Statistical Roundup: Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Lots of numbers these days. After I did the Statistical Recap of the series against the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday, here are the numbers for the series against the Los Angeles Lakers. A few comments about the procedure first because I changed it slightly compared to the Statistical Roundup of the first round:
The "Starting Lineups" are actually the two most important lineups for both teams. There is still an issue with the sample size of the Mavericks starting unit. They played 207 possessions now. The Lakers starting unit has 1589. Also there is one important lineup for both teams that should be somehow included in the numbers: The 6th-man lineups consisting of Jason Terry for DeShawn Stevenson and Lamar Odom for Andrew Bynum. Both are not bench lineups with my definition because they consist of only one bench player and are also not the starting lineups. So I decided two include them into the "Starting Lineup" comparison.

Here we go:

Overall DAL Opp LAL Opp Advantage
Efficiencies 109.85 105.12 111.13 104.34 1.03
Points in the Paint pp100 40.54 46.12 48.80 43.65 5.36
Points off Turnovers pp100 16.73 16.49 16.21 16.62 0.32
Fastbreak Points pp100
15.75 15.20 12.46 14.77 1.43
Field Goals Attempted pp100 86.41 88.77 89.95 88.90 0.46
Field Goals Made pp100 40.91 39.97 41.64 40.47 0.34
Field Goal Percentage 47.35% 45.03% 46.29% 43.80% 0.08%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 23.63 19.77 19.69 22.75 3.02
3-Field Goals Made pp100 8.65 6.73 6.96 7.98 1.13
3-Field Goal Percentage 36.58% 34.05% 35.32% 33.41% 0.31%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 24.96 24.51 26.76 23.61 2.03
Free Throws Made pp100 19.38 18.44 20.89 18.19 1.48
Free Throw Percentage 77.64% 75.24% 78.07% 76.33% 0.33%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 52.35% 48.82% 50.16% 47.79% 0.58%
True Shooting Percentage 56.40% 52.80% 54.62% 51.56% 0.27%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 22.43% 20.78% 23.22% 18.60% 1.49%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 74.89% 75.60% 72.67% 70.62% 1.38%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 24.40% 25.11% 29.38% 27.33% 1.38%
Steals pp100 7.36 8.22 7.95 7.60 0.49
Turnover Percentage 15.23% 14.80% 14.36% 15.07% 0.49%
Assist Percentage 63.24% 56.06% 57.45% 60.78% 5.26%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.70 1.51 1.67 1.63 0.08
Block Percentage 5.42% 4.72% 6.34% 5.36% 0.14%
Fouls pp100 21.16 22.18 20.99 22.07 0.49

As expected the overall comparison slightly favors the Lakers. They own the edge in rebounding, getting to the line and turnovers while the Mavericks take the overall shooting categories and ball handling in general because of the great advantage in the ball sharing category (Assists). Also L.A. should have a huge advantage in Points-in-the-Paint with their big front line.

Starting Lineup
DAL Opp LAL Opp Advantage
Efficiencies 120.87 99.79 114.75 102.51 4.42
Field Goals Attempted pp100 83.06 90.03 92.11 92.12 3.48
Field Goals Made pp100 41.22 36.73 44.27 40.86 0.54
Field Goal Percentage 49.67% 40.79% 48.06% 44.35% 2.59%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 19.84 22 16.19 20.05 0.85
3-Field Goals Made pp100 8.37 6.97 6.19 6.73 0.97
3-Field Goal Percentage 42.21% 31.00% 38.38% 33.37% 3.10%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 35.02 25.88 25.55 18.36 0.98
Free Throws Made pp100 30.06 19.37 20.03 14.07 2.37
Free Throw Percentage 83.85% 74.31% 78.23% 76.62% 3.96%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 54.70% 44.69% 51.37% 48.01% 3.32%
True Shooting Percentage 61.27% 49.21% 51.42% 51.15% 5.90%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 36.87% 21.63% 21.74% 15.28% 4.39%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 74.26% 70.75% 73.28% 69.15% 0.31%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 29.26% 25.74% 30.85% 26.72% 0.31%
Steals pp100 7.29 8.83 8.51 7.31 1.37
Turnover Percentage 16.12% 14.10% 13.64% 15.01% 1.70%
Assist Percentage 64.66% 56.08% 55.80% 62.75% 7.77%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.66 1.46 1.81 1.71 0.05
Block Percentage 5.18% 4.46% 6.47% 5.33% 0.21%
Fouls pp100 21.7 27.74 18.94 24.04 0.47


That surprised me. Have been talking a lot about the Mavericks starting unit which owned a negative Efficiency Differential throughout the first round. Note that both the starting unit and the 6th-man unit are included here and that these are the combined numbers from the regular season and the playoffs because I wasn't comfortable using the small sample size of the first round.
Overall advantage goes to the Mavericks. They once again take the shooting categories but also own the advantages in all ball handling and free throw categories. Lakers still are projected to have the advantage in rebounding. I originally thought that this should go L.A.'s way. Instead the Mavericks are projected to take a 4.42 advantage in Efficiency Differential. I am really intrigued how that will play out.

Top5 Bench Lineups
DAL Opp LAL Opp Advantage
Efficiencies 116.44 107.82 108.68 102.80 1.37
Field Goals Attempted pp100 86.77 87.66 89.39 90.84 0.28
Field Goals Made pp100 44.67 40.68 39.85 37.95 1.05
Field Goal Percentage 51.45% 46.41% 44.71% 41.91% 1.12%
3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 20.87 18.82 23.82 23.28 0.76
3-Field Goals Made pp100 8.44 6.66 7.88 8.42 1.16
3-Field Goal Percentage 40.33% 35.48% 33.03% 36.74% 4.27%
Free Throws Attempted pp100 25.05 26.73 26.99 23.64 2.52
Free Throws Made pp100 18.65 19.81 21.10 18.48 1.89
Free Throw Percentage 73.56% 73.70% 78.33% 76.71% 0.88%
Effective Field Goal Percentage 56.31% 46.41% 49.15% 46.58% 3.66%
True Shooting Percentage 59.53% 50.21% 53.74% 50.82% 3.20%
Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted 21.91% 21.91% 23.75% 20.60% 1.58%
Defensive Rebounding Percentage 72.69% 74.61% 72.00% 71.68% 1.13%
Offensive Rebounding Percentage 25.39% 27.31% 28.32% 28.00% 1.13%
Steals pp100 7.10 8.17 7.07 8.60 0.23
Turnover Percentage 14.48% 15.53% 15.22% 15.13% 0.57%
Assist Percentage 60.42% 59.02% 61.18% 61.56% 0.89%
Assist/Turnover-Ratio 1.93 1.56 1.65 1.62 0.17
Block Percentage 5.89% 5.25% 6.18% 5.47% 0.04%
Fouls pp100 22.20 24.16 24.45 21.92 2.25


This was about to be expected. Bench play goes the Mavs way. The big picture doesn't change. Rebounding and creating foul shots is Lakers territory, shooting and ball handling the Mavericks.

Overall I can't really believe this is the blueprint of how the series will play out. I think we'll still struggle with our starting unit and right now Odom should have the advantage in the 6th-man battle. Both Chandler and Terry stated to be highly motivated though and they will have to step up big time. The Lakers bench really doesn't concern me that much. I think it could be an easier series for Barea on the offensive end and you should also closely watch Roddy as the Lakers had trouble with speedy guards all season long. The odds are favoring the Lakers but some some statisticians agree that the Mavs have a shot in the series. BBRef projects a 50:50 series based on their Post-Deadline ratings with the only advantage for the Lakers being home court. So bring it on!

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