After Roddy's 2nd Season, Where Does He Rank Among Similar Guards?

We all know Rodrigue Beaubois had a subpar season. The Free-Roddy-movement has partly changed into a Free-Corey-movement.  We thought he would be a major asset in winning a championship. Well ... the championship came to Dallas but without major contributions from Roddy. That's why the Mavs (alongside the fact that Caron Butler should be back) can be very confident going into the next season ... if there is one. Because they don't even need to upgrade their roster to improve.

To get a better idea of where Roddy might be heading we can compare his numbers with similar players. So I compared him with all guards since the 80s that have been drafted outside the Top14 (todays lottery), have played 400 minutes during their rookie season and were 21 years or younger heading into the NBA. First their Rookie seasons:

Name PPM* PER FG% 3FG% eFG% TS% WS48
Quentin Richardson (00/01) 0.4528 16.5 44.2 33.1 51.6 49.0 0.106
Gilbert Arenas (01/02)
0.4417 17.0 45.3 34.5 56.2 50.4 0.114
Rajon Rondo (06/07)
0.2750 13.1 41.8 20.7 47.2 42.4 0.064
Tony Parker (01/02)
0.3111 11.7 41.9 32.3 49.7 46.7 0.080
Daniel Gibson (06/07)
0.2806 9.4 42.4 41.9 55.6 53.7 0.098
Delonte West (05/06)
0.3444 12.3 42.6 35.8 52.4 50.3 0.090
Rodney Stuckey (07/08)
0.4028 13.8 40.1 18.8 48.4 40.4 0.090
Nate Robinson (05/06)
0.4333 12.6 40.7 39.7 51.2 45.8 0.046
Rodrigue Beaubois (09/10)
0.5667 18.5 51.8 40.9 61.7 59.4 0.134
Jordan Farmar (06/07)
0.2944 10.8 42.2 32.8 51.5 49.8 0.038
Leandro Barbosa (03/04)
0.3667 12.7 44.7 39.5 55.3 53.5 0.061
Jrue Holiday (09/10)
0.3333 12.3 44.2 39.0 52.6 50.2 0.032
Jeff Teague (09/10)
0.3167 11.0 39.6 21.9 45.9 41.2 0.042
Chris Carr (95/96)
0.4056 10.5 41.5 26.2 49.3 44.0 0.021
Ricky Davis (98/99)
0.3750 12.9 40.5 16.7 46.2 41.0 0.015
Monta Ellis (05/06)
0.3778 11.1 41.5 34.1 48.6 45.9 0.028
Kirk Snyder (04/05)
0.3722 8.6 37.2 35.3 45.6 41.8 -0.012
J.R. Smith (04/05)
0.4194 10.9 39.4 28.8 47.8 44.9 0.006
Mo Williams (03/04)
0.3667 9.4 38.0 25.6 43.3 39.6 0.011
Rob Williams (82/83)
0.3556 10.7 40.8 13.3 47.3 41.0 -0.004
Daequan Cook (07/08) 0.3583 7.9 38.1 33.2 48.0 45.8 -0.013
Sergio Rodriguez (06/07) 0.2861 14.1 42.3 28.2 49.3 47.3 0.050
Marcus Williams (06/07)
0.4056 11.5 39.5 28.2 47.4 43.9 -0.004
Javaris Crittenton (07/08) 0.4083 11.0 42.1 27.0 49.9 44.2 0.004
Randy Livingston (96/97) 0.2556 8.3 43.7 40.9 48.7 45.6 0.012
Kenny Satterfield (01/02) 0.3389 11.5 36.7 25.9 43.1 38.4 -0.014
Eric Bledsoe (10/11) 0.2944 10.8 42.4 27.6 49.9 45.7 0.008
Khalid El-Amin (00/01) 0.3361 12.2 37.0 33.3 45.8 41.5 0.030
Ramon Sessions (07/08) 0.3056 16.2 43.6 42.9 50.7 44.9 0.077
Kevin Martin (04/05) 0.2889 8.7 38.5 20.0 46.4 40.6 0.016
Zoran Planinic (03/04) 0.3222 10.0 41.1 28.1 49.2 33.6 0.068
Sasha Vujacic (04/05) 0.2500 8.9 28.2 27.0 40.3 35.5
0.018
Dion Glover (99/00) 0.4361 12.4 48.6 26.7 48.3 42.1 0.029


* Points per Minute

First of all that's some pretty good company right there. For some reason this group of guards (very young, non-lottery picks, given a chance in their first season) is more or less successful throughout. Really only 8 of them disappeared rather quickly after their rookie season. That's amazing because of all players that have been drafted outside the Top14 only 35.22% manage to put together an NBA career of 5 years or more. From all Guards (drafted outside the Top14) that have played at least 400 minutes during their first season and were older than 21, 48.25% manage to stay in the NBA for 5+ years. Assuming that Sessions, Stuckey and Cook will stay in the league next year, this group of young guards already has 21 players (63.36%) with an experience of 5+ years and 4 more still have the chance to do so. There's even the slight possibility that this group will match the numbers for "Lottery-Guards" which manage to stay in the NBA for 5+ years 75.21% of the time.

I was additionally surprised that it's only 33 players. Since the 80s a total of 743 guards entered the league and 618 were drafted higher than 14 (or undrafted). The main variable that scales it down so much is age. Only 63 (10.19%) of them were 21 years or younger and only these 33 went on playing at least 400 minutes during their rookie season.

Roddy leads the pack in every category despite 3-Point-Shooting (4th). I think that's what we all knew. He had a stellar rookie campaign. After his subpar 2nd year let's see how the numbers have developed in comparison to these group of similar players after their 2nd year.

Name PPM PER FG% 3FG% eFG% TS% WS48
Quentin Richardson 0.4750 16.9 43.7 35.6 52.5 49.7 0.115
Gilbert Arenas 0.4806 17.8 44.2 34.6 55.1 49.1 0.112
Rajon Rondo 0.3139 14.4 45.5 23.5 49.4 46.0 0.107
Tony Parker 0.3833 14.1 44.2 33.0 52.0 48.5 0.107
Daniel Gibson 0.3111 10.5 42.8 42.9 57.4 54.8 0.104
Delonte West 0.3444 13.7 45.6 37.2 54.9 52.6 0.102
Rodney Stuckey 0.4111 14.3 42.0 24.1 49.6 42.8 0.082
Nate Robinson 0.4556 13.9 42.1 39.4 53.2 48.6 0.080
Rodrigue Beaubois 0.5194 15.0 47.0 35.5 55.8 53.6 0.078
Jordan Farmar 0.3694 13.1 44.1 35.0 53.9 52.5 0.074
Leandro Barbosa 0.3861 12.7 46.1 38.1 56.4 54.1 0.071
Jrue Holiday 0.3639 13.9 44.4 37.7 52.6 49.4 0.063
Jeff Teague 0.3444 12.8 41.7 29.7 49.0 44.0 0.062
Chris Carr 0.4056 11.9 43.8 30.7 52.5 47.9 0.059
Ricky Davis 0.3861 14.1 45.4 8.3 50.2 45.6 0.053
Monta Ellis 0.4306 13.1 44.5 30.7 51.6 47.7 0.050
Kirk Snyder 0.3917 11.6 41.3 35.5 49.7 46.1 0.035
J.R. Smith 0.4250 11.8 39.3 32.9 49.6 45.7 0.033
Mo Williams 0.3639 11.7 40.9 29.0 46.8 42.8 0.029
Rob Williams 0.3861 12.0 43.4 22.6 50.0 44.1 0.026
Daequan Cook 0.3667 9.1 37.8 35.9 49.6 47.6 0.021
Sergio Rodriguez 0.2861 11.6 38.8 28.8 45.8 43.4 0.016
Marcus Williams 0.3861 11.2 38.7 33.1 48.7 45.5 0.002
Javaris Crittenton 0.3389 10.7 44.1 20.2 49.3 45.3 0.002
Randy Livingston 0.1889 6.8 34.4 20.5 41.9 35.3 -0.008
Kenny Satterfield 0.3000 8.2 33.4 21.9 38.5 34.9 -0.053
Ramon Sessions 0.3778 16.9 44.0 30.2 51.6 44.9 0.100
Kevin Martin 0.3472 11.7 43.2 28.5 53.4 47.3 0.077
Zoran Planinic 0.3722 11.2 43.0 32.8 51.3 46.9 0.071
Sasha Vujacic 0.2361 8.6 31.4 30.7 44.1 39.8 0.042
Dion Glover 0.4000 12.3 40.3 23.1 47.2 42.7 0.034


Roddy still leads in Points per Minute and FG%, 3rd in eFG% and TS%. Only real drop-off came in 3-Point shooting (9th) and the WS48-Metric (10th). He shot 49.5% on his 2-Point attempts but took too many three to end up with a decent percentage. You should feel pretty good given the success of this group and Roddy's ranking among them. So he should be still considered a promising prospect and (hopefully) without health issues and increased minutes the Mavericks can expect a lot out of him in the years ahead.

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