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Mavs Best Case Scenario

Mavericks Best Case Scenarios - #1

In the last few weeks, we have all been reviewing different scenarios, including free agency, trades, amnesty, and the draft. Thanks to all of you, I have been reading all about free agents, restricted free agents, trades, Dwill, the draft and so much more. Several of you have written insightful in depth articles on available players at each position.


Now that we have all of this speculative information, what is the best case scenario for the Mavs?

There are 2 goals for the Mavs in my opinion.


1. To be a contender next year and maximize Dirk's remaining years

2. To maintain a competitive team for the future (i.e. to avoid a rebuilding phase)

I shall adhere to the following assumptions and boundary conditions to achieve this goal,

1. The salary cap will not be exceeded
2. The Mavs front office will be able to make reasonably favorable trades

3. The salary cap will be 60 Million next year

The Mavs Roster as it stands today,

Number

Player

2012/13

1

Dirk Nowitzki

$ 20,907,128

2

Jason Terry

$ 0

3

Lamar Odom

$ 8,200,000

4

Jason Kidd

$ 0

5

Shawn Marion

$ 8,646,364

6

Brendan Haywood

$ 8,349,000

7

Vince Carter

$ 3,120,000

8

Brian Cardinal

$ 0

9

Rodrigue Beaubois

$ 2,227,332

10

Dominique Jones

$ 1,276,560

11

Delonte West

$ 0

12

Brandan Wright

$ 947,907

13

Ian Mahinmi

$ 0

14

Sean Williams

$ 0

15

Yi Jianlian

$ 0

16

Kelenna Azubuike

$ 992,680

Total

$ 54,666,971

Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, Brendan Wright & Kelenna Azubuike have team options. Players that have a ‘0’ in front of them are now free agents. So for clarity, I shall remove them from future tables.


Trading begins

The Mavs trade lamar Odom, DoJo & VC for a late 1st /early second draft pick. It is debatable if the three of them are worth that or not. However since this is a best case scenario, we assume that the MAVS front office makes it happen.

June 29th - the draft


  • The Mavs draft Meyers Leonard - Center

  • The Mavs draft John Jenkins – SG

  • The Mavs draft small forward – to send to Europe



July 1st - free agency

  • The Mavs amnesty Brendan Haywood

  • The Mavs sign Deron Williams to a max contract.

  • The Mavs sign Jason Kidd to 2 year vet minimum deal, year 2 partially guaranteed.

  • The Mavs sign Courtney Lee 4mill/yr

    After all these signings here is what the salary structure looks like the following,

Number

Player

2012/13

1

Dirk

$ 20,907,128.00

2

Matrix

$ 8,646,364.00

3

Roddy

$ 2,227,332.00

4

Azubuike

$ 992,680.00

5

Wright

$ 947,907.00

6

D-Will

$ 17,177,795.00

7

Courtney Lee

$ 4,000,000.00

8

2012 Pick - Meyers Leonard

$ 1,563,120.00

9

Jason Kidd

$ 1,352,181.00

10

John Jenkins - late 1st pick

$ 850,000.00

11

Nick Calathes

$ 473,604.00

12

Cap Hold

$ 473,604.00

13

$ -

14

$ -

15

$ -

16

Total

$ 59,611,715.00

At this point the Mavs use their mid-level exception to sign Omar Asik for 4 Mill/yr. The Mavs fill the roster with other veterans at the veteran minimum.

So after this off season, this is what we start the season with,

Starters

PG – Deron Williams

SG – Courtney Lee

SF – Shawn Marion

PF – Dirk Nowitzki

Center – Omar Asik

Backups

PG – Jason Kidd, Roddy B

SG – John Jenkins, Nick Calathes
SF – Azubuike, Veteran Minimum

PF – Brendan Wright, Veteran Minimum

Center – Meyers Leonard, Hashim Thabeet (vet minimum)

Analysis of this Lineup

This starting lineup is very solid defensively; D-Will, Courtney Lee, Marion & Asik are all very good defenders. Dirk is also decent as a team defender. This lineup also has decent size and athleticism across the board.

Offensively, Dirk & D-Will will have to be the main scorers. Courtney Lee & Shawn Marion will chip in another 10 a piece; Asik will likely be about 6-8 pts range. The bench is where I feel the strength of this lineup exists. The second unit is capable of scoring and defending, Jason Kidd can execute the offense, and will have Roddy, Jenkins, Calathes & Azubuike to score. I expect Brandon Wright and Meyers Leonard to be solid contributers. Hashim Thabeet is in the team for a big body that can defend the big guys, and take some hard fouls. Similar to what Brendan Haywood does, but for a lot less money. On the boards, I expect a competitive team, Asik is one of the top rebounders in the league (based on per minutes), Dirk will probably pull down 6-8 boards, as will Marion. I expect Leonard & Wright to be active on the glass as well.

This lineup should be able to compete favorably with the powers of the Western Conference. Against OKC, it will have good perimeter defenders, so that Westbrook won’t keep hitting the 14 ft jumpers without being contested. Similarly, the middle should be well stocked and contested with Asik, Leonard & Thabeet. Similarly San Antonio’s quick guard and deep lineup should be matched competitively by this lineup.

So what do you think? Does this plan address the two stated goals,

  1. To be a contender in the last few years of Dirk’s prime

  2. To keep the team competitive in the near future

I shall work on alternate scenarios soon, which address trading Marion, no-D-Will and so on. This is the best case scenario in my opinion.

Reader Submitted

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