game |
93.3 | 88.2 |
DAL +5.10 |
DAL +1.35 |
| Points in the Paint per Game |
37.0 | 40.0 | POR +3.0 |
POR +2.65 |
| Fastbreak Points per Game |
8.2 | 12.2 | POR +4.0 |
DAL +1.05 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 88.80 | 88.20 | DAL +0.60 | POR +3.9 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 40.38 | 39.98 | DAL +0.40 | DAL +0.15 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 45.48% | 45.33% | DAL +0.15% | DAL +2.22% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 24.31 | 20.09 | DAL +4.22 | DAL +1.5 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 9.24 | 6.03 | DAL +3.21 | DAL +1.0 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 38.02% | 30.00% | DAL +8.02% | DAL +2.22% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 29.13 | 25.92 | DAL +3.21 | DAL +0.4 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 22.50 | 20.29 | DAL +2.21 | DAL +0.2 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 77.24% | 78.29% | POR +1.05% | POR +0.51% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 50.68% | 48.75% | DAL +1.93% | DAL +2.97% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 55.36% | 53.35% | DAL +2.01% | DAL +2.79% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 25.34% | 23.01% | DAL +2.33% | DAL +1.15% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 75.56% | 71.55% | DAL +4.01% | POR +1.25% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 28.45% | 24.44% | DAL +4.01% | POR +1.25% |
| Steals pp100 | 6.23 | 6.83 | POR +0.60 | POR +1.1 |
| Turnover Percentage | 14.47% | 13.86% | POR +0.61% | POR +1.71% |
| Assist Percentage | 56.72% | 51.26% | DAL +5.46% | DAL +1.32% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.58 | 1.48 | DAL +0.10 | POR +0.105 |
| Block Percentage | 4.98% | 7.06% | POR +2.08% | DAL +0.94% |
| Fouls pp100 |
23.51 | 25.11 | DAL +1.60 | DAL +2.5 |
In the West Dallas still owns the best Efficiency Difference in the playoffs and now also the best Offensive Efficiency among all playoff teams. That's quite impressive. Remember that the Hornets were supposed to be cannon fodder and compared to the Lakers Dallas posted better Efficiency numbers in both categories against a much tougher opponent.
Again we'll move on by comparing the starting units. Note that this time I actually did use the real starting lineup for Dallas. Not the one with Terry.
| DAL | POR Lineups | POR | DAL Lineups | Advantage | Prediction |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 95.80 | 98.59 |
103.05 | 103.05 | POR +1.39 | DAL +4.23 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 88.36 | 91.15 | 88.33 | 89.56 | POR +0.78 | POR +4.2 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 37.20 | 40.92 | 39.87 | 40.48 | POR +1.56 | DAL +2.2 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 42.11% | 44.90% | 45.14% | 48.97% | DAL +0.52% | DAL +4.48% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 22.32 | 9.30 | 13.49 | 18.40 | DAL +8.97 | POR +2.65 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 9.30 | 4.65 | 6.13 | 6.75 | DAL +2.64 | POR +0.45 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 41.67% | 50.00% | 45.45% | 36.67% | POR 8.56% | DAL +2.00% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 17.67 | 16.74 | 21.47 | 23.92 | DAL +1.69 | POR +0.1 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 12.09 | 12.09 | 17.18 | 15.34 | POR +0.92 | DAL +0.4 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 68.42% | 72.22% | 80.00% | 64.10% | POR +9.85% | POR +0.33% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 47.37% | 47.45% | 48.61% | 48.97% | DAL +0.14% | DAL +4.73% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 49.83% | 50.04% | 52.70% | 51.48% | POR +0.72% | DAL +4.55% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 13.68% | 13.27% | 19.44% | 17.12% | POR +0.95% | DAL +2.55% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 72.22% | 75.00% | 79.52% | 76.32% | POR +2.99% | DAL +3.40% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 25.00% | 27.78% | 23.68% | 20.48% | POR +2.99% | DAL +3.40% |
| Steals pp100 | 5.58 | 8.37 | 6.75 | 6.13 | POR +1.71 | POR +3.3 |
| Turnover Percentage | 19.53% | 15.81% | 14.72% | 12.27% | POR +3.09% | POR +3.87% |
| Assist Percentage | 60.00% | 52.27% | 55.38% | 57.58% | DAL +4.97% | POR +0.30% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.14 | 1.35 | 1.50 | 1.90 | POR +0.09 | POR +0.455 |
| Block Percentage | 7.37% | 7.14% | 6.94% | 4.79% | POR +0.96% | DAL +1.69% |
| Fouls pp100s | 26.97 | 24.18 | 25.15 | 23.92 | DAL +0.78 | POR +1.05 |
Both units couldn't provide an edge for either team. For Dallas, the starting unit remains a problem. It has a negative Efficiency Differential, has been outscored and outrebounded by Portland and posted an atrocious Assist/Turnover-Ratio of 1.14. That's not a good sign going forward. The team has been haunted by slow starts this season and while DeShawn Stevenson provides a defensive spark early in the ballgame he isn't really the type of guy you'll need to get your offense going. Replace Stevenson with Jason Terry and the team jumps to an Efficiency Differential of 44.25 while shooting 57.63%. The Defensive Efficiency remains at a respectable 105.94. That speaks volumes.
At last the benches. Again lineups qualify that consist of at least two bench players and are in the Top5 of all bench lineups in terms of possessions played.
| DAL | POR Lineups | POR | DAL Lineups | Advantage | Prediction |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 129.63 | 110.46 | 107.14 | 128.14 | DAL +20.09 | DAL +1.31 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 92.43 | 89.04 | 93.86 | 81.45 | POR 4.51 | POR +1.55 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 47.34 | 40.58 | 41.62 | 40.72 | DAL +2.93 | DAL +0.45 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 51.22% | 45.69% | 44.34% | 50.39% | DAL +5.79% | DAL +1.35% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 29.30 | 23.11 | 28.34 | 26.55 | DAL +2.20 | DAL +2.55 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 12.40 | 7.89 | 7.97 | 10.62 | DAL +3.58 | +/- 0 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 44.46% | 35.12% | 27.00% | 40.96% | DAL +11.65% | POR +4.80% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 27.61 | 27.61 | 20.37 | 44.28 | DAL +11.95 | DAL +0.2 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 22.54 | 21.41 | 15.95 | 36.31 | DAL +10.75 | DAL +0.35 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 83.36% | 77.74% | 70.88% | 83.34% | DAL +9.04% | POR +0.80% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 58.85% | 50.07% | 48.48% | 56.63% | DAL +8.47% | DAL +1.50% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 62.57% | 54.78% | 51.92% | 64.07% | DAL +9.97% | DAL +1.50% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 25.45% | 23.98% | 17.00% | 46.70% | DAL +15.59% | DAL +0.65% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 71.00% | 72.62% | 68.67% | 75.45% | DAL +2.58% | POR +1.35% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 27.38% | 29.00% | 24.55% | 31.33% | DAL +2.58% | POR +1.35% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.89 | 5.07 | 6.20 | 4.43 | DAL +0.53 | POR +1.85 |
| Turnover Percentage | 10.70% | 15.22% | 15.05% | 10.63% | DAL +4.47% | POR +0.85% |
| Assist Percentage | 54.19% | 56.94% | 43.09% | 48.43% | DAL +1.30% | POR +2.15% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 3.30 | 1.58 | 1.38 | 1.78 | DAL +1.06 | POR +0.205 |
| Block Percentage | 6.18% | 5.11% | 4.63% | 5.80% | DAL +1.12% | POR +1.25% |
| Fouls pp100s | 21.98 | 20.85 | 29.23 | 20.37 | DAL +3.87 | POR +0.15 |
Here is how the Mavs got their wins. The most frequently used lineups of Dallas consisting of at least 2 bench players outplayed their opponents by a huge margin. 230-196 (+34). Meanwhile, Portlands bench lineups got outplayed by a huge margin. 121-145 (-24). Note that both starting lineups, as mentioned above, couldn't outscore the opponent. Dallas starting unit was 103-106, Portlands 168-168. So it really came down to these alternate lineups. Dallas virtually leads every category despite Field Goals Attempted. But that's due to the fact that Dallas shot Free Throws at an overwhelming rate.
Take what you want from it but it's pretty clear that the starting unit of Dallas won't decide games anytime soon. Looks like Stevenson got the teammates trust right now and because of Roddy's performance and the matchup it's highly unlikely that he will return into the starting unit in the series against the Lakers. So the team will have to hold their ground defensively until the offensive firepower subs in from the bench.
Some interesting side notes to statistically wrap the series up:
- In the possessions without LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland posted an EffDiff of +47.85 (DefEff: 62.56). Dallas shot only 21.15% and was outscored 32-60.
- In the possessions without Gerald Wallace, Portland posted an EffDiff of -23.66 (DefEff: 125.87) and got outscored 108-133.
- With Brendan Haywood on the floor, Dallas posted a team-high +13.21 EffDiff (outscored Portland 231-205) and attempted a series-high 34.56 Free Throws pp100 but hit only 69.12% of them.
- With DeShawn Stevenson on the floor, Dallas posted a team-low in both Offensive (91.47) and Defensive (99.42) Efficiency, attempted a series-low 20.68 Free Throws pp100 and hit only 57.69% of them
- Dirk Nowitzki's impact while on the floor: +26.83 EffDiff; +9.39 FG%; +19.53 3FG%
- Dallas Assist/Turnover-Ratio was only 1.16 with Jose Barea on the floor
- Shawn Marion raised Dallas Offensive Rebound Rate by 16.64% (33.96% with him)
- Brendan Haywood's defensive impact: -3.47 DefEff; -4.64 oFG%; -5.94 o3FG%
- Wesley Matthew's presence raised Portland's 3FG% by 10.75%. Brandon Roy decreased it by 18.08%
- With Jason Terry on the floor Dallas posted a team-high Offensive Efficiency of 120.43


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