Should Mavs Take A Risk In Giving Odom Extended Minutes?

by j0Shi on Jan 12, 2012 5:16 PM CST in Opinion/Analysis

- DPA

Will they ever smile again?

Chris Mannix of SI.com wrote an article yesterday about the ongoing struggles of Lamar Odom in Dallas and finished his article with a quote that, using the words of Mavericks play-by-play announcer Mark Followill, "won't exactly set your mind at ease."

Can Odom find a way to succeed in the Mavericks' system?

"It's hard for me to say," Odom said. "I thought my game was equipped to play anywhere and everywhere. I'm not prepared, I guess, to play. I don't know if there is anything more to say."

His per minute/possession stats reflect his discomfort on the court pretty good. Fouling and turnovers increased and assists are down. He also takes a lot of threes, because sometimes he doesn't know what else to do with the ball, a behavior we all know a bit too good from Roddy. He shoots 11-of-30 in the Paint (36.7%) and is getting blocked 7.69% of the time, which leads the team behind Shawn Marion. The only bright spot of his game so far is that he is getting to the line at a reasonable rate, but his percentage there is down, too.

And what if the envisioned forward-nightmare-lineup for every opponent won't work even with Odom slowly getting into shape? Marion, Dirk and Odom together on the floor have resulted in a Defensive Efficiency of 161.66, getting outscored 33-48. In fact, all numbers from lineups consisting Dirk Nowitzki and Odom look, well, improvable.

Add to the ongoing concern that Odom right now is behind Vince Carter and Brian Cardinal in decisive game situations. That's not something you want to see. On a night where Carter posted a PER of -3.9 (and don't expect other metrics to look better), he nearly doubled Odom in minutes played. What does this say about "the hubbie?"

Carlisle apparently takes the same approach with Odom as he does with other players he doesn't entirely trust. They got their limited spot in the rotation but won't be on the court when it counts, like yesterday. Jeff van Gundy rooted for Lamar to hit the court late in the game yesterday and I tend to agree with him. Sometimes this 'play-when-you-produce-otherwise-sit' doesn't fare well simply because certain players/characters need playing time to develop chemistry and confidence on the court. Doc Rivers played Paul Pierce for 30 minutes although he is clearly out of shape and had completed a one-hour treadmill workout prior to the game, because the Celtics know they'll need Pierce going forward. And the Mavs will also need Lamar at the very least to help minimize Dirk's minutes. Although Dirk currently ranks pretty low at 65th in minutes per game (31.67), he played 38 yesterday in a close game and that could develop into an ongoing concern. Don't want to make too much out of a single game, but this season you may want to sit Dirk for at least 15 minutes even in a competitive close game. And with Odom this is perfectly possible if he'll somehow find his rhythm... you could even talk about a timeshare.

You don't have to be overly concerned right now. Hit the panic button if Odom plays like this by the time the All-Star Break is around the corner in February. Because the schedule will majorly toughen up with quality opponents and a 9-in-12 stretch in March. Until then it looks fairly manageable. The Mavs have a four game road-trip coming up in L.A. (playing both the Clippers and the Lakers), Utah and New Orleans but outside that I think now is the time to give Odom playing time even when not producing like anticipated. Looking at opponents it shouldn't result in any additional losses down the stretch.

Besides that it's not like Carlisle has a choice. Odom might be more or less expandable at this point of the season, but not in the near future. Because of the slow start into the season Carlisle stated he wants to win games now, but it's really not that dramatic. Dallas is one game behind the Spurs in their division and the arch-rivals will be without T.J. Ford and Manu Ginobili for a long time. The injuries are stockpiling throughout the whole league anyway and the Mavs are not in any sort of trouble to miss the playoffs.

So the time of taking a risk with playing Odom while not producing up to potential is now. The Mavs could benefit more in the future than they give up right now.

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Comments

I seriously thought LO will be over his slump by now...but he hasn't

I’m getting tired of waiting for him to do so and also, of waiting for that “break-out game.” Someone said yesterday that the Mavs are kind of a free-flowing team, they don’t use structured plays that often and I think that’s a good thing, of course. For that reason, LO may find it hard to adjust. However, it looks like VC and West are doing good so far and are even creating plays for themselves and other teammates. If LO is such a versatile player, he should have been the first to adjust.

LO may still be having emotional issues. The Mavs certainly have welcomed him as one of their own. They cheer when he gets a shot and encourage him when he doesn’t. What else does he want? I certainly would like him to get closer to the basket rather than chucking up 3s.

Dirk needs more rest and LO needs to step up and prove why he got the 6th man of the year award.

by Bona Castillo on Jan 12, 2012 7:47 PM CST reply actions

He’s a vet. He should get over those issues.

by zigg on Jan 12, 2012 8:17 PM CST reply actions

hello?

its not just odom…several players, including the german himself are still not playing up to their personal par…if thats the case, then why arent we losing still? depth, and lots of it…its turning out to be a slooooww process, but we’re gettin there.

by ArntorWindir on Jan 12, 2012 11:03 PM CST reply actions 2 recs