First of all let's be honest that our 'grandpa' hasn't had his best start to the season so far. His unadjusted +/- is -28.27 for the season and take out any garbage time, which in this case is considered possessions in which one team was ahead by more than 15 in any quarter, it's still -18.93. WS48 (0.48) and WP48 (0.161) took a hit from last season averages but are still solid. A PER of 10.4 is the worst among guards on the roster though.
Kidd's shortcomings are mainly reduced to the defensive end. Opponents shoot 56.05% eFG, score 65.25 Points in the Paint pp100 and attempt 28.80 Free Throws pp100 when he is on the floor vs. 43.00% eFG, 44.49 Points in the Paint pp100 and 24.24 Free Throws Attempts pp100 when he's not. That's a testament to Kidd's defensive impact this season and it gets even worse when not teamed up with Delonte West.
But he keeps being the great facilitator of the offense: Without him the rate of assisted field goals drops from 68.90% to 52.94% and with that the shooting percentages fall apart as well.
Clock through to see the options in the backcourt behind Kidd.
- Rodrigue Beaubois: If Carlisle chooses to keep the overall rotation intact, the obvious choice is to put Roddy into the starting lineup like last night in San Antonio. Roddy leads the team in unadjusted Defensive +/- with -28.65 outside garbage time (meaning the defense allows 28.65 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor). Teamed up with West, who is third in Defensive +/- with -12.24 this is the best defensive backcourt the Mavs have. The downside is the offense: Roddy has managed to stay away from fouling, which is a huge part of his defensive success so far, but is still turnover-prone. In his rookies season he averaged 2.8 turnover per 36 minutes, last season 3.4, this season 3.6. That's not the development you want to see. Also his jumper is not there which makes it rough on the offensive end. But the starting lineup wasn't exactly an offensive force with Kidd in it and Roddy certainly has upside, so maybe the Mavs keep it this way and try to bring the scoring punch off the bench.
- Vince Carter: Especially against the Hornets I could see Carter starting over Marion because with West and Roddy in the backcourt you could pass on the additional defense from Marion and go with additional offense at the SF spot. VC leads the team in offensive +/- (+13.96 pp100) behind Dirk Nowitzki and because he posts good defensive numbers as well, he is also second in unadjusted +/- outside garbage time behind the German with +26.08.
- Jason Terry: A and Vince Carter backcourt off the bench is one thing that worked for the Mavs the entire season. They post a +38.58 Efficiency Differential with a Defensive Efficiency of 95.53 in that case. This backcourt is not as reliable defensively (although pretty good!) as Roddy and West, but makes up for it at the offensive end. Based on Efficiency Differential it's the best backcourt the Mavs have, but it has been better than the starting backcourt the whole season and knowing Carlisle he might want to keep the duo off the bench intact even with Kidd missing. If you put Terry into the starting lineup without Carter it should be noted that West/Terry haven't worked all season outside garbage time (-42.89 EffDiff on 120.11 DefEff), but Roddy/Terry have (+7.41 EffDiff on 85.95 DefEff).
- Dominique Jones: After his good showing in the first preseason game he fell off the clip rather fast. He couldn't back up his performance and has fallen completely out of the rotation. He has only played eight possessions outside garbage time and I wouldn't expect him to pick up any regular minutes at this point. Look for Roddy, West, Terry and Carter eating up all of Kidd's floor time.
So it comes down to the question whether Carlisle would like to keep the majority of the rotation intact at this point or not. Against a weak offense (Hornets 24th in OffEff with 99.15 and Eric Gordon is out) you can certainly make a point for the offensive minded Terry/Carter, but if Carlisle wants to bring them off the bench, it'll make most sense to just replace Kidd with Roddy. The Mavs would retain a good defensive starting lineup that will struggle to produce on the other end and would still bring their primary scoring punch off the bench.