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In-Depth Look at Houston's Chance to steal our Deron/Dwight Idea

I know the headline says Rockets, but this really does heavily affect the Mavericks, aside from the fact that our division foe could be much improved next season. Inspired by a fanpost by IrvingCowboy, I decided to look at the cap situation of the Rockets, and see if they could possibly obtain the Deron/Dwight combo. There also has been a trade by the Rockets to help in this pursuit.

The Rockets have acquired the 18th pick for Chase Budinger and some Euro who will probably never play in the NBA. They now have 3 mid-first rounders, and are likely to acquire multiple top 10 picks using these and Lowry as bait. They are supposedly willing to make a trade for Dwight without him signing an extension. This creates some troubling issues for Mavs fans as analyzed below.

Rockets Cap Situation

This does not include cap hold for Dragic's bird rights. This is irrelevant as you will see later.

Kmart

12939675

Scola

9408207

Dalembert

6700000

Lowry

5750000

Patterson

2096760

Morris

1959960

Parsons

888250

Greg Smith

762195

Jeff Adrian

854389

Clee (QO)

3000000

Total:

44359436

Other Players

Dwight

19261200

Hedo

11400000

Dwill

17177795

Cap Hold

473604

Houston makes the following trades which are consistent with rumors:

14&16 for 5

18 and Lowry for 8

Basically some combination of their 3 picks and Lowry for 2 top-10 picks.

They then use their newly acquired picks, and trade for Dwight in 2 different scenarios, one with Hedo, and one without. The trade doesn't change much. Martin and Dalembert are productive vets that are on expiring contracts. They essentially are good chips to trade for future picks in future drafts, or good cap space options. If the Magic don't want Dalembert, Houston can waive him since his last year is not fully guaranteed, or they could easily dump him to another team in another trade. I don't think Orlando would take Scola.

Martin + 5 + 8 + Dalembert

Dwight/Hedo

The cap is irrelevant here since no free agents are signed. Let us pray that if Houston gets Dwight, that they take Hedo also. Here is there cap space after the trade.

Cap Holds X3

1420812

Scola

9408207

Patterson

2096760

Morris

1959960

Parsons

888250

Smith

762195

Adrian

854389

Clee

3000000

Dwight

19261200

Hedo

11400000

Total

51051773

This leaves enough space to re-sign Dragic, and have the mid-level, or instead of the mid-level they can sign someone for whatever is left after Dragic signs, and still have the Room exception of $1.8m.

Line-up after Free Agency:

Dragic, CLee, Parsons, Scola, Dwight

Player X, Player X, Hedo, Morris, Patterson

They would sign a 6th man for the mid-level for one of those Player X slots. This team would be very good, and a contender out West.

If the Magic don't trade Hedo, then here is Houston's cap situation:

Cap Holds X3

1420812

Scola

9408207

Patterson

2096760

Morris

1959960

Parsons

888250

Smith

762195

Adrian

854389

Clee

3000000

Dwight

19261200

Dwill

17177795

56829568

If they renounce Dragic, they now have enough money to max out Deron, retain CLee, and still have $3m-4m for another player.

Roster after Free Agency:

DWill, CLee, Parsons, Scola, Dwight

Player X, Player X, Morris, Patterson, Player X

Bench is weaker, but they may have the best starting line-up in the league, not to mention the Mavs could miss on Deron.

The only good news is that Houston's play for Dwight will drive up his trade price, and make it even harder for Brooklyn to obtain him. (Lopez + Marshon Brooks + worse picks is a worse package in my opinion.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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