We all know Rodrigue Beaubois had a subpar season. The Free-Roddy-movement has partly changed into a Free-Corey-movement. We thought he would be a major asset in winning a championship. Well ... the championship came to Dallas but without major contributions from Roddy. That's why the Mavs (alongside the fact that Caron Butler should be back) can be very confident going into the next season ... if there is one. Because they don't even need to upgrade their roster to improve.
To get a better idea of where Roddy might be heading we can compare his numbers with similar players. So I compared him with all guards since the 80s that have been drafted outside the Top14 (todays lottery), have played 400 minutes during their rookie season and were 21 years or younger heading into the NBA. First their Rookie seasons:
|Rodrigue Beaubois (09/10)
Chris Carr (95/96)
Rob Williams (82/83)
Marcus Williams (06/07)
|Randy Livingston (96/97)||0.2556||8.3||43.7||40.9||48.7||45.6||0.012|
|Kenny Satterfield (01/02)||0.3389||11.5||36.7||25.9||43.1||38.4||-0.014|
|Khalid El-Amin (00/01)||0.3361||12.2||37.0||33.3||45.8||41.5||0.030|
|Ramon Sessions (07/08)||0.3056||16.2||43.6||42.9||50.7||44.9||0.077|
|Kevin Martin (04/05)||0.2889||8.7||38.5||20.0||46.4||40.6||0.016|
|Zoran Planinic (03/04)||0.3222||10.0||41.1||28.1||49.2||33.6||0.068|
|Sasha Vujacic (04/05)||0.2500||8.9||28.2||27.0||40.3||35.5
|Dion Glover (99/00)||0.4361||12.4||48.6||26.7||48.3||42.1||0.029|
* Points per Minute
First of all that's some pretty good company right there. For some reason this group of guards (very young, non-lottery picks, given a chance in their first season) is more or less successful throughout. Really only 8 of them disappeared rather quickly after their rookie season. That's amazing because of all players that have been drafted outside the Top14 only 35.22% manage to put together an NBA career of 5 years or more. From all Guards (drafted outside the Top14) that have played at least 400 minutes during their first season and were older than 21, 48.25% manage to stay in the NBA for 5+ years. Assuming that Sessions, Stuckey and Cook will stay in the league next year, this group of young guards already has 21 players (63.36%) with an experience of 5+ years and 4 more still have the chance to do so. There's even the slight possibility that this group will match the numbers for "Lottery-Guards" which manage to stay in the NBA for 5+ years 75.21% of the time.
I was additionally surprised that it's only 33 players. Since the 80s a total of 743 guards entered the league and 618 were drafted higher than 14 (or undrafted). The main variable that scales it down so much is age. Only 63 (10.19%) of them were 21 years or younger and only these 33 went on playing at least 400 minutes during their rookie season.
Roddy leads the pack in every category despite 3-Point-Shooting (4th). I think that's what we all knew. He had a stellar rookie campaign. After his subpar 2nd year let's see how the numbers have developed in comparison to these group of similar players after their 2nd year.
Roddy still leads in Points per Minute and FG%, 3rd in eFG% and TS%. Only real drop-off came in 3-Point shooting (9th) and the WS48-Metric (10th). He shot 49.5% on his 2-Point attempts but took too many three to end up with a decent percentage. You should feel pretty good given the success of this group and Roddy's ranking among them. So he should be still considered a promising prospect and (hopefully) without health issues and increased minutes the Mavericks can expect a lot out of him in the years ahead.