It's Not Time To Panic About Deron/ Maybe It's Always Been Time to Panic About Deron



As you can read below, a couple of articles came out today, including this one by Royce Young and this one by Sam Amick , quoting an anonymous source who is pretty sure Deron wants to stay in Brooklyn, and that the Lakers are on the list, too. Should you believe this anonymous source?


You should not. We know this because we all scrupulously adhere to the dictum that insanity is to do the same thing over again and expect a different result. We remember anonymous and not-anonymous sources telling us where LeBron was going two years ago, too. This is not real news.

That doesn’t mean it’s useless.

The Mavericks lost to the Nets this year. They did it because Brook Lopez, recently returned from injury, shortly going back to injury, scored 9 million points on Not-Tyson-Chandler. So do I believe that Deron thinks, as the source was quoted as saying, that there’s no "longevity" in Dallas?

Of course I believe that Deron has that on his mind. Because Deron Williams is a person and has eyes. You could plausibly make the argument that the Nets, with Deron, Lopez, Gerald Wallace, a draft pick that is potentially very high, and the ability to offer guys like Kris Humphries and Gerald Green more money than everyone else (I am aware that this is not exactly Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), are significantly likely to have a brighter future than the Mavericks who don’t actually want a single player on their roster besides Dirk.

On the other hand, you don’t have to make an argument at all, you can simply say 1) The Mavs, struggle as they did, were much better than the Nets last year and 2)Of course the Mavs have longevity—if they sign Deron Williams. If Steve Nash (38) and Tim Duncan(36) are still playing at a high level, tell me why Dirk (33) can’t be when Deron Williams finishes his contract in 4 years? Deron Williams couldn’t tell you either.

Here are the facts and the only thing that matters until July 1st:

---The Mavericks, no matter what they do, will not have an exorbitant amount of cap space next year. As pointed out in a terrific article by Jammasterj14 yesterday, even if the Mavs waive Haywood and trade Lamar, they will only have something like 18-20 mil in cap space and Deron Williams will be just over 17 mil. The cap COULD be abnormally high this year. That would be very good news for the Mavs.

---People say trades will help clear cap space, but do not bet on it. Any trades the Mavs make will have to be like the Corey Brewer and Rudy Fernandez for literally nothing trade last year—they will only make the Mavericks worse in the short term. And with only Dirk, Marion, Roddy, DoJo, Azubuike, Wright and Vince on the roster for next year they are barely, and I mean barely, hanging on to a package that could entice anybody.They COULD trade Shawn Marion, whose contract, unfortunately for him and the Mavericks, runs through 2014. But, as noted, they couldn't trade him for anybody they'd owe money, and they're not selling Deron on Dirk, Roddo, Dojo, Azubuike, Wright and Vince. They're also not D-ing anybody up.

---They Mavericks have a decent draft pick this year for the first time in a while. We'll see what they do with it--I'm hoping for a center.

---The difference between the Mavericks and the Heat, for those of you harboring hopes of Dwight Howard, is a number, 5 million dollars, and a year, 2013-2014. When LeBron, Wade and Bosh became Heatles, they were earlier in their careers than Dirk is currently, so eligible for different contracts, so when they took less money it was in the neighborhood of 15 mil each, while when Dirk took less money it was in the neighborhood of 20 mil. So, 5 mil. It’s not quite that much, but it’s close. You add that to the fact that the cap gets really punitive in 2013-2014 and it does not look good for the Mavs. It does not, in fact, look good for anybody with old (and expensive) stars.

---Free Agency is both the best and worst way to improve your team. It is the only way to get players in their prime without giving something up. However, unlike drafting and trading, where the players you get are immediately yours and don’t get a say in the matter, FAs can be wined or dined by anybody. The Nets can offer more money, more years. If they get a really high draft pick—the pick they gave Portland is top 3 protected—they’re going to be able to offer a really enticing package. And just so you know, if they don’t, then Portland has whatever draft pick they DID get, LaMarcus Aldridge, and a lot of cap space, so if you’re looking for a dark horse, there it is.

---Finally, despite all the bad news, this is the second year in a row that maybe the top free agent on the market is at least INTERESTED in Dallas SPECIFICALLY, last year being Tyson Chandler. So keep your hopes up and your eyes open. Money does not favor the Mavs. Organization, Dirk, even recent success do. It'll depend on how much Deron believes in the Mavericks' future, and what they can promise him this year and next--and nothing else.

There is no news that is going to be news before July 1st, other than who drafts where, but there’s going to be a lot of news that sounds like it.

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