A Few (Statistical) Thoughts On Rudy Fernandez
by j0Shi on Jun 24, 2011 1:00 PM CDT
in Opinion/Analysis
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PrintI'm still puzzled. Rudy Fernandez is not a bad pickup, no. But I initially thought Jordan Hamilton was a better one. I'm not really into this whole draft thing but from what I understood Hamilton is a high-volume shooter and true scorer. His shot selection is questionable and he has a reputation of being resistant to coaching. But that could have been absorbed by our veteran leadership I guess. Only a few quotes from Draft night and this morning that added to my discomfort:
Hamilton to Dallas. And the rich get richer. Put a mega-talent w/a questionable attitude on a super high character team & watch him blossom.
Hamilton is highway robbery. Denver [...] got back Andre Miller AND Hamilton, who bizarrely slid down the draft. Hamilton can do the work of Wilson Chandler should he depart in free agency
Maybe Fernandez will find new life in Dallas, but at best he’s an active offensive participant, a three-point threat, and a defensive liability. Couldn’t Hamilton be capable of the same, while giving the Mavs another interesting piece for the future?
Okay so we passed on a project to acquire Rudy Fernandez. It's obvious that this team will be all about winning again next season which is at first a good thing. Rudy is a proven player (I will refuse to call him veteran though, that's a bit odd for a 3-year player in my eyes) and can contribute right away. Or ... maybe. Because Rudy might be kind of a project as well. First his numbers have constantly declined after his rookie season. He shot 39.90% on Threes in 08/09 and that percentage has dropped down to 32.10%. His overall shooting numbers are down from 42.50% to 37.00%. That's important because he most likely will replace Peja Stojakovic and/or DeShawn Stevenson. Both contributed heavily with their 3-Point shooting in particular playoff series and over the season. What Rudy brings to the table is more athleticism. His 9.50% Defensive Rebound Rate this season is above the average for his position. He also is a better playmaker and can create for others, boost the transition game and handle the ball at times. But he is not constantly attacking the rim or getting to the line. The vast majority of his shots have been 3-Pointers (62.96%) during his NBA career.
He's only 26 though. So with only one bad year in the NBA and a promising career overseas before entering the league you could think that he is more likely to rebound while Stevenson and Peja are bound to decline next season. Also add that he has a very convenient contract.
An interesting side note is Tim MacMahon reporting that Rudy is a monster according to adjusted plus-minus. I checked basketball-value.com but I can't see it. He had his best season in 08/09 but even back then he was nowhere near the Top20. If someone has a clue let me now.
With that said I am comfortable with him replacing Peja. I think he could regain his touch and he expressed discontent over his situation in Portland. So that could have very well affected his performance as well. He was in very good spirits on Draft Night and apparently is really happy to join the World Champions!
thanks all blazers fans for ur support this 3 years!! So happy to be in the best team in the nba!!!dallas!!!
There will still be question marks. Offensively and, especially, defensively. You all know what Stevenson brought to the table this season. Pure toughness. I loved what that dude has done for the team last season. But I also thought we came away with playing him ... more or less. He helped out wonderfully when we needed him and I really respect his overall commitment. He was known as a player who doesn't always give his best and he certainly did that last season. But our starting unit was flat out awful and he played rather mediocre until LeBron James walked onto the court in the Finals. I think it was our bench that backed us up more than anything during the first three rounds of the playoffs. So I have to say that I would live with Stevenson's departure. If not for Roddy's injury, he probably wouldn't have played at all.
But Stevenson surely will leave a defensive hole in the lineup. Rudy's reputation as defender is questionable at best and I don't see him filling this shoes anywhere near in the future. Although we got Corey Brewer hopefully stepping up in that department I'd really like to see Caron Butler back in uniform next season now. Pair them with Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler and that would result in a very potent (and big) starting lineup on both ends of the floor.
And I'd like to bring another question up: What about Rodrigue Beaubois? Donnie Nelson stated multiple times now that they see Rudy as their starting SG (essentially overtaking Stevenson's minutes). We all want Jose Barea back and although there's uncertainty with the new CBA and other teams overpaying him, he would eat up any minutes at the backup PG spot. So where exactly do minutes for Roddy come from? I am all into that "win now" thing and such but I really thought that we would at least give Brewer and Roddy constant slots to start the season and let them develop their game. Why? Because it's important. If Roddy fails to play 18 MPG next season (through all 82 games) he will end up with under 2700 career minutes (regular season only) after his third season. From all the guards since the 80's that played 2700 or less minutes throughout their first three seasons, only 30% have put together a career of 7 seasons or more. The average career lasted 5.5 seasons for these guards. Avery Johnson leads that list with an experience of 16 seasons. Rick Carlisle btw. played 1236 minutes in his first three season and remained only 5 years in the NBA as a player. Another positive example of that group is DeShawn Stevenson who played 2187 minutes in his first three years but finished his 11th season recently.
Anyway: That Frenchman needs minutes. Otherwise the Mavs would have been better off trading him when his stock was higher. And the acquisition of Rudy hasn't exactly "more minutes for Roddy" written all over it. Quite the opposite to be honest. Maybe I am too pessimistic but the Mavs have shown that they will switch to their veterans (and Rudy is a 'young veteran' in their eyes) if things will get shaky. And things will get shaky with Roddy on the floor.
The offseason will be long (hopefully not too long ...) and more things can happen. The CBA maybe will get more dynamic into things but right now I am a bit disappointed how things have unfolded during Draft Night.
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Have fun with Rudy
He was a roller coaster- to say the least. Some days he shoots lights out and others he can’t even buy a basket. You are lucky that he is happy to be coming to Dallas, last year he didn’t even want to be in Portland and it showed in his playing. He got over his feelings for Portland (actually started liking it) and he started playing better, and then his playing went down. When he is playing well he can be one of the more exciting players on the court and he does not stop running- ever.
And his perimeter defense- not bad.
1952-2010 R.I.P
Hmm...a blogging Maverick huh?
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I knew that before reading it because of the header/banner :D
The idea of a Maverick blogging…wouldn’t anyone like it?
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I think stressing over Roddy’s minutes is kind of putting the cart in front of the horse. If Roddy earns minutes, he’ll get them. Competition for spots in the rotation and solid challenges in practice are good things
As for your 2700 or under minute guard success rate, I’d be willing to bet that almost every failure in that category either never showed Roddy’s promise or had a devastating injury during the first three years that they never bounced back from.
Also, keep in mind that they’ll likely minimize Kidd’s minutes as much as possible. That along with Peja and Deshawn’s likely departures (hopefully not JJ’s) mean that Carlisle should have a decent amount of backcourt minutes to dole out while trying to find the best 5-man units next season (assuming we get close to 82).
Looking at free agency for this team both now and next year, SG is a question mark, and I think the Mavs were smart to buy low on a contributor at that position.
The loser in this is probably Dominique Jones, who will need to spend some more time in the D-League.
Roddy
I imagine if he doesn’t pan out he will be placed in the category of “never bounced back from injury” even if that isn’t exactly the case.
The fact that SG is a “question mark” I think strengthens the case against Rudy, because almost certainly he is a stopgap, not a future building block, and while the proven commodities behind him aren’t many, Dallas has invested a decent amount on the position, with their previous two top picks, and a multi-year deal for Brewer(and a lot of time and energy trying to develop those two).
by Alan Smithee on Jun 24, 2011 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
clarification
Number 1, I expect Roddy to pan out, but I’m not terribly concerned about his minutes this year. Carlisle showed last year that he’d give the kid some PT during the regular season even when he’s not at the top of his game. I think Roddy will be better this year, though.
What I meant by “SG is a question mark,” is that the Mavs after JJ and Stevenson are free agents this year, Terry and Kidd will be next summer. Amidst that, I like the Mavs having extra flexibility. Here’s the Mavs depth chart as I see it, with a ? after current FAs, and an * after 2012 FAs:
C: Chandler?, Haywood, Mahinmi*
PF: Dirk, Matrix, Cardinal?
SF: Butler?, Matrix, Brewer, Peja?
SG: Rudy*, Terry*, Roddy, Brewer, Stevenson?, Jones
PG: Kidd*, JJ?, Roddy
If they can do so at a decent cap number, I hope they extend Rudy now. I still remember him torching people in the 2010 games, and his rookie season in Portland. At 26, why can’t he be a future building block?
Do you think Jordan Hamilton would have been a player to build around? I don’t see a ball-hog with a decent jump shot and not very good D cracking the SF rotation above, and the scouts are saying his ceiling for his career isn’t much more than a fringe starter.
Extend Rudy now?
That seems like a really, really risky move. He’s regressed each year he’s been in the league, he’s openly complained when he doesn’t the minutes he desires, and he has something of a reputation of shrinking in the playoffs. Also, I think the “torching” you refer to was in 2008, before his rookie year, and as his numbers go backwards that continues to look farther and farther off.
That really isn’t the type of player you invest in longterm. The whole reason he’s not awful as a trade acquisition is because he’s low-risk: he doesn’t make much and he doesn’t make it for long. Extending him takes his one real positive and turns it into a negative.
I don’t see him as a building block, no. My impression is that he was specifically a target because his contract fits the organizational plan for the next 18 months. He’ll come off the books with Terry and Kidd, maybe/hopefully they find a taker for Haywood and that allows the team to take a legitimate look at the 2012 free agency.
Chandler was a guy the team bought low on, and I certainly was dubious as to his health going forward. It worked out, although he could easily get hurt next year and break our hearts. Still, he had a great year and exceeded every reasonable expectation while more than justifying the organizational scouting faith. I just don’t expect lightning to strike twice.
I don’t think I was ever advocating they keep Hamilton. I think he has talent and I do think forward could be a need depending on what happens in FA. I’m not sure he’s the type of project Dallas should be taking on, though. I was content with the idea of stashing someone, especially in a draft considered pretty outstanding in terms of international prospects, and pretty mediocre in domestic products.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 3:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I forgot that Rudy would be a restricted FA next year. Even though the possible hard cap makes that riskier, you’re right that extending him at anything other than a small cap number (like his current salary) would be foolish.
I never heard anyone say that this draft was outstanding in international prospects. I trust Donnie Nelson when it comes to international prospects, and if he didn’t feel good about any of the available ones, then I’m not concerned about lost opportunity there.
The NBA writers I most respect (Lowe, Simmons, Hollinger, Thorpe, etc.) almost universally praise the Mavs for getting Rudy. The one exception that gives me pause is Rob Mahoney, but he started his criticism with a tweet about disappointment the Mavs weren’t keeping a UT player, so his objectivity in this case may be questionable.
Rudy’s playoff struggles could just be victim of small sample sizes, and the consensus seems to be that his issues in the last year or so have been mainly a product of a Blazers system that didn’t fit his sty;e of play.
re:
I never heard anyone say that this draft was outstanding in international prospects.
Alright. Chad Ford and Fran Fraschilla called it the best in years. I mean, even if you don’t take their word for it…did you see the draft? There were four international prospects taken in the first seven picks. That’s completely unheard of.
I trust Donnie Nelson when it comes to international prospects, and if he didn’t feel good about any of the available ones, then I’m not concerned about lost opportunity there.
Well, I didn’t say I thought it was a lost opportunity. I was just saying that’s what I thought they were going to do, since that was what a lot of reports were indicating.
My unverified opinion is that that would have taken Mirotic had he been there(and there were several projections that did have him there). Unfortunately, another team pounced before they came up, and there was a bit of a divide between those top six international prospects and the next tier, I suppose.
The NBA writers I most respect (Lowe, Simmons, Hollinger, Thorpe, etc.) almost universally praise the Mavs for getting Rudy
I don’t think the praise is earth shattering. On a night build around teams adding completely unknown commodities, Dallas added a known one. Kind of hard to mount a legitimate argument against that.
Rudy’s playoff struggles could just be victim of small sample sizes, and the consensus seems to be that his issues in the last year or so have been mainly a product of a Blazers system that didn’t fit his sty;e of play.
Maybe. Portland plays a very slow pace(though Dallas isn’t exactly run and gun), and they run a lot of iso plays(Dallas does some of that, too). Certainly, Dallas is better at moving the ball.
At the end of the day its going to come down to hitting open shots. Shooting 37% from the field and 32% from three is not going to be acceptable.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think they should extend him right now
Keep the options open. But why can’t he be a potential building block? He’s 26 and really talented. You could argue that he’s just been stuck in a not very good situation where the system and personnel didn’t really suit his game. And he’s still averaged almost 10 points a game in his career.
He’s a guy who’s shown glimpses of more, just been incapable of tapping into it consistently. In that sense, he’s pobably more of a “low risk, high reward” gamble as opposed to a “low risk, stop-gap”
there are plenty of 26 year old really talented guys in the NBA
Are we really thinking that stepping foot in Dallas is going to turn him from a guy who had a PER of 13 two seasons in a row into a franchise cornerstone?
He could be good. Based on the evidence available there doesn’t seem to be much of a reason to expect he’ll be great though, and likely not anything more than a quality role player.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't thnk he's going to be an all star
Or even a borderline all star, But I think (and this is just a completely arbitrary estimation pulled outta my ass) his ceiling could be somewhere around 13ppg with 3 assists 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 3ptm and 1.5 steals a game.
His production has been role-player worthy, but his tools (athleticism, shooting ability, etc) shows that he might be capable of more.
I don’t think his ceiling is ‘great’ by any means, but I think he’s definitely good enough to start for a championship team. He starts the game, gets a few back door alley oops from kidd, knocks down some threes and that’s a good pick. He shot poorly in Portland but its not like we’re trading for a guy who CAN’T shoot well, he’s proven over a full season (his rookie year) that he has the ability at least to shoot well. Better spacing, better teamates, better point guard, more suitable role, etc
A ‘poor man’s ginobili’ for the 26th pick in a weak draft, with a KNOWN floor of a 9ppg scorer on a 2 mill contract and the option to let him go if he doesn’t pan out? That’s a sensible gamble IMHO
That whole paragraph that starts "There will be question marks"
Either needs a re-do or I’m missing something.
Rudy
Obviously, there’s a lot to like talent-wise. Most everything else? Not sure. The production on court has declined from what was not Olympian levels to begin with. There are legitimate concerns with his mental toughness, his desire to improve and sacrifice for the team, and his interest at all in remaining in the country.
True, most of that is why he was actually attainable, as its clearly a buy low scenario. Optimistically, I can imagine him fitting in well with Dallas’ floor spacing offense, getting confidence back in his shot, and perhaps with instruction and encouragement harnessing a more well-rounded offensive attack, as I do believe he has the skills to slash and finish, as well as make the pretty pass.
I’m not sure what Jordan Hamilton will become, and, really, we should all put that aside. The main thing is Dallas turned the 26th pick into a likely rotation player. Someone who has pro experience, both in the U.S and in Spain, and has played on medal winning teams and playoff expectant organizations. Someone I presume(hope?) Dallas thinks can improve on what he’s shown, but if he doesn’t, won’t cost much and can be gone very quickly.
Examined under that lens it looks pretty good. For me the tricky part is where does he fit minutes wise?
Assuming for the moment that Peja and Stevenson are gone, you have:
1-Kidd, Barea*
2/1-Terry, Rudy, Roddy, Dojo
2/3-Butler*, Brewer
Asterisks denote free agents, naturally. Butler won’t play much at the 2, but since he can and has played there in the past I included him. If Barea leaves you have Calathes and/or Koponen in Europe possibly ready to take his place.
Even if you say Butler doesn’t return(which, without Peja or Stevenson, would leave a pretty big hole at the 3), or doesn’t ever play guard, you still have 7 guys to split over 2 positions. My brain already hurts from thinking about how many three guard lineups Carlisle might use.
Kidd, Terry, Marion, Butler: the clock is ticking down to the point where they will leave, retire, or simply break down physically. You want to have some idea of which young guys on your team can actually play before that point arrives, right? Even the guys that won’t be on the team past 2012 might still be useful trade pieces if they’re given enough court time to demonstrate something of value. Adding marginal players to a crowded mix doesn’t help that.
And to those thinking that Deron Williams or Dwight Howard or Chris Paul are coming…well, if that’s the plan, there’s a lot of salary that’s going to need clearing, because Dallas isn’t projected to have much cap space, and their most attractive trade assets might spend most of next year on the bench watching Rudy Fernandez chuck threes to a soundtrack of decidedly effeminate swooning.
Well as I have said before....
I don’t think Berea is staying in Dallas….which will mean that Beaubois and Jones will be fighting for the Backup PG minutes….
Terry will continue to be the “sixth man” so more than Likely Rudy will be the “defacto starter”, though Terry’s minutes may decline some….
Butler MAY be back(though not for what he was making), however him leaving doesn’t really leave a hole as much as opens a spot for Brewer(marion becomes either starter or “alt” sixth man
As for your Three guard line up, I will see that and raise you a 5 guard Line up….
Roddy-PG
Terry-SG
DoJo-SF
Fernandez-PF
Brewer-C
How bout that Mr Doubting mustafa?!….
I have a post in the works that will be comparing Deshawn and Rudy plus looks at what Carlisle may do with Rudy…..
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 24, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I would very surprised
if Dallas entered the new season with Roddy and Jones as the main options at backup point guard. That seems very foolhardy. Someone else would need to be added, either an MLE/vet minimum type or one of aforementioned Euros.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 24, 2011 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Well the Mavs have said that Beaubois
is the “heir to Kidd” at PG from what I understand(could be wrong )
If that is the case then it would behoove Dallas to let Beaubois to have the Backup PG spot(though I think DoJO might be better but that is JMO…)
You also have to remember Dallas has 2 PG overseas now in Calathes and Koponos(sp?) that seem to be ready to move back to the States, so He wouldn’t be the Only backup….
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 24, 2011 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Any "heir to Kidd"
Talk I think happened before Roddy’s unimpressive showing in last year’s summer league and the continued struggles to run the offense this year. Obviously you still try to develop his ball skills, but I think the buzz around Roddy as a point man have quieted somewhat.
He still might be a big part of the teams plans, I would guess though that he plays the off guard most of the time going forward. One has to like the fact that Dallas seems intent on stockpiling big guards with point skills, who would offer some backcourt synergy.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 3:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
He could be an 'heir to kidd'
In the sense that if he shows enough promise, we could swing a deal for one of the elite PGs in the 2012 FA class.
Say Kidd retires after next year, we have Kidd’s expiring + Terry’s expiring + Beaubois as trade chips for CP3 or D-Will (+cash to buy Terry out so he can return to Dallas).
For a team like New Orleans, that kind of cap flexibility and young talent would be pretty attractive no? Or am I crazy (very real possibility)
hard to say
without knowing what other teams would be offering, but my initial reaction is that such an offer probably wouldn’t be enough to get one of those PG’s.
I think the best chance Dallas has is in Williams deciding he really wants to come home and signing here. I don’t think Dallas is going to have good enough trade pieces.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Could somebody explain why
Rudy Fernandez is being paid $1,246,680 for 2010/11 season? http://hoopshype.com/salaries/dallas.htm
I thin he was really paid 1.2M
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions
think*
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions
He was, but mavic was thinking the Mavericks were paying that.
That was what Portland paid him for the 2010-11 season, just ignore than it says the Mavs are paying it.
Rookie scale contract
It’s true
by somanluna1 on Jun 25, 2011 1:12 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not able to find it again
but I thought I read that Dallas giving their 26th pick to Portland for Rudy was already established pre-draft? Dallas never could have kept Hamilton, at least not without breaking their word. I seem to remember something to that effect.
I don't remember hearing that
it seemed that Dallas was a last minute participant in that trade, after catching wind of Denver and Portland trying to swap point guards.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 24, 2011 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmm.
I haven’t heard anything about that, so I’ll assume that the person I saw say that was wrong. It was over on a message board.
We don't have place for Hamilton
C.Brewer is already a project SF who is getting paid GOOD money and still doesn’t have a place in the rotation.Why keep a young guy like Hamilton when we already have one,much more proved than him in Brewer? While Rudy, even though I’m not so high on him can help us right away in the SG position.And he can shoot 3s, ya know our team loves to shoot 3s..:D
brewer's really more of a 2
considering that he’s listed at just under 190 pounds. Also, if Butler doesn’t resign your forwards are Dirk, Marion and Cardinal. That would have definitely created a spot for Hamilton, and even if Butler stays, there still would have been room for him.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 24, 2011 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Ha!
Brewer is 6-9! Almost a seven footer and yo’re saying that he should look to develop his career at the 2? The weight will come with age, he’s definitively a small forward.Mavs drafted Hamilton because Denver wanted him, D.Nelson knows his things.He would have never picked a another sf for his team.If Butler doesn’t resign..no big deal..we will not remain with Dirk,Marion and Cardinal…moves will be on the way.There r plenty of players like Butler in the NBA
HEEEEYY…WHO SAID I DIDN’T PLAY????
Being 6'9 isn't relevant
Frankly having seen him on the court I suspect he’s closer to 6’8 anyway. Not that it matters. His height is not the deciding factor, its his bulk and agility; the former being such that he has trouble with physical forwards, and the latter being good enough to allow him to keep up with smaller guards, 6’9 or not. And it’s not something he’ll need to “develop”. He has been playing the 2 on and off for years. A reason I think he’s better off staying there is that since he’s already 25 I don’t think he’s going to suddenly put on 15 pounds of muscle. To paraphrase the great philosopher Popeye, he is who he is.
Tracy McGrady was even bulkier than Brewer and he played the 2 in his heday.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 3:43 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
OT: Dirk threw the first pitch at the Ballpark in Arlington tonight
Here’s the pitch…teehee
Don't play F A G! Do not play F A G! Don't- (BLAST F). OH MY GOD WHAT ARE YOU (BLAST A) DOING?! I SAID NOT TO (BLAST G)!
by DFWTrojanTuba on Jun 24, 2011 7:38 PM CDT reply actions 11 recs
This is smile-inducing
easily rec’d
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:20 AM CDT up reply actions
That's a strike in my book...
I love the turnaround J at the beginning.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 25, 2011 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions
I used to like Fernandez
Until he choked (along with Troutlaw) in that playoff series vs. Houston.
This year’s playoffs was no different.
He’s a semi-athletic chucker that can’t shoot. Bad combination.
Like I was saying
his second favorite pastime (after putting people to sleep at dunk contests) is taking contested three pointers off the dribble, and bricking them, but only after going through his litany of super cool dribble moves, all the while standing in one place.
Actually his dribble moves before his jumpers remind me of that guy in Raiders of the Lost Ark, the Arab swordsman who confronts Indy and displays all his fancy swordplay moves, until Indy finally pulls out his gun and drops the guy with one shot.
its cool if your being a doubter. i mean los have have been proving all kinds of critics wrong..
you have to remember that rudy has a backup and thats the JET.
So...is Rudy actually the age he says he is
or is he five years older and ineligible for the trade? (Oh wait, never mind, we’re not Minnesota…) :)
www.dimmedwits.com
I like the draft trade move
Like some of you, I think J.J. will be enjoying much higher pay in a new club, congrats and thank you very much! Peja will retire, job well done, thank you! Stevenson will find greener grass too, congrats and thanks. Butler will find a longer contract than what the Mavs are willing to give, and be gone as well, wish you could stay. Chandler may not like the new contract length either and may be upscaling someone else’s roster, congrats and thank you so much for everything, hope we can convince you to stay.
If we can only keep one, between J.J., Butler or Chandler, which would you choose? (rhetorical)
The upside to all the losses would be more playing time for the younger crew, and I can see Mahinmi, Brewer, Rudy, Roddy and DoJo as ready to step up. I’m glad Carlisle has had success with a 3 guard line-up.
So with the trade we have a new starting G and I like that.
by DallasSportsFan on Jun 24, 2011 9:14 PM CDT reply actions
Chandler without a doubt
Butler would be a great resign too though…..I honestly think that if Butler doesn’t get injured we would have had the #1 seed in the playoffs…..
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 24, 2011 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions
CHANDLER
Definitely, definitely Chandler.
by JoeyJoeJoeJr.Shabadoo on Jun 25, 2011 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions
Hope for Amnesty Clause in CBA
If so, they can buyout Haywood and his crappy contract…resign Chandler or other FAs.
I've got to think JJ is gone
He’ll get overpaid and I don’t think the Mavs are all that thrilled to resign him anyway. Barea’s skillset is very similar to Roddy’s (he only has slightly better court vision, but doesn’t have the offensive potential of the Frenchman), which makes him a bit superfluous if Roddy is healthy next year.
by JoeyJoeJoeJr.Shabadoo on Jun 24, 2011 11:30 PM CDT reply actions
This
I’m pretty sure that Donnie and Robot would try to play Roddy at the PG. They have expressed their intent prior to the 2010-2011 season to develop him at the 1 position that is why they allowed him to play for France. The foot injury only derailed all of that.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Rudy will do well with the Mavs
New coach, chance to start and a different system may be just what the doctor ordered for him. McMillans a good coach and I’m glad to have him coaching the Blazers but I’m not sure he was the best coach for Rudy. Plus he never had a chance to start in Portland except a few times when they needed him to, not with BRoy well-established as the starter and now Wesley Matthews. I really think this will be a good thing for both he and the Mavs.
Yes I’m a Blazer fan first but I got a lot of respect for the Mavs over the course of the Playoffs so now that Rudys there the Mavs are officially my second favorite team! I loved watching the Mavs dismantle the Lakers and the Heat!
by somanluna1 on Jun 25, 2011 1:24 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Are u spanish?
How is Portland still your fav team if Rudy is gone? Just admit that Dallas is your new favorite team lol
Nope, been to Italy once but I'm a Portlander!
My heart still belongs to the Blazers, it’s not like the rest of the players I like got traded or anything. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the Spaniards totally convert to Mavs fans but I’m just a partial convert. Saw the Mavs three times last season (2 of the first round) and then kept watching. The Mavs grew on me … what else can I say?
Let's put it this way ...
I’ll be wearing my Fernandez jersey (Blazer) to the Mavs games but won’t be upset with whoever wins those games.
Good for you
being in a win-win situation in the Mavs-Blazers next games.I would be on the same situation if Dirk was playing on a another team because he has done so much for the Mavs.In your case it looks hard for me to figure out how a Portland native would be ok with the Blazers losing,just because of Rudy.I mean he was a bench player all the time,hasn’t made miracles for the Blazers…I know you may be a fan but I don’t get so much love for him when your team is playing.That’s why I asked you that question
Hm, it's kind of two different reasons
1) After I got past the initial hatred of everything Mavs after the Blazers got eliminated in the Playoffs in the first round, again, and was watching the Mavs play against teams not the Blazers I guess my perspective changed a bit and found that they are a bunch of talented guys that went out and did it, and were very unselfish as a team. It’s different when you’re not as invested in it and don’t have your own announcers in your ear so to speak so was focusing less on why we weren’t winning and just watching the game.
2) Rudy’s my favorite player (yeah, maybe not the best player on the team) since his rookie year. He was so much fun to watch play and when he’s on it’s amazing. Since his rookie year he had a tough time after we traded Sergio (who was the PG who orchestrated the amazing alley-oops and knew exactly how to set Rudy up), got injured and it became apparent that at least part of the problem is Nate’s system. In the summer when he plays with the Spanish National Team and he’s amazing but it’s a completely different system and his role is different there so it’s not that he can’t do it. Maybe in Dallas, it’ll work …
Sidenote … I would rather the Blazers win but will be ok if the Mavs win when they play each other but if it’s during the Playoffs that’s a different animal. I’ll be Blazers all the way and only ok the Mavs won after a few days to cool off. At this point, I’m not even totally confident we’ll get there with the questions about Oden, BRoy and lack of any depth behind LaMarcus. Ugh! We had to draft another point guard and shooting guard! So, if LaMarcus and Camby are hurt Nic’s our starting center?! Anyway … I had two cats, Soma and Luna (also Spanish for moon) and have always used that as my username.
I like the move
Rudy fits well with the team. He may not be a good defender, but I think he’s a better defender than Peja. Also, he fits in with the international culture.
Rick Carlisle knows how to use players to their strength and I think Rudy will get a few more dunks and won’t be as much of a liability on defense. He’ll be coming off the bench and can back up Marion (Who, like Dirk, has no true backup, let’s not forget). Dallas is looking to repeat.
if we resign Butler...
Marion is the Backup….
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 25, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
My bad
I meant…well whoever starts at SG….Rudy would be the backup…right? Or would he start? I thought he was going to fill the Peja role…
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 26, 2011 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions
I see Rudy starting
Terry is comfortable with being the sixth man, so with Fernandez starting he can stay in that role…..it really is a win win for Dallas…They upgrade the starting 5 offensively while maintaining the Bench production…..
The biggest question will be on the defensive end…Stevenson is a tenacious defender,(which is why I wouldn’t mind Dallas resigning him to a cheap contract) and Fernandez isn’t exactly known for his defense. However as long as He is adequate(ie roughly 2011 Terry level) then they should be fine….
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 26, 2011 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Regarding Roddy
It really looks like the Mavericks are not expecting Barea to come back. He will land somewhere else and the Mavs are not in a position that they have to overpay him because they got Roddy. They wanted Roddy to develop into a PG and it seems like Rudy will overtake Stevenson’s starting role at the 2 and Roddy will pick up backup PG duties.
agree
the move for rudy seems to back up exactly this plan.i consider an improvement replacing barea for rudy at the 2.can defend better than barea,rebound better, in the same category as a scorer
If Roddy can bring what they expect it’s definitely an upgrade. Huge one. In theory Roddy should be able to provide the exact same things JJB did plus more. And Rudy is clearly an upgrade over D-Steve at the 2.
I don't know if I agree
I don’t think Rudy is an upgrade over Stevenson. Stevenson is a tenacious defender…Rudy doesn’t come close. I think JJB is gone as well. I think what happens is Chandler and DeShawn get resigned and Rudy is more of a backup to Shawn Marion and can help the Mavs when they want to go small.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 25, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Don’t forget that Stevenson really was an emergency filler because Roddy didn’t work out as intended due to his long absence. And the team really didn’t perform too well with him on the court. He’s a tough dude an defensive-minded, but at the end of the day it’s about outscoring your opponent. And the Mavs weren’t able to do that with Stevenson. We’ll still have Marion as our premier wing defender and Brewer should step up too. I think Butler is an important signing and don’t forget that Roddy will be a huge defensive upgrade over JJB. Despite his offensive struggles he already was one of our better defenders this season. The team might be a bit weaker at the SG going into the next season but overall it should at least even out through all five positions.
In addition, if you remove the Finals
Stevenson had a terrible playoffs overall in my opinion.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
with him starting
we didn’t look in a position to win the Finals.The JJB move, came up big for us,and Stevenson was effective from the bench.
I agree but...
Stevenson is a threat from 3 point range. If Butler signs, then the problem is solved, but if he isn’t, then Brewer and Marion can’t do that. I do believe that if Butler is fully healed, I’d rather have Butler around than Stevenson.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 26, 2011 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking in line of both Chandler and Butler being resigned and JJB being signed by another team.
With Rudy and Roddy as both long-range threats, Stevenson is expendable.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 26, 2011 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I can agree with that
Butler is a tenacious defender as well. I like it. Think Stevenson’ll sign with the Heat? :-p
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 26, 2011 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that the Heat will not be even interested.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 27, 2011 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Hmm
If Roddy is the “point guard” I believe it will be in name only; I just don’t think he has the passing instincts to really be that kind of player. If he’s your 1 you better have someone in backcourt that can handle and distribute. I like Rudy’s passing but the numbers don’t say he’s quite that guy.
Then there’s what happens when they’re not on offense. Barea is no Gary Payton but Rudy and Roddy represent a major defensive downgrade.
If what you say is the plan it comes with considerable risk for a team looking to repeat.
by Alan Smithee on Jun 25, 2011 3:50 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If there will be a season.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."
- Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Jun 25, 2011 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think there's a chance JJB comes back.
The Mavericks don’t see him as a starting PG, and they will need a starting PG very soon when Kidd retires. To groom one, they will need minutes, and JJB is taking them. Its nothing against JJ, but he’s simply in the way for this team. Roddy or Dojo seem like much better options there, considering they both have the potential to be long-term starting point guards for this team. Getting JJB’s minutes (and then some more, because Kidd will probably be resting more than ever), learning from Kidd, and still getting some minutes at the 2 with Kidd, will help both those kids develop and grow.
definitely agree tcat
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 25, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions
no way JJ will leave dirk like that.. especially how they meshed great all season.
plus he would start at shooting guard. so far mavs been undefeated having him start like that. cuban is going to dish out some well deserved pay for the little guy. roddy seems like the one to be the one to go when the trade deadline hits. he produced nothing all season and got injured again. looks to me he is too weak for the game. can’t even play defense as well.
JJ had some very good playoffs games...
but I don’t know what do you mean about him meshing great with Dirk.He never makes a damn pass to Dirk.He can’t run the offense and him replacing Kidd at PG was one of the reasons the Mavs can’t close anyone out.Teams would always catch up no matter if we had a 15 or 20 point lead all year long.Barea can be a good role player if it’s used in a smart way, but l say let’s not get to high on him just because we won it all.
oh you are new here..
if JJ and dirk play tennis it means they mesh well as being good friends. which means once the little guy is in his prime like dirk is right now the future looks good. you need a true point guard and a scorer. also he is apart of the core that brought dallas a title.
Fjodor's right.
JJB and Dirk may coexist, but one of things I hate most about JJB is how he “handles” Dirk, as the team’s PG. He simply does not get him the ball enough, with enough time, in the right spots. Sometimes, if JJB has it rolling, Dirk actually prefers to defer to him and let Barea make something happen. Other times, Barea dribbles the clock down to 7 seconds, and then tries to beat his defender and ends up taking a long off balance jumper.
I like how you call JJB a “true point guard” in your second post, and then say that he would start at shooting guard. He’s not. He’s a passable PG of the scoring variety, who looks for his own shot a lot. He’s a good offensive spark combo guard off the bench, when paired with a versatile defender at the other guard spot. He’s not a starter, although someone this offseason will pay him as such, which is why he won’t be back.
Friends have no part in the business world of basketball. I haven’t heard anything about JJB and Dirk being inseparable friends, and even if they are, Dirk understands that the F.O. has to do their job. Their job involves not signing backups to excessive, starter-money contracts. Unless JJB is still available for cheap, which after his playoff run is guaranteed not to be the case in my eyes, he won’t be back. Its the right move for the Mavs and for JJB moving forward.
frankly I would have loved to moved him(Berea) at the trade deadline...
I pointed out at the time that him and Haywood would have matched up perfectly with Kevin Martin’s contract…..
Which would have given Houston a “quality” C, plus salary relief….which is what they were looking for at the time…..
And Martin> Berea….particularly given what they bring to the table…..
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 26, 2011 1:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I think we're jumping to assumptions to say Houston wants to part with Martin
They want a C, they could use salary relief, but Martin is still a young player. They’re a rebuilding team, and you don’t rebuild by trading away one of your best players who still has his best years in front of him (he’s 28, if you’re wondering).
but that is the thing he is 28
by the time the get a decent team together(2-3 years from now) he will be 30ish and starting to decline…..if they can get a Good C plus a couple of young players plus a draft pick or two…..My Idea would be this: (click Here)
this gives Houston a good Center that isn’t too expensive, two young players, and Salary relief…..
Dallas gets A young Jason Terry(basically) plus a capable backup for Dirk…..who might even be able to play the 3 in some situations…..
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 28, 2011 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know...
I think the JJB-Dirk pick and roll was DEADLY…especially against the Lakers and Miami (Steve Blake and Mike Bibby). That being said, I’d rather it be the Roddy B. and Dirk pick and roll. I think JJB is one of the lesser important FA signings. It goes like this:
1. Chandler
2. Butler (Depending on his health)
3. JJB
4. Stevenson
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 26, 2011 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
the thing is with JJ
He can absolutely destroy the "slower PG’s (Blake and Bibby) which is why the Pick and roll was so effective….Notice though that once he came up against better defenders then he was alot less effective(until Dallas started using multiple screens)
I agree that Beaubois would be much more effective plus would be an upgrade on the defensive end… the same could be said of Jones also…
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 26, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I do agree with this
I think that one thing that helped is that Dallas was relentless on the stagger pick and roll’s which gave Barea and Nowitzki more space. Throwing two 7 footers out there (Dirk and Chandler/Haywood) and then staggering in a quick Marion screen will help people out tremendously.
I do think that if it didn’t work the first time, the Mavericks would reset and try it again until it did work. If it didn’t work and there were 6-7 seconds left on the clock, Dirk just set up at the elbow and did his thing.
Point is: Roddy can mature to be as good/better than Barea and the problem is solved. I’m willing to take that chance instead of pay Barea more.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 26, 2011 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
At times, yes, it had a lot of success.
At other times, when JJB couldn’t hit a shot (early Miami), it didn’t work so well. In fact, didn’t the Mavericks have to change to a JJB/Chandler PnR late in the Miami series? Miami was defending the Dirk one too well, mainly by giving it extra attention and going under at all times so that JJB could take and miss as many shots as he wanted.
I don't think that's true
JJB hit quite a few 3 pointers when they went under the screen. Here are a few examples:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV9z8czMTLg
Game 5 could just be a good game (He was at home after all), but I saw this at least for one or two games per series, even with better atheletes (Westbrook, Chalmers) guarding him.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 26, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
exactly, he is worth the pay when you see a championship.
him and tyson are the big pay day players. the other free agents should be signed with fair amount contracts just not as big obviously.
yeah. JJ is a true point guard..
although he can play the 2 spot decoy as well while him and kidd share the ball around. it worked perfectly in the finals when you witnessed it. JJ is just not old enough to start at point cause of niño. he still has much to learn but so far it brought dallas a championship. and if you live here the people already love the guy. especially with the fans of puerto ricans. i highly doubt mark cuban and donnie nelson will let go of a mavs prospect that easy.
i see roddy being on a short leash and useable for a possible trade by the time deadline hits. he is almost looking like a fluke that i bet would get hurt again in his first 10 minutes of action.
I actually don't believe this
I don’t think JJ played the 2 as a decoy…in fact, I think Carlisle usually gave JJ the ball handling duties and let Kidd play the 2 as a spot up shooter, which is even better.
I agree…I say sign Chandler and JJ. Let Stevenson and Butler go unless you can sign Butler, but I have no problem with Marion starting.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 28, 2011 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
exactly, he started the 2 spot playing decoy of actually being the ball handler yes...
you might see stevenson comeback for a good price. him and butler will most likely start next season. while you have marion and JET off the bench again. marion is older now.
I'm new here??
How is that related to the topic?? Just because you have joined the blog earlier than me doesn’t give your arguments an edge, or doesn’t mean you are a bigger fan.I just called it how I see it on the court, and how Barea runs the 24secs as a PG, and yo’re talking me about tennis and off court stuffs.Btw as I know Cardinal is the guy that Dirk enjoys to hang out
easy there fella..
im giving you a example of how intact JJ is to the team like dirk is. just trying to let you know the front office wouldn’t let go of D- league player they brought from the ground up that quick. the core has to stay cause that is how you create a DYNASTY.
Oh please...
The only players that could create a dynasty with pieces around them are Dirk and Kidd and they are already too old for that.Barea is just a role bench player…he’s no dynasty material like Manu,Bowen were for the Spurs.We just must make smart moves to maximize Dirk’s and Kidd’s last chances for another trophy
huh?.. but they swept the lakers by using JJ effectively..?
stopped the youngest/ fastest guards in OKC. also took our talents to south beach owning up against lebron and wade. JJ is apart of the core if you like it or not, bud. just like jason terry was. the concept all season long was teamwork and sharing the ball to set up dirk. every player on the team fed off him to where we won 3 straight against miami. i understand if you have doubt on the little guy cause it was like that all season, so its nothing new but in the end there is a championship banner hanging in our arena now.
oh and if los mavs ended up in 2nd place this year. then you can make the argument on letting go of him. otherwise i dont want core to be separated. like what donnie nelson said this past week.. im paraphrasing “you cant listen to the people wanting to dismantle a team right after a championship”
i agree with the GM.
Nobody denied Barea's contribution
and I have nothing against him being in the team, as long as he finds a way to be productive.I don’t see the things working good for the Mavs with him as a starting PG.I hope he can prove me wrong but I think it will be sad day for the Mavs if Barea will be their premier PG option.
About Donnie saying that a championship core should remain untouched,that’s just a random media approach,because he can’t discuss his working plans with them.I’m sure he has already clear in his mind who is most likely to stay and who is most likely to go.He knows and we all know that not everything depends on our will.Just 2 years ago after the 2009 championship the Lakers traded their starter Ariza, and they still managed to repeat a year later.
I am very grateful to all the Mavs players that were part of this wonderful season, but I’m going to give to anyone of them more love than they deserve.For most of them basketball is just a business.
yeah, that is why the point guards can do it again.
see los mavs stuck with JJ since the 06 finals. with peja possibly retiring and roddy on a 50/ 50 scale of getting injured again. it looks like the GM could stick with the team in my opinion. there might be a couple free agents they could pick up. i could be thinking K- mart now that denver drafted jordan hamilton.
the biggest reason why Mavs.shouldn't let go
Barea aside of being the best money’s worth player on the team 1.8 mil. Is because he brings big earnings to the team as a marketing asset for Cuban. Plus if it wasn’t for the little guy, we wouldn’t have eliminated the Lakers.
by the.Doc on Jun 27, 2011 7:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Question is...will he get overpaid?
And how bad is Roddy’s foot?
He was well worth the 1.8 mil…he isn’t worth 6-7 million to be our backup PG.
Some team is going to start him. What they forget is that Dirk Nowitzki is the reason Barea got so much space. Barea never had a guy rotate toward him because teams would rather see him score than see Dirk score. The pick and roll with Dirk was so deadly because it was DIRK NOWITZKI who teams were scared of…not JJ Barea.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 28, 2011 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions
exactly
With Barea having the ball, Dirk was like a imaginary dark horse that the opponents were all the time aware, while Barea was the one taking advantage from that
Agreed
I read it best on another blog:
Some team will overpay JJ Barea…they forget that they can’t bring Dirk Nowitzki with him.
by ndnpride8806 on Jun 28, 2011 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions
go87 is the resident "special" poster here
by Alan Smithee on Jun 26, 2011 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I think.some people didn't saw how many pick and roll
Situations Barea created for the mavs. The guy is as quick as any point Guard in the NBA. If it wasn’t because of the change in the starting lineup that coach Carlisle made we’ll be weeping like the past 11 years. Don’t you saw that ball handling and breaking the.defensive pressure of the Heat was the biggest upgrade Barea gave.to the starting lineup. The little guy averaged 13 pts and 5ast as a starter. There are permanent starters that doesn’t average that kind.of numbers.
by the.Doc on Jun 27, 2011 7:34 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
i think most of these Barea haters are grounded to height issue.
but he’s an NBA star. so we’ve gotta deal with it. He’s got result to show.
We are the Champions! Give us the chance to defend the Ring with(most of) this lineup.
HOPE is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of men.
Are people forgetting?
JJ is the future. There’s a reason why the Mavs have held on to him for all these years. The goal for the Mavs is just to not overpay him.
that is the main issue I have with JJ
The goal for the Mavs is just to not overpay him.
I have said it before, will say it again. some team will throw a bunch of money at him….4-5 million I figure…Berea is awesome if you are paying him <2million per year, but 4-5 million? no thanks I will roll will Beaubois(younger, cheaper and can give similar production)
Now if he will stay at around 2 million…I would love to keep him….
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on Jun 28, 2011 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions
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