MMB Idol Audition 1: The Tyson Chandler Conundrum

Editor's Note: This is Submission One for our 'New Blogger' Contest. Read it, think about it, comment on it, and enjoy. Submission Two will be posted tomorrow.

I want to preface this by saying I love the job that Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban have done with this Team. Although most Fans would say that the only reason that Dallas has been as good as they have been is because Dirk=Thor. However this is still a team sport regardless of of the fact that this is a superstar driven League. Which brings us to my post today.

Donnie and Cuban both know that there are some major Changes looming on the Horizon. From the Hardening of the Cap, to even how much Players make, this Lockout is going to bring some major changes. What those changes will be will force Donnie's and Cuban's hand in how they are able to defend our championship. In fact the ONLY thing that I can say for certain is that Dirk will retire as a Maverick. Anything else is simply conjecture at this point. After the Jump lets look at one of the issues that  Dallas is facing, and explore a possibility that may solve it....

Still with me? Good. So lets dive into the Tyson Chandler Conundrum shall we?

 What to do with Tyson Chandler? Now most would say he is Priority #1, once the lockout ends. Frankly I agree with them. But here is the Issue- the Cap...right now Dallas has ~63 million dollars tied up in Salary for the 2011/2012 league year...this is without Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, Deshawn Stevenson, and JJ Berea. Now most experts agree that when the league gets this figured out we will probably see a hard cap set at ~50-55 million. that means that at best Dallas will be roughly 8 million over the cap. Now I am sure that there will be some sort of "amnesty clause" built into the new CBA that will allow the teams to get under the cap, either by restructuring deals or releasing players. So what does this have to do with Tyson? Everything. With Dallas so far over the Cap there is only one player that could be "released" that would enable Dallas to get far enough under the cap to resign Chandler. Dirk Nowtizki. At 19 million+ he will be taking up almost HALF of the available cap space. but lets face it, That will NEVER happen. IF Dallas were to Release Dirk, the year after Finally winning the Championship, well lets not go there.

So what to do? There is one thing....a trade. Now the rules will be different with the new CBA I am sure, but they shouldn't be too different. So what team A) has a player about to hit Free agency within the next couple of years, B)is way over the cap, and C) has shown that they are incapable of building a championship team, and D) is mired in so much debt that they are considered one of the least valuable franchises, even though they are perennial Championship contenders? If you guess the Hornets, then you while close and they do match up with the Criteria, I am talking about the Orlando Magic, and more specifically Dwight Howard. Currently the Magic have one of the highest payrolls in the league @ ~90 million. So what Do I propose? This or This. Now I know what you are saying. But Why would Orlando do this? For a couple of  reasons:

#1) Money. if you take out Terry(who is the only player that will not be a Free agent this coming year) Orlando will save 29 million dollars. Once Terry's Contract expires, that number jumps up to 40 million. But that is assuming that Orlando doesn't sign any of them. Now I feel certain that Tyson would be signed, and probably at some where around 14 million per year. which brings their net savings down to ~30 million which puts them at a payroll of ~44 million...well under the new cap limit. As far as the second scenario goes, the Moneyy saved is a lot less(only around 8 million the first year. However once Terry and Kidd "fall off" that right there would bring Orlando under the cap, while leaving them with a capable Center in Haywood and a Defensive All-star, that can match up with the Lebron James', and Carmelo Anthony's of the Eastern Conference.

#2) Getting something in return. Having  already stated that he won't be exercising his player option,  Dwight could leave Orlando as a FA in 2012 and the Magic get nothing for him in return. At least this way not only do they get out from under Arenas and Hedo's Contracts(which were bad moves to begin with, but that is neither here nor there), but they can say that they got a Championship Winning player in Tyson Chandler, who will be cheaper than Dwight, although Tyson is nowhere near the Offensive threat that Howard is. Plus I imagine that Cash, Picks and probably Ian Mahinmi would be involved....

As far as the second Scenario goes, That I put up just in case We are unable to trade FA's prior to the Season beginning, Which we could have if the owners and players had gotten an agreement done(site decorum Lockout)....Just sub in The respective players into the various reasons....I will say this though, the second trade is far less likely to happen due to the contracts involved....However, the players do represent an upgrade (except for Howard for Haywood...but still) Tery+Kidd> Arenas and Marion>Turkoglu....Brewer/Fernadez would have to get traded to "make the money work" so to speak....

Now bear in mind that all of this is based off of the last CBA(which no longer exists) so all of this may be moot....

So why should Dallas do this? Two words: Dwight Howard. Without a doubt one of the most dominant players in the league right now. Just look at his line: Averages 18 pts per game, on 57% shooting from the field, has avged 14 reb per game, and has averaged 2 blocks per game. Now I will say this..Dwight is very inconsistent at the FT line, having averaged just under 60% on 9 attempts per game. Well 60 % isn't too bad, and it wouldn't be if that is what you got...the main issue is that one game Dwight will hit 90-100% of his FT's then turn around the next game and brick 90% of them...But you know what? I could live with that....and Bear in Mind Dwight is only 26 years not only would Dallas be getting the ultimate compliment for Dirk, but would also be setting themselves up for LAD(Life after Dirk). and for the next few years Dallas would have arguably the Best Duo in the league...and as much has this is a moving to a Wing driven League, Dallas Winning the Championship showed one thing....You have to have a "post presence" to win....Getting Dwight would not only ease that burden off Dirk, but possibly extend his Career, while again setting Dallas up for L.A.D.

Now lets talk about Arenas and Hedo. Both are grossly over paid. Arenas is due 19 million and Hedo is due 11 million. Which wouldn't be so bad except that Arenas has a Player option worth up to 42 million over two years, and Hedo has up to 3 years worth up to 33million, with the Final (third year) being a player option(worth 12 million). Both are actually worse than the players that we would be giving up(click here), (and here for second trade) but there is a ray of Hope...What if Dallas brought them in and convinced them to not take their options? That would mean that Dallas would get Howard, and be able to  remove up to 30+ million off the books within two years. Now I imagine that to get that concession Cuban would have to basically guarantee them "extensions". but as long as they were with in reason(no more than the current MLE combined) I think Dallas could Swing that....Plus Gilbert and Hedo both would Fill voids in the Backup PG role(Arenas) and depth at SF(Turkoglu). 

Arenas put up numbers similar to JJ Berea, so that would be a direct swap, plus(though I have no stats to back this up, only common sense), Arenas should be less of a defensive black hole than JJ... Hedo is sort of the Anti Marion- will capable of putting up decent Numbers, won't be all that great Defensively.....

And Remember the Amnesty Clause? IF there is one, there are two perfect candidates for it in Arenas and Turkoglu....

Now just to be Clear: I am not advocating Trading Tyson Chandler. I would Love to resign him. However if the Opportunity were to came up to do this trade....If I was Donnie I wouldn't hesitate...Because it's Dwight Freaking Howard.

As Always I welcome any Comments or Critiques, so feel free to debate....Just know that I will defend my position, but look forward to hearing your thoughts.....

Reader Submitted

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