After Roddy's 2nd Season, Where Does He Rank Among Similar Guards?

by j0Shi on Jun 19, 2011 1:00 PM CDT in Opinion/Analysis

We all know Rodrigue Beaubois had a subpar season. The Free-Roddy-movement has partly changed into a Free-Corey-movement. We thought he would be a major asset in winning a championship. Well ... the championship came to Dallas but without major contributions from Roddy. That's why the Mavs (alongside the fact that Caron Butler should be back) can be very confident going into the next season ... if there is one. Because they don't even need to upgrade their roster to improve.

To get a better idea of where Roddy might be heading we can compare his numbers with similar players. So I compared him with all guards since the 80s that have been drafted outside the Top14 (todays lottery), have played 400 minutes during their rookie season and were 21 years or younger heading into the NBA. First their Rookie seasons:

Name	PPM*	PER	FG%	3FG%	eFG%	TS%	WS48
Quentin Richardson (00/01)	0.4528	16.5	44.2	33.1	51.6	49.0	0.106
Gilbert Arenas (01/02)	0.4417	17.0	45.3	34.5	56.2	50.4	0.114
Rajon Rondo (06/07)	0.2750	13.1	41.8	20.7	47.2	42.4	0.064
Tony Parker (01/02)	0.3111	11.7	41.9	32.3	49.7	46.7	0.080
Daniel Gibson (06/07)	0.2806	9.4	42.4	41.9	55.6	53.7	0.098
Delonte West (05/06)	0.3444	12.3	42.6	35.8	52.4	50.3	0.090
Rodney Stuckey (07/08)	0.4028	13.8	40.1	18.8	48.4	40.4	0.090
Nate Robinson (05/06)	0.4333	12.6	40.7	39.7	51.2	45.8	0.046
Rodrigue Beaubois (09/10)	0.5667	18.5	51.8	40.9	61.7	59.4	0.134
Jordan Farmar (06/07)	0.2944	10.8	42.2	32.8	51.5	49.8	0.038
Leandro Barbosa (03/04)	0.3667	12.7	44.7	39.5	55.3	53.5	0.061
Jrue Holiday (09/10)	0.3333	12.3	44.2	39.0	52.6	50.2	0.032
Jeff Teague (09/10)	0.3167	11.0	39.6	21.9	45.9	41.2	0.042
Chris Carr (95/96)	0.4056	10.5	41.5	26.2	49.3	44.0	0.021
Ricky Davis (98/99)	0.3750	12.9	40.5	16.7	46.2	41.0	0.015
Monta Ellis (05/06)	0.3778	11.1	41.5	34.1	48.6	45.9	0.028
Kirk Snyder (04/05)	0.3722	8.6	37.2	35.3	45.6	41.8	-0.012
J.R. Smith (04/05)	0.4194	10.9	39.4	28.8	47.8	44.9	0.006
Mo Williams (03/04)	0.3667	9.4	38.0	25.6	43.3	39.6	0.011
Rob Williams (82/83)	0.3556	10.7	40.8	13.3	47.3	41.0	-0.004
Daequan Cook (07/08)	0.3583	7.9	38.1	33.2	48.0	45.8	-0.013
Sergio Rodriguez (06/07)	0.2861	14.1	42.3	28.2	49.3	47.3	0.050
Marcus Williams (06/07)	0.4056	11.5	39.5	28.2	47.4	43.9	-0.004
Javaris Crittenton (07/08)	0.4083	11.0	42.1	27.0	49.9	44.2	0.004
Randy Livingston (96/97)	0.2556	8.3	43.7	40.9	48.7	45.6	0.012
Kenny Satterfield (01/02)	0.3389	11.5	36.7	25.9	43.1	38.4	-0.014
Eric Bledsoe (10/11)	0.2944	10.8	42.4	27.6	49.9	45.7	0.008
Khalid El-Amin (00/01)	0.3361	12.2	37.0	33.3	45.8	41.5	0.030
Ramon Sessions (07/08)	0.3056	16.2	43.6	42.9	50.7	44.9	0.077
Kevin Martin (04/05)	0.2889	8.7	38.5	20.0	46.4	40.6	0.016
Zoran Planinic (03/04)	0.3222	10.0	41.1	28.1	49.2	33.6	0.068
Sasha Vujacic (04/05)	0.2500	8.9	28.2	27.0	40.3	35.5	0.018
Dion Glover (99/00)	0.4361	12.4	48.6	26.7	48.3	42.1	0.029

* Points per Minute

First of all that's some pretty good company right there. For some reason this group of guards (very young, non-lottery picks, given a chance in their first season) is more or less successful throughout. Really only 8 of them disappeared rather quickly after their rookie season. That's amazing because of all players that have been drafted outside the Top14 only 35.22% manage to put together an NBA career of 5 years or more. From all Guards (drafted outside the Top14) that have played at least 400 minutes during their first season and were older than 21, 48.25% manage to stay in the NBA for 5+ years. Assuming that Sessions, Stuckey and Cook will stay in the league next year, this group of young guards already has 21 players (63.36%) with an experience of 5+ years and 4 more still have the chance to do so. There's even the slight possibility that this group will match the numbers for "Lottery-Guards" which manage to stay in the NBA for 5+ years 75.21% of the time.

I was additionally surprised that it's only 33 players. Since the 80s a total of 743 guards entered the league and 618 were drafted higher than 14 (or undrafted). The main variable that scales it down so much is age. Only 63 (10.19%) of them were 21 years or younger and only these 33 went on playing at least 400 minutes during their rookie season.

Roddy leads the pack in every category despite 3-Point-Shooting (4th). I think that's what we all knew. He had a stellar rookie campaign. After his subpar 2nd year let's see how the numbers have developed in comparison to these group of similar players after their 2nd year.

Name	PPM	PER	FG%	3FG%	eFG%	TS%	WS48
Quentin Richardson	0.4750	16.9	43.7	35.6	52.5	49.7	0.115
Gilbert Arenas	0.4806	17.8	44.2	34.6	55.1	49.1	0.112
Rajon Rondo	0.3139	14.4	45.5	23.5	49.4	46.0	0.107
Tony Parker	0.3833	14.1	44.2	33.0	52.0	48.5	0.107
Daniel Gibson	0.3111	10.5	42.8	42.9	57.4	54.8	0.104
Delonte West	0.3444	13.7	45.6	37.2	54.9	52.6	0.102
Rodney Stuckey	0.4111	14.3	42.0	24.1	49.6	42.8	0.082
Nate Robinson	0.4556	13.9	42.1	39.4	53.2	48.6	0.080
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.5194	15.0	47.0	35.5	55.8	53.6	0.078
Jordan Farmar	0.3694	13.1	44.1	35.0	53.9	52.5	0.074
Leandro Barbosa	0.3861	12.7	46.1	38.1	56.4	54.1	0.071
Jrue Holiday	0.3639	13.9	44.4	37.7	52.6	49.4	0.063
Jeff Teague	0.3444	12.8	41.7	29.7	49.0	44.0	0.062
Chris Carr	0.4056	11.9	43.8	30.7	52.5	47.9	0.059
Ricky Davis	0.3861	14.1	45.4	8.3	50.2	45.6	0.053
Monta Ellis	0.4306	13.1	44.5	30.7	51.6	47.7	0.050
Kirk Snyder	0.3917	11.6	41.3	35.5	49.7	46.1	0.035
J.R. Smith	0.4250	11.8	39.3	32.9	49.6	45.7	0.033
Mo Williams	0.3639	11.7	40.9	29.0	46.8	42.8	0.029
Rob Williams	0.3861	12.0	43.4	22.6	50.0	44.1	0.026
Daequan Cook	0.3667	9.1	37.8	35.9	49.6	47.6	0.021
Sergio Rodriguez	0.2861	11.6	38.8	28.8	45.8	43.4	0.016
Marcus Williams	0.3861	11.2	38.7	33.1	48.7	45.5	0.002
Javaris Crittenton	0.3389	10.7	44.1	20.2	49.3	45.3	0.002
Randy Livingston	0.1889	6.8	34.4	20.5	41.9	35.3	-0.008
Kenny Satterfield	0.3000	8.2	33.4	21.9	38.5	34.9	-0.053
Ramon Sessions	0.3778	16.9	44.0	30.2	51.6	44.9	0.100
Kevin Martin	0.3472	11.7	43.2	28.5	53.4	47.3	0.077
Zoran Planinic	0.3722	11.2	43.0	32.8	51.3	46.9	0.071
Sasha Vujacic	0.2361	8.6	31.4	30.7	44.1	39.8	0.042
Dion Glover	0.4000	12.3	40.3	23.1	47.2	42.7	0.034

Roddy still leads in Points per Minute and FG%, 3rd in eFG% and TS%. Only real drop-off came in 3-Point shooting (9th) and the WS48-Metric (10th). He shot 49.5% on his 2-Point attempts but took too many three to end up with a decent percentage. You should feel pretty good given the success of this group and Roddy's ranking among them. So he should be still considered a promising prospect and (hopefully) without health issues and increased minutes the Mavericks can expect a lot out of him in the years ahead.

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Comments

do you have any turnover stats for that group?

because that appeared to be his main problem…

by Schwobaseggl on Jun 19, 2011 1:18 PM CDT reply actions

Turnover percentagea for 2nd seasons:

Rondo: 15.7
Robinson: 11.0
Richardson: 9.2
Arenas: 17.3
Parker: 14.5
Stuckey: 14.3
Gibson: 12.9
West: 15.4
Barbosa: 18.5
Roddy: 16.6

by Alan Smithee on Jun 19, 2011 1:50 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Turnovers

I think less than just turnovers the problem for Roddy is his decision making in general: knowing where and when to make the pass, knowing what shots not to take, knowing where to space himself on the court, etc.

I said after last season(to young guns’ chagrin) that I think a smaller, better ballhandling version of Barbosa is the best reasonable scenario for Roddy. Maybe not his ultimate ceiling(which would be Parker with 3 pt range, aka MVP candidate)…more like it’s his chandalier. Did I just coin a phrase?

I still think Barbosa-plus is a solid comp. Not a superstar like we all want, and maybe not even a true All-Star, but a productive rotation player. Nothing wrong with that.

But he’s not there yet, and he needs to get there relatively soon so the “there” can be in a Maverick uniform.

by Alan Smithee on Jun 19, 2011 2:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Chandelier not chandalier

If I’m coining a phrase it better be spelled right.

by Alan Smithee on Jun 19, 2011 2:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Roddy ranks 14th in turnover percentage. He averages more turnover than most of the others but also has the highest usage rate. So he’s in the middle of the pack. Not particularly bad.

by j0Shi on Jun 19, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions

The disconcerting thing

Is that all the guys at the top of that table, the ones that developed into quality rotation players, they all improved their PER in year 2…except Roddy. Several were younger than Roddy, too, and still improved, often significantly.

Now, Roddy had a pretty stellar rookie season, with some stastical markers that you could reasonably identify as being the product of small sample sizing and thus likely unsustainable, but it’s as though he simply failed to improve or even experienced but a small dip in production. He regressed significantly, and there aren’t many names at the top of that list who had a sophomore campaign near as bad when you factor in his defensive struggles as well.

The injury robbed him of development time and right now that’s what the optimists must cling to. Unfortunately the looming lockout may further reduce the time the Mavs have to instruct him before important evaluative decisions about him and the teams future roster construction need to be made.

by Alan Smithee on Jun 19, 2011 1:41 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

I feel like he never realy had a chance this season though. He came back way too late from the injury and the Mavs soon ran out of time to just let him play the game. It ended up in a very limited range of plays. Mostly P&Rs or ISOs on the offensive end. He still finished as the third best scorer on a per-minute basis behind Dirk and Terry despite playing the most 1-on-1 basketball of the whole team. I think that shouldn’t be overlooked.

by j0Shi on Jun 19, 2011 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah

Roddy did show flashes, and his athletic indicators still fill the stat sheet, as his rebound, steal and block rates were nearly identical to last year. Maybe the one true positive is that the injury didn’t take any of his physical gifts away, leaving hope that his issues are mental and perhaps correctable.

While not overlooked you also can’t read too much into his usage rate and points-per-minute. A lot of that comes from Dallas being so desperate for another guy who could create his own shot, especially after Butler went down. The tease of the Spurs playoff series the year before, combined with continued setbacks in his rehab made Dallas so anxious to get Roddy ready for the postseason that they pretty much let him shoot as much as he wanted regardless of whether or not it came within the natural flow of the offense.

It was a bold and commendable strategy for a veteram team and coaching staff to make; I just hope the resulting benching hasn’t hurt his confidence. Or that the benching isn’t an indication of an about-face in the organization’s view of Roddy’s future.

by Alan Smithee on Jun 19, 2011 4:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Always an upside!

Roddy didn’t look happy to be back on the court after the injury, a bit tenative in my opinion. If he’s looking to be traded then he will have to perform better this coming season. I really like Roddy, his slashing ability breaks down the defense and he’s still young. I wouldn’t be surprised if Roddy was tenative for not wanting to re-injure the foot which it looked he did the last game he played. I agree with the confidence note and expect Roddy to be 100% before he hits the court again, so we probably won’t see the tenativeness, and with a few drives his confidence will be fine. Carlisle is great at building confidence in the players. Roddy’s upside is in rebuilding him, improve his ball-handling and floor vision. We still need a PG to step up and take over for Kidd, and bringing back DoJo may help provide a little in-team competition for the PG role since the SG role just got filled with Fernandez. After this next season, I would like to see Roddy at Point with DoJo as backup and Kidd as their role coach, unless we make a move for a proven PG. All-in-all, I see Roddy picking up loads of minutes regular season, giving him a chance to prove he’s the guy and DoJo getting some quality backup minutes behind Roddy, with Kidd getting reduced minutes as the starter and finisher. And we could throw in a Frenchman to mix it up a few games at PG, to test his skills from the his D-League start.

by DallasSportsFan on Jun 26, 2011 6:49 PM CDT reply actions