MMB's Updated List Of Players That Shouldn't Shoot That Much

Guess what: The Los Angeles Lakers are in town again and that's a great cause to look into the "Hero Ball" topic again. I tried to approach the issue here, but in the end it was not very satisfying to be honest. I calculated a Skip%, which pointed out the percentage of shots a player should skip because his teammates are that much better (efficiency-wise). I already pointed out some flaws of that approach, because I simply compared the players PPS (points per shot) and his teammates PPS. That led to Kobe Bryant not making the Top50, because he scored 0.980 PPS while his teammates combined for 0.913. The issue here is that he is better than the "average" teammate, but we all know that Andrew Bynum and Paul Gasol are much more efficient, so you would think that the Lakers should indeed give more shots to them.

I promised to come back with a better approach based on lineup data and finally enough games have been played to have a (somewhat) reliable sample. I wanted to use lineups that have put up a minimum of 50 shots and back then there were like 3-5 lineups for each team to work with. I also figured each player within a lineup should have a minimum of 10 shots. The whole thing is still not very robust, we need a much larger sample, so draw conclusions carefully.

The approach is really simple: Within a given lineup, every player has a USG% (the % of team possessions he shot the ball, went to the FT line or turned it over) and a PPS value. A player that scores more effectively (higher PPS) should get more shots (higher USG%) and vice versa. I squared the PPS value of every player and redistributed the available shots in the lineup based on that. The best shot distribution obviously is to give all shots to the player who scores the most PPS, but that's not realistic because at some point teams will start to quadruple-team him. So I went with PPS*PPS here, which gives players with a higher PPS slightly more shots. I also ruled out putbacks and any fastbreak baskets as well as the center position at all. Centers have high PPS values, because they score around the basket on mostly assisted FGs that are created by other players. There are exceptions like Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat or Andrew Bynum, but the position generally distorts the results, so they're out until I find a solution.

On average, 1542 shot were redistributed per team, the fewest for the Hornets (763), the most for the Thunder (2766). 38164 points could have turned into 41717 (an average raise of 9.31%), if the teams would have used their most efficient player in the given lineup more frequently. You'll find a list of 161 players (100+ shots) after the jump, the data suggests that 89 should shoot less, 72 more. USG% is the original usage rate, AdjUSG% the redistributed and Change% the percentage of shots the player should drop or add. Have fun with it.

So we got Kobe in the Top10, which is, after all, not surprising. The player that should get a fair amount of his shots is Gasol (and probably Bynum, but no C's as I've pointed out above). A very surprising appearance for Parker in my eyes, but he is surrounded by that much 3-point talent that the data suggests he should shoot less. Of course he creates most of the shots and therefore digs his own grave here, which is a good example why you should adjust for assisted field goals in some way. Another example: Battier and Korver (and Kidd for Dallas) top the list of guys who should shoot more. For the most part it makes sense though, but as said above: draw conclusions carefully and within reasonable context.

Rank Team Player USG% AdjUSG% Change%
1 HOU Goran Dragic 23.80% 12.86% -45.98%
2 BOS Rajon Rondo 22.27% 12.12% -45.55%
3 SAS Tony Parker 31.56% 18.20% -42.35%
4 ORL Hedo Turkoglu 27.93% 16.47% -41.03%
5 WAS Jordan Crawford 31.29% 19.31% -38.31%
6 ATL Josh Smith 33.19% 20.70% -37.63%
7 TOR DeMar DeRozan 34.57% 22.04% -36.24%
8 GSW Nate Robinson 28.74% 18.54% -35.49%
9 LAL Kobe Bryant 43.24% 27.98% -35.28%
10 MIN Ricky Rubio 24.61% 16.01% -34.94%
11 OKC Russell Westbrook 35.32% 23.01% -34.84%
12 NYK Iman Shumpert 20.65% 13.49% -34.68%
13 CHA Corey Maggette 32.48% 21.23% -34.64%
14 CHI Derrick Rose 33.91% 22.45% -33.80%
15 GSW Monta Ellis 33.36% 22.21% -33.44%
16 POR Raymond Felton 25.19% 16.93% -32.76%
17 MEM Rudy Gay 32.54% 22.30% -31.46%
18 CHA Tyrus Thomas 24.95% 17.23% -30.96%
19 NYK Jeremy Lin 28.16% 19.47% -30.88%
20 SAC Tyreke Evans 30.63% 21.18% -30.84%
21 ORL Jameer Nelson 26.24% 18.27% -30.35%
22 HOU Luis Scola 33.31% 23.33% -29.95%
23 CHI Richard Hamilton 25.80% 18.26% -29.24%
24 NYK Carmelo Anthony 32.58% 23.61% -27.53%
25 MIA Dwyane Wade 34.21% 25.00% -26.93%
26 NJN Deron Williams 36.92% 27.14% -26.48%
27 DEN Andre Miller 28.19% 20.85% -26.02%
28 MIA Norris Cole 26.99% 19.97% -26.01%
29 DET Brandon Knight 25.33% 18.92% -25.31%
30 DAL Delonte West 22.83% 17.21% -24.59%
31 MIL Brandon Jennings 28.93% 21.83% -24.52%
32 IND Danny Granger 32.62% 24.68% -24.35%
33 WAS John Wall 25.18% 19.07% -24.29%
34 DAL Lamar Odom 25.97% 19.69% -24.21%
35 MIA LeBron James 30.78% 23.58% -23.40%
36 POR Jamal Crawford 32.72% 25.39% -22.39%
37 MIA Chris Bosh 30.49% 24.27% -20.42%
38 SAS DeJuan Blair 26.85% 21.59% -19.59%
39 LAC Randy Foye 24.31% 19.56% -19.55%
40 DAL Vince Carter 26.57% 21.47% -19.21%
41 CLE Kyrie Irving 32.30% 26.27% -18.67%
42 NOH Trevor Ariza 22.93% 18.72% -18.38%
43 UTA Paul Millsap 31.89% 26.06% -18.30%
44 GSW Klay Thompson 32.33% 26.69% -17.46%
45 OKC Kevin Durant 35.49% 29.37% -17.24%
46 PHI Jrue Holiday 27.34% 22.74% -16.82%
47 UTA Devin Harris 25.43% 21.29% -16.27%
48 UTA Gordon Hayward 21.88% 18.33% -16.25%
49 LAL Steve Blake 16.92% 14.27% -15.66%
50 PHX Grant Hill 24.95% 21.13% -15.30%
51 LAC Blake Griffin 30.43% 25.96% -14.69%
52 HOU Kevin Martin 28.41% 24.39% -14.14%
53 GSW Stephen Curry 24.53% 21.32% -13.10%
54 CLE Ramon Sessions 30.18% 26.36% -12.64%
55 PHX Channing Frye 26.74% 23.40% -12.51%
56 MEM O.J. Mayo 25.79% 22.60% -12.36%
57 MEM Tony Allen 22.12% 19.39% -12.34%
58 LAC Caron Butler 24.28% 21.41% -11.83%
59 PHI Lou Williams 35.91% 31.93% -11.08%
60 DEN Arron Afflalo 22.15% 19.70% -11.06%
61 CHI Luol Deng 22.56% 20.16% -10.64%
62 CLE Tristan Thompson 26.76% 24.08% -10.02%
63 PHI Evan Turner 23.45% 21.11% -9.98%
64 POR Gerald Wallace 19.43% 17.58% -9.50%
65 UTA Josh Howard 28.61% 26.05% -8.96%
66 HOU Kyle Lowry 22.70% 20.67% -8.91%
67 CHI Carlos Boozer 29.62% 27.00% -8.84%
68 CLE Antawn Jamison 31.27% 28.69% -8.26%
69 ORL Jason Richardson 25.84% 23.71% -8.23%
70 NOH Jarrett Jack 29.02% 26.65% -8.16%
71 MIN Kevin Love 35.00% 32.28% -7.78%
72 IND Darren Collison 20.72% 19.28% -6.96%
73 PHX Markieff Morris 25.28% 23.70% -6.26%
74 MIN Wesley Johnson 19.70% 18.53% -5.97%
75 PHX Steve Nash 27.17% 25.68% -5.46%
76 WAS Nick Young 32.02% 30.70% -4.11%
77 MIL Shaun Livingston 24.46% 23.47% -4.03%
78 DET Tayshaun Prince 26.26% 25.44% -3.12%
79 BOS Paul Pierce 31.28% 30.35% -2.97%
80 POR LaMarcus Aldridge 34.52% 33.51% -2.91%
81 DEN Ty Lawson 26.57% 25.88% -2.60%
82 CHI C.J. Watson 29.61% 28.92% -2.30%
83 MIL Carlos Delfino 23.28% 22.77% -2.23%
84 NOH Marco Belinelli 25.98% 25.60% -1.46%
85 UTA C.J. Miles 30.08% 29.65% -1.43%
86 PHI Elton Brand 26.08% 25.74% -1.30%
87 CHA D.J. Augustin 23.38% 23.13% -1.03%
88 IND David West 27.78% 27.57% -0.74%
89 GSW David Lee 27.62% 27.54% -0.31%
90 SAC Isaiah Thomas 27.57% 27.67% 0.36%
91 NYK Amare Stoudemire 29.26% 29.52% 0.86%
92 ATL Joe Johnson 29.74% 30.02% 0.92%
93 DAL Dirk Nowitzki 34.76% 35.11% 1.00%
94 CHA Gerald Henderson 26.81% 27.18% 1.38%
95 DET Rodney Stuckey 29.76% 30.40% 2.17%
96 MIA Udonis Haslem 18.10% 18.50% 2.21%
97 NJN Anthony Morrow 22.26% 22.95% 3.11%
98 PHI Thaddeus Young 25.87% 26.76% 3.42%
99 LAL Metta World Peace 16.39% 17.19% 4.88%
100 DAL Jason Terry 27.10% 28.57% 5.45%
101 SAC Jason Thompson 18.64% 19.82% 6.33%
102 PHI Andre Iguodala 20.54% 22.06% 7.42%
103 DET Ben Gordon 26.80% 29.07% 8.45%
104 BOS Kevin Garnett 31.50% 34.27% 8.82%
105 DET Jason Maxiell 22.25% 24.22% 8.87%
106 CLE Omri Casspi 20.22% 22.34% 10.49%
107 LAC Chris Paul 24.96% 27.64% 10.74%
108 CHA Kemba Walker 26.18% 29.00% 10.79%
109 MEM Marreese Speights 24.84% 27.85% 12.12%
110 DAL Shawn Marion 21.42% 24.07% 12.40%
111 OKC James Harden 22.67% 25.54% 12.67%
112 NJN Kris Humphries 24.31% 27.75% 14.15%
113 BOS Brandon Bass 22.10% 25.31% 14.52%
114 CHI Taj Gibson 22.19% 25.43% 14.61%
115 IND Paul George 22.02% 25.39% 15.33%
116 IND Tyler Hansbrough 28.71% 33.30% 15.99%
117 TOR Amir Johnson 20.09% 23.49% 16.93%
118 CLE Daniel Gibson 19.53% 22.90% 17.29%
119 NJN MarShon Brooks 24.56% 28.84% 17.43%
120 DEN Al Harrington 26.54% 31.17% 17.47%
121 UTA Derrick Favors 28.75% 34.49% 19.95%
122 LAL Derek Fisher 17.39% 20.93% 20.36%
123 ORL J.J. Redick 25.68% 31.19% 21.46%
124 WAS Trevor Booker 22.38% 27.23% 21.63%
125 HOU Chase Budinger 23.08% 28.10% 21.76%
126 MEM Mike Conley 23.97% 29.24% 22.02%
127 ATL Jeff Teague 20.09% 24.54% 22.13%
128 TOR Jose Calderon 22.23% 27.28% 22.75%
129 SAC John Salmons 21.15% 26.12% 23.48%
130 SAC Marcus Thornton 26.83% 33.24% 23.87%
131 TOR James Johnson 22.53% 27.98% 24.16%
132 CLE Anthony Parker 16.92% 21.02% 24.22%
133 BOS Ray Allen 22.76% 28.98% 27.32%
134 LAL Matt Barnes 18.17% 23.24% 27.91%
135 DET Jonas Jerebko 22.89% 29.55% 29.08%
136 POR Nicolas Batum 22.68% 29.41% 29.69%
137 LAC Mo Williams 22.49% 29.41% 30.77%
138 CHI Ronnie Brewer 16.78% 22.84% 36.12%
139 OKC Serge Ibaka 16.71% 23.08% 38.11%
140 ATL Marvin Williams 19.54% 27.07% 38.52%
141 LAC Chauncey Billups 22.65% 31.40% 38.65%
142 GSW Dorell Wright 18.34% 25.45% 38.75%
143 DAL Jason Kidd 14.21% 19.77% 39.12%
144 CLE Alonzo Gee 18.84% 26.37% 39.95%
145 LAL Pau Gasol 26.72% 37.44% 40.14%
146 SAS Richard Jefferson 22.64% 32.58% 43.94%
147 POR Wesley Matthews 20.10% 29.20% 45.25%
148 DEN Danilo Gallinari 23.45% 34.12% 45.51%
149 PHX Jared Dudley 21.27% 31.51% 48.17%
150 OKC Daequan Cook 15.62% 23.24% 48.78%
151 ORL Ryan Anderson 25.61% 38.60% 50.73%
152 MIA Mario Chalmers 17.18% 26.33% 53.26%
153 MIN Luke Ridnour 19.78% 31.04% 56.94%
154 HOU Courtney Lee 20.08% 33.97% 69.20%
155 PHI Jodie Meeks 15.76% 27.69% 75.63%
156 MIL Ersan Ilyasova 24.31% 43.26% 77.96%
157 HOU Chandler Parsons 17.78% 32.05% 80.23%
158 NYK Landry Fields 16.40% 31.66% 93.11%
159 MIA Shane Battier 13.90% 29.75% 113.94%
160 CHI Kyle Korver 17.85% 40.58% 127.28%
161 UTA Raja Bell 16.00% 36.92% 130.81%

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