As always here's the Statistical Roundup for the upcoming NBA Finals. For the Finals I weighted the playoff numbers twice as much as the regular season numbers.
| Overall | DAL | Opp | MIA | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 111.97 | 105.57 | 109.47 | 102.64 | +0.21 |
| Points in the Paint pp100 | 36.40 | 41.90 | 37.50 | 38.10 | +2.45 |
| Fastbreak Points pp100 | 13.80 | 13.60 | 13.60 | 13.10 | +0.15 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 86.54 | 88.66 | 83.97 | 89.35 | +1.63 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 40.58 | 39.71 | 38.92 | 38.29 | +0.12 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 46.89% | 44.79% | 46.35% | 42.86% | +0.69% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 24.91 | 19.66 | 19.28 | 20.51 | +3.24 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 9.39 | 5.95 | 6.64 | 7.53 | +2.17 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 37.63% | 30.25% | 34.36% | 36.78% | +4.90% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 26.79 | 26.12 | 31.75 | 24.75 | +3.17 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 21.43 | 20.21 | 25.00 | 18.54 | +2.62 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 79.85% | 77.22% | 78.66% | 74.96% | +0.53% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 52.32% | 48.14% | 50.30% | 47.07% | +0.48% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 56.94% | 52.71% | 55.89% | 51.21% | +0.23% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 24.76% | 22.80% | 29.77% | 20.77% | +3.52% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 73.07% | 75.32% | 75.45% | 74.25% | +1.72% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 24.69% | 26.94% | 25.75% | 24.56% | +1.72% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.77 | 8.13 | 7.64 | 7.80 | +0.10 |
| Turnover Percentage | 14.90% | 15.00% | 15.27% | 14.66% | +0.35% |
| Assist Percentage | 61.69% | 53.58% | 50.78% | 57.41% | +7.37% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.68 | 1.42 | 1.30 | 1.50 | +0.23 |
| Block Percentage | 5.46% | 5.74% | 7.90% | 4.44% | +1.88% |
| Fouls pp100 | 22.08 | 23.38 | 21.73 | 24.35 | +0.66 |
The Miami Heat own the overall slim advantage. I's the first time in this playoffs that the Dallas Mavericks are not superior in most of the shooting categories as the Heat take overall Field Goal Percentage and True Shooting Percentage in this one. They also rebound the ball better and win the free-throw game while the Mavs own a heavy advantage from beyond the arc and in the ball-handling categories.
| Starting Units | DAL | Opp | MIA | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 113.76 | 95.88 | 111.47 | 93.94 | +0.18 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 83.59 | 88.39 | 79.70 | 92.30 | +3.90 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 39.11 | 35.69 | 37.89 | 35.60 | +0.57 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 46.98% | 40.39% | 47.53% | 38.64% | +1.16% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 21.52 | 19.92 | 17.26 | 20.54 | +2.44 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 8.50 | 5.74 | 5.66 | 5.93 | +1.52 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 39.77% | 31.46% | 32.46% | 28.68% | +2.26% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 31.48 | 24.35 | 38.98 | 22.09 | +4.88 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 27.04 | 18.75 | 30.03 | 16.80 | +2.47 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 83.72% | 77.16% | 76.20% | 76.98% | +3.67% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 52.07% | 43.65% | 51.08% | 41.84% | +0.41% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 58.22% | 48.40% | 57.45% | 46.08% | +0.77% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 33.70% | 21.24% | 38.14% | 18.51% | +3.58% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 75.64% | 75.23% | 71.44% | 75.05% | +2.01% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 24.77% | 24.36% | 24.95% | 28.56% | +2.01% |
| Steals pp100 | 8.00 | 9.23 | 9.77 | 8.03 | +1.48 |
| Turnover Percentage | 16.28% | 14.83% | 15.24% | 16.98% | +1.59% |
| Assist Percentage | 63.65% | 54.34% | 47.85% | 51.87% | +6.66% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.55 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.11 | +/-0.00 |
| Block Percentage | 5.72% | 5.68% | 10.56% | 4.25% | +3.13% |
| Fouls pp100 | 22.32 | 26.61 | 20.45 | 26.11 | +0.68 |
Both starting units (which also includes the "6th"-man unit) play terrific defense and offense and the Mavericks take the advantage here. Again Miami is projected to outshoot them and to get to the line more frequently, but the Mavericks are able to hold their ground under the baskets and are moving the ball better.
| Bench Units | DAL | Opp | MIA | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 122.61 | 109.29 | 111.56 | 103.71 | +2.73 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 87.73 | 89.37 | 83.73 | 85.28 | +0.05 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 45.69 | 41.22 | 38.78 | 35.43 | +0.56 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 52.27% | 46.12% | 46.19% | 41.78% | +0.87% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 24.57 | 18.83 | 19.84 | 23.71 | +4.80 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 10.64 | 5.79 | 5.41 | 9.66 | +4.56 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 42.93% | 30.19% | 24.14% | 38.25% | +13.43% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 26.20 | 26.97 | 35.43 | 29.76 | +3.22 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 20.58 | 21.07 | 28.60 | 23.19 | +2.95 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 77.59% | 77.83% | 80.20% | 78.25% | +1.09% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 58.32% | 49.34% | 49.38% | 47.20% | +3.40% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 61.76% | 53.94% | 56.06% | 52.81% | +2.29% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 23.94% | 23.83% | 34.60% | 30.27% | +2.11% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 70.06% | 73.97% | 76.39% | 72.67% | +3.82% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 26.03% | 29.94% | 27.33% | 23.61% | +3.82% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.48 | 7.10 | 8.24 | 8.25 | +0.19 |
| Turnover Percentage | 13.10% | 15.51% | 15.97% | 15.46% | +1.46% |
| Assist Percentage | 62.26% | 55.69% | 42.09% | 65.88% | +15.18% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 2.31 | 1.60 | 1.14 | 2.21 | +0.89 |
| Block Percentage | 6.02% | 5.11% | 8.72% | 5.34% | +1.23% |
| Fouls pp100 | 22.38 | 24.46 | 27.57 | 26.41 | +1.62 |
The Mavericks bench has been incredible all postseason long. And they are projected to clearly outplay the Heats bench. These numbers surely don't reflect the fact that both Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller seemed to get back on track lately. But to be honest: The Big5 played 32 Possessions together all season long. I personally don't trust that sample size. Mavericks get their advantage in the shooting categories back here. They are projected to shoot +13.43% from three point territory and are +15.18% in sharing the ball. That's quite a bit. Rebounding numbers lean towards the Heat and they seem to remain the team that will shoot more free throws regardless the lineup.
There are 21 Comments. Load Now.
Shortcuts to mastering the comment thread. Use wisely.
C - Next Comment
X - Mark as Read
R - Reply
Z - Mark Read & Next
Shift + C - Previous
Shift + A - Mark All Read
Comment Settings
Live comment alert: Hide it!
Comments for this post are closed.