Statistical Recap: Dallas vs. Portland

In my Statistical Roundup at the start of the series I calculated which team should hold what advantage throughout the series. Here's a look at the series numbers compared to the prediction. "Advantage" now is the actual one and "Prediction" the values of the Roundup.

DAL POR Advantage Prediction
Efficiencies 112.51 106.28 DAL +6.23
DAL +1.45
Scoring Margin (Points Scored)
560
529
DAL +5.17
DAL +2.70
Points per Game
93.3 88.2
DAL +5.10
DAL +1.35
Points in the Paint per Game
37.0 40.0 POR +3.0
POR +2.65
Fastbreak Points per Game
8.2 12.2 POR +4.0
DAL +1.05
Field Goals Attempted pp100 88.80 88.20 DAL +0.60 POR +3.9
Field Goals Made pp100 40.38 39.98 DAL +0.40 DAL +0.15
Field Goal Percentage 45.48% 45.33% DAL +0.15% DAL +2.22%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 24.31 20.09 DAL +4.22 DAL +1.5
3-Field Goals Made pp100 9.24 6.03 DAL +3.21 DAL +1.0
3-Field Goal Percentage 38.02% 30.00% DAL +8.02% DAL +2.22%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 29.13 25.92 DAL +3.21 DAL +0.4
Free Throws Made pp100 22.50 20.29 DAL +2.21 DAL +0.2
Free Throw Percentage 77.24% 78.29% POR +1.05% POR +0.51%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 50.68% 48.75% DAL +1.93% DAL +2.97%
True Shooting Percentage 55.36% 53.35% DAL +2.01% DAL +2.79%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 25.34% 23.01% DAL +2.33% DAL +1.15%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 75.56% 71.55% DAL +4.01% POR +1.25%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 28.45% 24.44% DAL +4.01% POR +1.25%
Steals pp100 6.23 6.83 POR +0.60 POR +1.1
Turnover Percentage 14.47% 13.86% POR +0.61% POR +1.71%
Assist Percentage 56.72% 51.26% DAL +5.46% DAL +1.32%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.58 1.48 DAL +0.10 POR +0.105
Block Percentage 4.98% 7.06% POR +2.08% DAL +0.94%
Fouls pp100
23.51 25.11 DAL +1.60 DAL +2.5

the Mavericks could hold their advantages in the overall shooting categories with a huge edge in 3-point territory while Portland remained the team that took better care of the ball. As expected, Portland scored more in the paint but also held the advantage in Fastbreak Points. Dallas was looking to push a lot in the regular season but figured that against a Portland team a slow pace was the better option. In terms of rebounding I stated in the Roundup that the team which will keep the advantage in their superior area (DAL: Defensive Rebounding; POR: Offensive Rebounding) while improving in the other would win the rebounding battle. Dallas did just that. They held their ground against one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the regular season and were able to improve on the offensive glass themselves.
In the West Dallas still owns the best Efficiency Difference in the playoffs and now also the best Offensive Efficiency among all playoff teams. That's quite impressive. Remember that the Hornets were supposed to be cannon fodder and compared to the Lakers Dallas posted better Efficiency numbers in both categories against a much tougher opponent.

Again we'll move on by comparing the starting units. Note that this time I actually did use the real starting lineup for Dallas. Not the one with Terry.

DAL POR Lineups
POR DAL Lineups
Advantage Prediction
Efficiencies 95.80 98.59
103.05 103.05 POR +1.39 DAL +4.23
Field Goals Attempted pp100 88.36 91.15 88.33 89.56 POR +0.78 POR +4.2
Field Goals Made pp100 37.20 40.92 39.87 40.48 POR +1.56 DAL +2.2
Field Goal Percentage 42.11% 44.90% 45.14% 48.97% DAL +0.52% DAL +4.48%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 22.32 9.30 13.49 18.40 DAL +8.97 POR +2.65
3-Field Goals Made pp100 9.30 4.65 6.13 6.75 DAL +2.64 POR +0.45
3-Field Goal Percentage 41.67% 50.00% 45.45% 36.67% POR 8.56% DAL +2.00%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 17.67 16.74 21.47 23.92 DAL +1.69 POR +0.1
Free Throws Made pp100 12.09 12.09 17.18 15.34 POR +0.92 DAL +0.4
Free Throw Percentage 68.42% 72.22% 80.00% 64.10% POR +9.85% POR +0.33%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 47.37% 47.45% 48.61% 48.97% DAL +0.14% DAL +4.73%
True Shooting Percentage 49.83% 50.04% 52.70% 51.48% POR +0.72% DAL +4.55%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 13.68% 13.27% 19.44% 17.12% POR +0.95% DAL +2.55%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 72.22% 75.00% 79.52% 76.32% POR +2.99% DAL +3.40%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 25.00% 27.78% 23.68% 20.48% POR +2.99% DAL +3.40%
Steals pp100 5.58 8.37 6.75 6.13 POR +1.71 POR +3.3
Turnover Percentage 19.53% 15.81% 14.72% 12.27% POR +3.09% POR +3.87%
Assist Percentage 60.00% 52.27% 55.38% 57.58% DAL +4.97% POR +0.30%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.14 1.35 1.50 1.90 POR +0.09 POR +0.455
Block Percentage 7.37% 7.14% 6.94% 4.79% POR +0.96% DAL +1.69%
Fouls pp100s 26.97 24.18 25.15 23.92 DAL +0.78 POR +1.05


Both units couldn't provide an edge for either team. For Dallas, the starting unit remains a problem. It has a negative Efficiency Differential, has been outscored and outrebounded by Portland and posted an atrocious Assist/Turnover-Ratio of 1.14. That's not a good sign going forward. The team has been haunted by slow starts this season and while DeShawn Stevenson provides a defensive spark early in the ballgame he isn't really the type of guy you'll need to get your offense going. Replace Stevenson with Jason Terry and the team jumps to an Efficiency Differential of 44.25 while shooting 57.63%. The Defensive Efficiency remains at a respectable 105.94. That speaks volumes.

At last the benches. Again lineups qualify that consist of at least two bench players and are in the Top5 of all bench lineups in terms of possessions played.

DAL POR Lineups
POR DAL Lineups
Advantage
Prediction
Efficiencies 129.63 110.46 107.14 128.14 DAL +20.09 DAL +1.31
Field Goals Attempted pp100 92.43 89.04 93.86 81.45 POR 4.51 POR +1.55
Field Goals Made pp100 47.34 40.58 41.62 40.72 DAL +2.93 DAL +0.45
Field Goal Percentage 51.22% 45.69% 44.34% 50.39% DAL +5.79% DAL +1.35%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 29.30 23.11 28.34 26.55 DAL +2.20 DAL +2.55
3-Field Goals Made pp100 12.40 7.89 7.97 10.62 DAL +3.58 +/- 0
3-Field Goal Percentage 44.46% 35.12% 27.00% 40.96% DAL +11.65% POR +4.80%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 27.61 27.61 20.37 44.28 DAL +11.95 DAL +0.2
Free Throws Made pp100 22.54 21.41 15.95 36.31 DAL +10.75 DAL +0.35
Free Throw Percentage 83.36% 77.74% 70.88% 83.34% DAL +9.04% POR +0.80%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 58.85% 50.07% 48.48% 56.63% DAL +8.47% DAL +1.50%
True Shooting Percentage 62.57% 54.78% 51.92% 64.07% DAL +9.97% DAL +1.50%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 25.45% 23.98% 17.00% 46.70% DAL +15.59% DAL +0.65%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 71.00% 72.62% 68.67% 75.45% DAL +2.58% POR +1.35%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 27.38% 29.00% 24.55% 31.33% DAL +2.58% POR +1.35%
Steals pp100 7.89 5.07 6.20 4.43 DAL +0.53 POR +1.85
Turnover Percentage 10.70% 15.22% 15.05% 10.63% DAL +4.47% POR +0.85%
Assist Percentage 54.19% 56.94% 43.09% 48.43% DAL +1.30% POR +2.15%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 3.30 1.58 1.38 1.78 DAL +1.06 POR +0.205
Block Percentage 6.18% 5.11% 4.63% 5.80% DAL +1.12% POR +1.25%
Fouls pp100s 21.98 20.85 29.23 20.37 DAL +3.87 POR +0.15


Here is how the Mavs got their wins. The most frequently used lineups of Dallas consisting of at least 2 bench players outplayed their opponents by a huge margin. 230-196 (+34). Meanwhile, Portlands bench lineups got outplayed by a huge margin. 121-145 (-24). Note that both starting lineups, as mentioned above, couldn't outscore the opponent. Dallas starting unit was 103-106, Portlands 168-168. So it really came down to these alternate lineups. Dallas virtually leads every category despite Field Goals Attempted. But that's due to the fact that Dallas shot Free Throws at an overwhelming rate.

Take what you want from it but it's pretty clear that the starting unit of Dallas won't decide games anytime soon. Looks like Stevenson got the teammates trust right now and because of Roddy's performance and the matchup it's highly unlikely that he will return into the starting unit in the series against the Lakers. So the team will have to hold their ground defensively until the offensive firepower subs in from the bench.

 

Some interesting side notes to statistically wrap the series up:

  • In the possessions without LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland posted an EffDiff of +47.85 (DefEff: 62.56). Dallas shot only 21.15% and was outscored 32-60.
  • In the possessions without Gerald Wallace, Portland posted an EffDiff of -23.66 (DefEff: 125.87) and got outscored 108-133.
  • With Brendan Haywood on the floor, Dallas posted a team-high +13.21 EffDiff (outscored Portland 231-205) and attempted a series-high 34.56 Free Throws pp100 but hit only 69.12% of them.
  • With DeShawn Stevenson on the floor, Dallas posted a team-low in both Offensive (91.47) and Defensive (99.42) Efficiency, attempted a series-low 20.68 Free Throws pp100 and hit only 57.69% of them
  • Dirk Nowitzki's impact while on the floor: +26.83 EffDiff; +9.39 FG%; +19.53 3FG%
  • Dallas Assist/Turnover-Ratio was only 1.16 with Jose Barea on the floor
  • Shawn Marion raised Dallas Offensive Rebound Rate by 16.64% (33.96% with him)
  • Brendan Haywood's defensive impact: -3.47 DefEff; -4.64 oFG%; -5.94 o3FG%
  • Wesley Matthew's presence raised Portland's 3FG% by 10.75%. Brandon Roy decreased it by 18.08%
  • With Jason Terry on the floor Dallas posted a team-high Offensive Efficiency of 120.43
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