Top50 Players That Really Shouldn't Shoot That Much

by j0Shi on Jan 16, 2012 11:39 AM CST in Opinion/Analysis

The Mavericks opponent tonight got me into a nice little research about shot distribution in the NBA. Taking more shots than you should is a hot topic since Kobe decided he should go for 40 on every night. Against the Clippers on Saturday several guys went berserk over his shot selection on twitter as always and blamed him for the loss. But not so fast: Kobe had once again a gigantic USG% of 38.7%, but also scored a starter-best 1.18 Points Per Shot. So what? My numbers say, that if he indeed would have taken all the shots for the Lakers, they would have reached at least OT, if not more. OK, so this is according to PPS, but everybody easily understands that Kobe taking all shots wouldn't have resulted in Points = PPS*Team_Shots, because the defense would have quintuple-teamed him at some point. But it raised the question whether Kobe is really taking too many shot or if, adjusting to PPS in relation to the teammates PPS, he's not as selfish as suggested. Here's the data:

Rank	Team	Player	USG%	PPS	T_PPS	Skip%
1	DET	Austin Daye	25.06%	0.418	0.870	44.77%
2	POR	Marcus Camby	11.72%	0.573	0.968	37.83%
3	SAC	Travis Outlaw	17.36%	0.578	0.959	35.28%
4	BOS	Marquis Daniels	18.03%	0.561	0.930	35.04%
5	LAL	Derek Fisher	12.50%	0.633	0.975	32.08%
6	UTA	Earl Watson	12.87%	0.632	0.957	30.94%
7	NJN	Shawne Williams	16.41%	0.584	0.884	30.04%
8	OKC	Eric Maynor	18.38%	0.734	1.117	29.86%
9	TOR	James Johnson	15.33%	0.621	0.926	29.36%
10	TOR	Rasual Butler	15.47%	0.609	0.880	27.34%
11	DAL	Lamar Odom	22.70%	0.704	1.029	26.29%
12	MIN	Wesley Johnson	17.22%	0.614	0.877	26.17%
13	SAS	T.J. Ford	17.29%	0.722	1.027	25.89%
14	NYK	Toney Douglas	25.58%	0.690	1.009	25.60%
15	ORL	Jameer Nelson	16.51%	0.754	1.048	24.54%
16	GSW	Ekpe Udoh	16.61%	0.714	0.965	22.66%
17	POR	Raymond Felton	20.46%	0.721	0.985	22.57%
18	PHX	Grant Hill	20.04%	0.734	0.967	20.24%
19	OKC	Nazr Mohammed	15.42%	0.822	1.065	19.98%
20	SAS	James Anderson	19.99%	0.793	1.034	19.56%
21	NYK	Landry Fields	14.95%	0.746	0.958	19.48%
22	LAL	Metta World Peace	18.60%	0.694	0.899	19.39%
23	CHI	Omer Asik	12.00%	0.688	0.859	17.93%
24	MIN	Michael Beasley	24.65%	0.711	0.917	17.92%
25	CHI	Joakim Noah	16.04%	0.767	0.966	17.86%
26	NJN	Damion James	14.13%	0.644	0.807	17.84%
27	PHX	Ronnie Price	19.67%	0.775	0.970	16.83%
28	BOS	Jermaine O'Neal	14.08%	0.779	0.960	16.65%
29	NOH	Al-Farouq Aminu	14.66%	0.709	0.872	16.38%
30	NJN	Shelden Williams	13.34%	0.724	0.887	16.35%
31	SAC	J.J. Hickson	17.49%	0.713	0.876	15.85%
32	CHA	Corey Maggette	23.66%	0.749	0.933	15.78%
33	NYK	Iman Shumpert	23.40%	0.720	0.891	15.41%
34	WAS	John Wall	23.71%	0.666	0.822	15.18%
35	SAS	Gary Neal	25.76%	0.843	1.046	15.17%
36	GSW	Klay Thompson	18.92%	0.775	0.945	15.08%
37	DAL	Jason Kidd	10.31%	0.753	0.900	14.89%
38	MIA	Norris Cole	24.68%	0.784	0.966	14.88%
39	DEN	Andre Miller	17.89%	0.857	1.039	14.85%
40	MEM	Mike Conley	19.31%	0.831	0.996	13.79%
41	DAL	Rodrigue Beaubois	23.21%	0.771	0.925	13.30%
42	MIN	Darko Milicic	17.32%	0.729	0.855	12.51%
43	ORL	Glen Davis	22.47%	0.755	0.894	12.47%
44	HOU	Luis Scola	27.65%	0.829	0.989	12.25%
45	MIA	Shane Battier	9.31%	0.786	0.903	11.94%
46	CHA	Tyrus Thomas	16.12%	0.825	0.958	11.91%
47	SAC	John Salmons	15.69%	0.728	0.841	11.56%
48	OKC	Russell Westbrook	31.32%	0.854	1.016	11.53%
49	CHA	Boris Diaw	17.12%	0.771	0.889	11.24%
50	BOS	Rajon Rondo	22.84%	0.840	0.976	11.11%

Glossary & Comments

USG%: The percentage of the teams shots the player has taken
PPS: Points-Per-Shot
T_PPS: The teammates PPS while the player is on the floor
Skip%: My estimated percentage of shots the player should have skipped, because his teammates are so much better.

No Kobe? No Kobe!

That's because Kobe Bryant scores 0.980 PPS while his teammates combine for only 0.913. But here's room for improvement in my calculation. Of course the average of the teammates PPS can actually be lower than the players PPS, but nonetheless there could be another player with a better PPS out there, like Pau Gasol. This calculation suggests that Kobe should take 4.31% more shots, because he's better than the teammates average. But Pau Gasol should take 11.10% more shots, so when Kobe is teamed up with the Spaniard, #24 of course should give up shots to him. I might redo the calculation based on my lineup data and come up with something more specific in the future.

For Dallas we got Lamar, Kidd and Roddy in the list, which is not surprising. All of them have been subpar so far in shooting percentages and/or earning free throws and are surrounded by quality players in that regard.

Other intriguing names include Rookies Iman Shumpert and Cole, which take away shots from guys named LeBron, Wade, Melo and Amare.

Also Westbrook (takes away shots from Durant), Darko and Beasley (Love, Rubio) and so on.

After the jump we'll have a list for all teams and how much they would benefit from a better shot distribution: Take away shots from players that doesn't score that much and give them to players with a better PPS value. This is done by adjusting the USG% for PPS related to teammates PPS, then recalculate the new point-outcome and improvement for each team.

Have fun with it!

Team	PPS	AdjPPS	Improvement
NYK	0.886	0.919	3.77%
TOR	0.864	0.886	2.58%
WAS	0.796	0.817	2.57%
POR	0.923	0.945	2.35%
DET	0.846	0.866	2.31%
MIN	0.882	0.902	2.25%
SAS	0.957	0.979	2.25%
BOS	0.919	0.940	2.22%
OKC	0.978	0.997	1.94%
CHI	0.904	0.920	1.86%
SAC	0.825	0.840	1.80%
PHX	0.917	0.933	1.74%
IND	0.876	0.891	1.72%
ORL	0.966	0.982	1.69%
DAL	0.910	0.925	1.63%
UTA	0.907	0.921	1.54%
HOU	0.902	0.916	1.51%
NJN	0.884	0.895	1.30%
MIL	0.872	0.883	1.24%
DEN	0.982	0.993	1.16%
CHA	0.858	0.868	1.15%
LAC	0.959	0.969	1.11%
GSW	0.907	0.915	0.98%
MIA	0.954	0.962	0.91%
MEM	0.871	0.878	0.78%
LAL	0.906	0.913	0.73%
ATL	0.925	0.932	0.68%
CLE	0.887	0.893	0.67%
PHI	0.977	0.983	0.61%
NOH	0.851	0.856	0.58%

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Comments

cmon Marc Stein

he has the mavs at no 10 in his power rankings behind bloody indiana, denver, philadelphia, clippers okc wtf

by dimitrious on Jan 16, 2012 12:56 PM CST reply actions

I think it's fair enough

given the Mavs’ position last week. As the schedule toughens up for those teams and as the the team continue to find its groove, I expect our rank to go up slowly.

"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."

- Bill Russell

by Marjun Raposon on Jan 16, 2012 5:46 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

ya but, but, but the 5 game win streak the annihilation of some teams big win without Kidd

bah, i don’t mind 10 th place as much as indiana and philadelphia ahead of the mavs, that’s just silly

by dimitrious on Jan 16, 2012 6:53 PM CST up reply actions

How to balance shooting

Thank you for this article! I love the stats, and it is very interesting to look at who should be taking the shots, and when. It is an extremely difficult job for the coach to instruct players in when they should be shooting. It is also tough for the players to know what is statistically the best shot for them to take, and when in the shot clock they should take it, and if they should avoid taking it because there is player X on the floor with them. Suffice it to say there are a lot of variables.

Speaking of which, can you share with us the exact equation you used to decide how many shots a player should skip? I might want to modify the math.

In particular, every player (unless their PPS is actually ZERO) is a threat to score. And, this is good, because we want to keep the opponent’s defense honest. So, every player should shoot sometimes. But, the better scorers should take more shots than the poor scorers. Since there are only 5 players on the floor at a time, better scorers should take more than 20% of the shots, and poorer scorers should take less than 20% of the shots.

So, it is clear that if a player has a lower PPS than his teammates, and his USG is above 20, he is taking too many shots. Conversely, if his PPS is more than his teammates, and his USG is less than 20, he should take more shots. However, if his PPS is less than his teammates, and his USG is less than 20, we cannot really say anything about whether or not he should adjust his shot selection. He could be doing exactly what the coach wants and needs, based on the offensive game plan.

You are right in focusing in on these players, who should change their behavior:

Daye, Odom, Douglas, Felton, Hill, Beasley, Shumpert, Wall, Neal, Cole, Beaubois, Davis, Scola, Westbrook, Rondo.

Now, there are 2 ways they could change their behavior: (1) reduce the number of shots they take – pass the ball! or (2) improve their shooting. I think that Lamar Odom is hoping to shoot himself into shape; he is hoping his game will come around.

On the other hand, I think that you have made a mistake regarding Jason Kidd. He should probably be taking more shots. Yes, he is not as efficient a scorer as other team members, but he hardly ever shoots. In particular, he should take more layups! How many times have you seen him pass up an open layup in favor of giving up the ball to a teammate? A lot, right? Weren’t you pleasantly surprised when he took that layup against the Kings?

And, finally, Marcus Camby is probably just about right in his USG. He definitely should not reduce his shots by 38%! That would drop his USG to 7.28.

by day1 on Jan 16, 2012 1:08 PM CST reply actions

So proud of Roddy. 41!

@andytobo

by andytobo on Jan 16, 2012 1:12 PM CST reply actions

Fantastic analysis

John Wall was actually the big surprise for me. You’d think he’s the only thing holding that team together, but maybe his overcompensation is hurting them…

by lemonbrigade on Jan 16, 2012 2:22 PM CST reply actions

ahaha there's nothing holding that team together they're beyond bad

and such a collection of scrubs and selfish players they should be denied the first pick in next years draft, its a shame the craptors lost against them or the generals could’ve set all kinds of new records
the dream is still alive for 1-65 season though

by dimitrious on Jan 16, 2012 3:15 PM CST reply actions