The Unsung Hero: Brendan Haywood Is The Dallas Mavericks Best Player In Recent Weeks

by j0Shi on Feb 21, 2012 4:35 PM CST in Opinion/Analysis

Hold on: What?!?

But you read that right. Doing my tweets about interesting statistical bullets after every game, I realized that Brendan Haywood never puts up flashy stats, but he always performs at least solid, if not better. He usually is the Mavericks best rebounder on the field and is always in the Top3 or so in terms of defensive +/-. You won't notice his presence sometimes, but he is doing work night in and night out.

Let's begin with the starting units: Brendan Haywood is literally a big part of these lineups and among all teams, Dallas starting units rank 1st in the league in Efficiency Differential (+17.48), Defensive Efficiency (88.12), Defensive Rebounding Percentage (79.37%), Opponents Average 2FG Shot Distance (10.45 feet) and Opponents Assist/Turnover-Ratio (0.97). That's remarkable even without mentioning that last years starting unit also was a force defensively, but couldn't outscore anybody.

More than that, Haywood is part of the two best starting groups of the league. From all starting units throughout the league that played at least 100 Possessions together, the current lineup of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki and Brendan Haywood ranks 1st in terms of EffDiff (+40.98 Points Per 100 Possessions) and the lineup the Mavericks have used in Kidd's absence consisting of Delonte West, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki and Brendan Haywood ranks 2nd (+35.88). Although Haywood is only a small part of what the Mavs do offensively, it cannot be denied that he surely is a silent contributor of the success these units have and had.

Moving on to personal stats, Haywood has put together a string of strong performances in recent weeks. Starting with January, 18th - a game at the Staples Center vs. the Clippers - he leads the team in WP48 (0.220), TS% (58.55% - despite his poor FT shooting), TRB% (16.67%) and TOV P100 (1.94) and is second in WS48 (0.186) and unadjusted +/- (+15.81 Points Per 100 Possessions when he is on the floor vs. off the floor). He only averages a PER of 14.91, but that's a reflection of his lack of scoring and he's obviously not asked to carry the offense at all.

The best part of the big man's play is consistency, though. The Mavericks can rely on him night in and night out. Looking through the gamelogs, he really only had three bad games since January, 18th. Otherwise, he has constantly put up a WS48/WP48 >0.200 and a PER of at least 13, making him the most consistent player on the roster. In a season in which the condensed schedule leads to varying performances from game to game throughout the complete roster, Haywood provides stability at the important center position.

So while his achievements might be overshadowed by the impact of Brandan Wright or the stellar play of Dirk Nowitzki lately, Haywood has stepped in just nicely after the departure of Tyson Chandler. He has quietly emerged as one of the better centers in this league, ranking 11th in WS48 and WP48 since January 18th among all players that played at least 200 minutes at that position.

He has come a long way from being the Mavericks third best center during their Championship campaign last year and proves to be what the franchise thought he would be when signing him to a six-year $55 million dollar deal in 2010.

Hats off to the Mavericks best player in recent weeks!

Please note, that WS48 refers to WinShares Per 48 Minutes (a metric developed by Bill James - more to be found on www.basketball-reference.com) and WP48 to WinsProduced Per 48 Minutes (more to be found on www.wagesofwins.com). I currently only use an estimation for WP48, but it's pretty close.

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Comments

That's no surprise

Haywood’s auditioning for another team next year as he’s going to get amnestied after the season. He played great before we extended him in ‘10, and he’s in the same situation now essentially being in a contract year. If we amnesty Haywood and subsequently can’t get DH and DW, wouldn’t mind him back but on a reduced contract which he probably wouldn’t go for.

"I'm a unitard!" - Ralph Wiggum

by stupidsexyflanders on Feb 21, 2012 6:28 PM CST reply actions

maybe he would take another contract next season.

he will be 33 around that time. also it can benefit him greatly if he was Dwight Howards backup. that’d be a great combination right there.

by go87 on Feb 21, 2012 6:41 PM CST up reply actions

That'd be great

but the pickings among FA C’s are going to be pretty slim this offseason so it’ll be a sellers’ market. Lots of teams with capspace too that are also in need of a C, so Haywood is bound to get offered a starting job and a decent contract from someone else. I’d be fine with Mahinmi and Wright backing up the C spot if we manage to sign Howard, or we could go for a FA upgrade over Haywood if we can’t get Howard like Hawes or maybe Kaman.

"I'm a unitard!" - Ralph Wiggum

by stupidsexyflanders on Feb 21, 2012 7:35 PM CST up reply actions

noybe

first of all, he has value
second of all, you can’t amnesty a player and then sign him. you’d have to wait a year. See Arenas, Magic.

"Mais put… Il est fou ce gars!" - French Jesus about Jewish Ice-T

by DOH on Feb 22, 2012 3:05 AM CST up reply actions

Tks for the info.

So amnesty Haywood and you’ve basically absolutely committed to massive roster turnover – no take-backs – no half-hearted stuff – you’re going all the way. I can’t wait to see how fearless Cuban is this offseason.

"I'm a unitard!" - Ralph Wiggum

by stupidsexyflanders on Feb 22, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

is there any definitive report on what the salary cap will be next year?

Hoopshype is not the end all be all of salary info, but it would seem possible, if not difficult, that Dallas could hand out a max contract without using/trading Haywood or Marion. It would leave them with very little flexibility, of course.

by Alan Smithee on Feb 22, 2012 8:00 PM CST up reply actions

you know I never really understood all the Haywood Hate

and got all the Chandler Love..yes Chandler is a very good Player, but comparing the two on a per game basis, I always thought that Haywood wasn’t that big of a downgrade from Chandler.

and in some ways he is even a little better than Chandler….while I didn’t agree with the contract, he has shown that he is definitely a top Center, and while Offensively not on DW level, defensively he is probably 85-90% of what Howard brings….

that being said though, if Dallas can get DW and has to Amesty Haywood to do so…you do it……

Here’s a theoretical play from 2010: Snap. Tony takes 7 step drop. Tony looks left at Miles, who is doubled, and looks right to where Roy Williams should be…but instead sees Colombo on his back and a Defensive End foaming at the mouth jumping over Marc’s carcass. Tony proceeds to run like hell and look for Witten
-by CotySaxman on Jul 11, 2011 7:50 AM PDT

Now, if somebody doesn’t agree with that, that’s cool. I also don’t agree with the fact that I don’t have $10 million in my bank account. But the fact that I don’t agree with it doesn’t make it any less true.
by One.Cool.Customer on Dec 23, 2010 12:00 AM PST

by I am Ironman!!! on Feb 22, 2012 8:58 AM CST reply actions

if he could get back to even just below his career norm FT%

he would be an outstanding player: the guy I thought they were getting at the end of ‘09-’10.

He’s at 45% now, a shade under 60% for his career, and if he could get into mid-50’s territory, I could live with it. It is hard to overstate what a drag that is on his value, and the effectiveness of the overall offense. Dominant scorers like Shaq and swiss-army-knife guys like Ben Wallace could get away with that and still deserve big contracts. Haywood is not at that level.

That being said, 45% is unbelievably, a significant improvement over where he was last year, and his defensive effort is absolutely there.

My opinion, which others might not share, is that Haywood is at Chandler’s level defensively. He is not quite elite in pick and roll situations, and by most accounts probably isn’t the leader and communicator Chandler is, but he is also a little better defending the post. I maintain that Chandler’s biggest contribution, and what made he so great, was that he was such an efficient offensive player, running the floor, cutting to the basket, taking only shots he knew he could make, and, biggest of all, making his %&$* free throws.

by Alan Smithee on Feb 22, 2012 7:55 PM CST up reply actions

i might be mistaken...

but wasnt haywood in the high 50’s on free throws in the beginning of the season last year and then ended up in the mid 30’s?…at 45%, hes still got plenty more opportunies ahead to repeat as the league’s worst FT shooter…its pretty sad when you have to pray for damage control because theres such little hope for improvement….

by ArntorWindir on Feb 22, 2012 9:31 PM CST up reply actions

last year

Haywood was 1 for his first 11 on FT’s, and shot 27% in the month of November. It was a historically bad season, the basketball equivalent of a Steve Blass like mental breakdown.

by Alan Smithee on Feb 22, 2012 10:35 PM CST up reply actions