Time To Split Up The Jasons?

by j0Shi on Jan 3, 2012 8:15 PM CST in Opinion/Analysis

This is an addition to Boweman55 excellent piece about Delonte West.

Last season Jason Kidd and Jason Terry worked their magic especially in crunch time with Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Tyson Chandler. They led the NBA in virtually every major clutch-category. This year? Not so much.

Besides all the other problems with the Center rotation and Lamar Odom not performing well thus far, the first games of the regular season presented a problem in an area that was supposed to be well tuned and unchanged from last year: The glorious "Jason" backcourt from the championship roster might not be able to repeat its magic. The reason is pretty simple: Without Chandler holding the middle and the defensive chemistry not quite there yet (or gone to Toronto with Dwane Casey), much more is asked from the perimeter defense and both Terry and Kidd can't provide that. They also couldn't last season, but it was masked by superior rotations and brilliant teamwork. Now that the Mavs are forced to rely on individual effort more than ever, the number pile up heavily against the "Jason" backcourt in the early going.

Ricky Rubio led the Minnesota offense to 170.78 Points per 100 Possessions (Offensive Efficiency) against the Jasons in the 4th (122.28 Overall) and he adds himself to a growing list of quick, young guards that abused the elderlies in the first games of this season. The Nuggets, led by Ty Lawson, posted an Offensive Efficiency of 144.02, outscoring them 49-32. Russell Westbrook and company (James "The Beard" Harden anyone?) outscored the Jasons 104-82 with an Efficiency of 141.28. Miami vs. the Jasons: 133.33. The only decent Defensive Efficiency came against the Raptors (102.08), who don't have that many players that cause problems breaking down your defense. Apart from that these are just horrible numbers.

Click through to see the defensive statistics of the Mavs guard combinations.

Backcourt	Poss	OffEff	DefEff	EffDiff	Opp. eFG%	Opp. FTA pp100	Opp. AND1 pp100	Opp. TOV pp100	Opp. AST_perc	Opp. Fastbreak pp100	Opp Paint pp100
The Jasons	192.00	106.80	132.33	-25.53	60.47	35.43	4.69	13.55	48.86	30.22	70.85
Kidd-West	145.70	96.78	98.84	-2.06	52.16	22.65	2.06	20.59	53.57	23.34	52.85
Terry-West	63.60	92.72	97.43	-4.71	53.06	23.57	1.57	25.14	37.50	14.14	59.72
Beaubois-Terry	55.20	99.60	88.74	10.86	44.32	23.54	1.81	23.54	38.89	14.49	61.57

* pp100 = per 100 Possessions

As you can see, the Jasons come out at the bottom in nearly every category, yet play the most minutes (and possessions) together. They allow more Fastbreak Points, Points in the Paint, Free Throws, AND1s, force lesser Turnovers and opponents shoot about 10% better.

The main problem is getting back on the defensive end after a missed shot attempt, block or steal. In that situation the Jasons Defensive Efficiency is 150.66 and opponents eFG% is 78.13.

I mean, it's really ugly.

Roddy looks especially solid when teamed up with Terry (in fact, that's the only pairing that actually outscored anyone over the first games) and works active on the defensive end, stays in front of opponents, force steals and stuff. He could teach Ricky Rubio a thing or two on the court. This lineup also provided the only run late in the second half in the Denver game, which otherwise was completely unwatchable if you're a Mavs fan. Roddy's pairing with Kidd and West also puts up good numbers, but the sample size isn't just there. But regardless of these numbers Carlisle seems unwilling to make him a regular rotation player right now and there are no signs that this will change in the near future. And at this point there's no need not to believe that Carlisle has his reasons for that.

Meanwhile West also clearly is defensive minded and even carries offensive load lately. He has the starting gig for now, but will disappear in crunch time and then the Jasons take over again.

So the big question is: If the numbers stay that way, will Carlisle slowly walk away from the Jasons? It's really hard, because that duo proved to be so reliable and important during the championship campaign and surely the Coach envisions these two to be the Mavs crunch time backcourt this season again. Also you should be careful at this state of the season (and the current sample size) to jump to conclusions. There will be better matchups for the Jasons like Toronto and the team has certainly other problems that affect their play.

But for now a backcourt consisting of either Roddy or West teamed up with only one Jason proves to be the better lineup because of the boost in perimeter defense. So if Carlisle plans to stick with them, the Jasons better get it together rather sooner than later. Otherwise those Rubios and Westbrooks and Lawsons will come after them night in and night out and it won't be pretty.

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Comments

I still remember that post in Failbook

Guy had a virus in his Windows comp (the Jasons not working that well in the first few games), and another guy commented he should switch to Mac OSX (splitting up the Jasons). The first guy replied that it’s like getting rejected by the girl in your first date and then suddenly opting to be gay and date other guys.

I'm reading this because it's interesting.

by entropy13 on Jan 3, 2012 11:02 PM CST reply actions 2 recs

So... do you like shaved or natural?

by Raptorel on Jan 4, 2012 6:12 AM CST up reply actions

Oh boy, this is going to be a tough one to swallow....

and given how much RC relies on experience, we might not see this happen at all. That said, the general impression I have was that Kidd really stepped up his defense when it came to crunch time in the playoffs….and I feel he will do the same this time. (You wouldn’t by any chance have any numbers to back this up, would you? )

I used to hate Jet jacking up random threes and going up for a pullup jumper on a fast break, he seemed like he could no wrong in the playoffs. This no doubt had a lot more to do with Dirk’s massive improvement in his ability to judge on when to demand/ shoot and pass the ball. And when Dirk passed more often than not, it resulted in a score (and hence the championship).

So what I am trying to saying is we really really need Jet’s ability to score as well as Kidd’s playmaking and defense. The craftiness of Kidd and his ability to give the offense a sense of direction cannot be replaced imho. It almost feels like he is the big brave general who calms everyone down and knows exactly what to do to get the team back on track.

If you are with me so far, then we are left with someone scoring as well as Jet and can draw the same amount of attention. Roddy anyone? I simply don’t see west being able to do this.

If Roddy cannot get there which is most likely what would happen, rather than break this combo, I would focus more on working the bigs to step up….and do what TC did on the defensive end. Doesn’t sound all that plausible either and this is why I think we will find it very very hard to repeat.

I had always felt that all we needed was to pair Dirk with a good center and we can go all the way. It happened although there were a lot more elements to play than I had originally suspected. There is always 3D :P

by lewstherin on Jan 4, 2012 6:40 AM CST reply actions

very small sample sizes, not time to change things yet.

I think any stats from these first six games are going to be borderline irrelevant 2 months from now. The team isn’t in shape, rotations are in flux, and the new guys don’t understand the Mavs’ system on either side of the court. These games have also been loaded with extremely athletic opponents that were bound to cause problems in this situation. Also, while pairings’ defensive ratings have some value, over 6 games, there’s a pretty good chance that the actions of their teammates could be just as responsible for the offensive and defensive swings in the data.

That said, if these figures hold up 4-5 weeks from now, it will be a legitimate concern (though you did gloss over the Jasons’ clear offensive superiority thus far). Roddy would need to step up before he gets more minutes, though. His win shares per 48 are lower than last year (West and VC double him, Kidd a little higher than that, and JET nearly quadruples him).

Why no pairings in your data that involve Vince Carter?

by fennsk1 on Jan 4, 2012 8:07 AM CST reply actions