NBA Finals: Heat vs. Mavericks Statistical Roundup

As always here's the Statistical Roundup for the upcoming NBA Finals. For the Finals I weighted the playoff numbers twice as much as the regular season numbers.

Overall DAL Opp MIA Opp Advantage
Efficiencies 111.97 105.57 109.47 102.64 +0.21
Points in the Paint pp100 36.40 41.90 37.50 38.10 +2.45
Fastbreak Points pp100 13.80 13.60 13.60 13.10 +0.15
Field Goals Attempted pp100 86.54 88.66 83.97 89.35 +1.63
Field Goals Made pp100 40.58 39.71 38.92 38.29 +0.12
Field Goal Percentage 46.89% 44.79% 46.35% 42.86% +0.69%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 24.91 19.66 19.28 20.51 +3.24
3-Field Goals Made pp100 9.39 5.95 6.64 7.53 +2.17
3-Field Goal Percentage 37.63% 30.25% 34.36% 36.78% +4.90%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 26.79 26.12 31.75 24.75 +3.17
Free Throws Made pp100 21.43 20.21 25.00 18.54 +2.62
Free Throw Percentage 79.85% 77.22% 78.66% 74.96% +0.53%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 52.32% 48.14% 50.30% 47.07% +0.48%
True Shooting Percentage 56.94% 52.71% 55.89% 51.21% +0.23%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 24.76% 22.80% 29.77% 20.77% +3.52%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 73.07% 75.32% 75.45% 74.25% +1.72%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 24.69% 26.94% 25.75% 24.56% +1.72%
Steals pp100 7.77 8.13 7.64 7.80 +0.10
Turnover Percentage 14.90% 15.00% 15.27% 14.66% +0.35%
Assist Percentage 61.69% 53.58% 50.78% 57.41% +7.37%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.68 1.42 1.30 1.50 +0.23
Block Percentage 5.46% 5.74% 7.90% 4.44% +1.88%
Fouls pp100 22.08 23.38 21.73 24.35 +0.66

The Miami Heat own the overall slim advantage. I's the first time in this playoffs that the Dallas Mavericks are not superior in most of the shooting categories as the Heat take overall Field Goal Percentage and True Shooting Percentage in this one. They also rebound the ball better and win the free-throw game while the Mavs own a heavy advantage from beyond the arc and in the ball-handling categories.

Starting Units
DAL Opp MIA Opp Advantage
Efficiencies 113.76 95.88 111.47 93.94 +0.18
Field Goals Attempted pp100 83.59 88.39 79.70 92.30 +3.90
Field Goals Made pp100 39.11 35.69 37.89 35.60 +0.57
Field Goal Percentage 46.98% 40.39% 47.53% 38.64% +1.16%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 21.52 19.92 17.26 20.54 +2.44
3-Field Goals Made pp100 8.50 5.74 5.66 5.93 +1.52
3-Field Goal Percentage 39.77% 31.46% 32.46% 28.68% +2.26%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 31.48 24.35 38.98 22.09 +4.88
Free Throws Made pp100 27.04 18.75 30.03 16.80 +2.47
Free Throw Percentage 83.72% 77.16% 76.20% 76.98% +3.67%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 52.07% 43.65% 51.08% 41.84% +0.41%
True Shooting Percentage 58.22% 48.40% 57.45% 46.08% +0.77%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 33.70% 21.24% 38.14% 18.51% +3.58%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 75.64% 75.23% 71.44% 75.05% +2.01%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 24.77% 24.36% 24.95% 28.56% +2.01%
Steals pp100 8.00 9.23 9.77 8.03 +1.48
Turnover Percentage 16.28% 14.83% 15.24% 16.98% +1.59%
Assist Percentage 63.65% 54.34% 47.85% 51.87% +6.66%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.55 1.33 1.34 1.11 +/-0.00
Block Percentage 5.72% 5.68% 10.56% 4.25% +3.13%
Fouls pp100 22.32 26.61 20.45 26.11 +0.68


Both starting units (which also includes the "6th"-man unit) play terrific defense and offense and the Mavericks take the advantage here. Again Miami is projected to outshoot them and to get to the line more frequently, but the Mavericks are able to hold their ground under the baskets and are moving the ball better.

Bench Units
DAL Opp MIA Opp Advantage
Efficiencies 122.61 109.29 111.56 103.71 +2.73
Field Goals Attempted pp100 87.73 89.37 83.73 85.28 +0.05
Field Goals Made pp100 45.69 41.22 38.78 35.43 +0.56
Field Goal Percentage 52.27% 46.12% 46.19% 41.78% +0.87%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 24.57 18.83 19.84 23.71 +4.80
3-Field Goals Made pp100 10.64 5.79 5.41 9.66 +4.56
3-Field Goal Percentage 42.93% 30.19% 24.14% 38.25% +13.43%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 26.20 26.97 35.43 29.76 +3.22
Free Throws Made pp100 20.58 21.07 28.60 23.19 +2.95
Free Throw Percentage 77.59% 77.83% 80.20% 78.25% +1.09%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 58.32% 49.34% 49.38% 47.20% +3.40%
True Shooting Percentage 61.76% 53.94% 56.06% 52.81% +2.29%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 23.94% 23.83% 34.60% 30.27% +2.11%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 70.06% 73.97% 76.39% 72.67% +3.82%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 26.03% 29.94% 27.33% 23.61% +3.82%
Steals pp100 7.48 7.10 8.24 8.25 +0.19
Turnover Percentage 13.10% 15.51% 15.97% 15.46% +1.46%
Assist Percentage 62.26% 55.69% 42.09% 65.88% +15.18%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 2.31 1.60 1.14 2.21 +0.89
Block Percentage 6.02% 5.11% 8.72% 5.34% +1.23%
Fouls pp100 22.38 24.46 27.57 26.41 +1.62


The Mavericks bench has been incredible all postseason long. And they are projected to clearly outplay the Heats bench. These numbers surely don't reflect the fact that both Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller seemed to get back on track lately. But to be honest: The Big5 played 32 Possessions together all season long. I personally don't trust that sample size. Mavericks get their advantage in the shooting categories back here. They are projected to shoot +13.43% from three point territory and are +15.18% in sharing the ball. That's quite a bit. Rebounding numbers lean towards the Heat and they seem to remain the team that will shoot more free throws regardless the lineup.

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