FanPost

Now that the dust has settled... a look at the state of the Mavs roster the next 3 years.

Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Manager's note: this is a fanpost bumped up to the front page. We always try to promote high quality work from the fanposts section (albeit with a little bit of a delay on this one) so be sure to be writing if you have a topic to address!

Everybody knows that we have recovered nicely (frugal-ee) from missing out on big stars. We all have been talking about the fact that Dirk will take a discount and we will have lots of cap space next offseason. I thought it would be helpful to breakdown our roster and contracts and actually show what that looks like. I hope you find the following information helpful and exciting!

This first graph is our current status. It includes all of our recently signed contracts and gives you a breakdown of total team salaries on a year-by-year basis. The salary cap estimate for 2014-15 is based on a Larry Coon tweet. The other two are based on an article I read stating that the NBA League TV deals would double in value in the upcoming seasons which will likely raise the salary cap up to the low 70million range in the next 5 years.

POS

Player

Age

13-14

14-15

15-16

16-17

17-18

PG

J. Calderon

31

6,791,570

7,097,191

7,402,812

7,708,427

PG

D. Harris

30

1,265,977

PG

S. Larkin

20

1,536,960

1,606,080

1,675,320

1,675,320

RFA

PG

G. Mekel

25

490,180

816,482

947,276

RFA

SG

M. Ellis

27

8,000,000

8,360,000

8,720,000

SG

W. Ellington

25

2,500,000

2,500,000

SG

R. Ledo

20

550,000

816,482

947,276

1,015,696

SF

S. Marion

35

9,363,313

SF

V. Carter

36

3,180,000

SF

J. Crowder

23

788,872

915,243

RFA

PF

D. Nowitzki

35

22,721,381

PF

D. Blair

24

1,400,000

C

S. Dalembert

32

3,700,748

3,867,282*

*1,800,000 guaranteed

C

B. Wright

25

5,000,000

5,000,000

C

B. James

28

788,872

Total Salaries

68,077,873

27,111,478

19,692,684

10,399,443

0

Estimated Cap

58,000,000

62,100,000

65,000,000

67,000,000

Player Option

*Waive non-guarantees

24,128,953*

18,578,088*

7,708,427*

Team Option

**Ellis waives option

9,858,088**

***Stretch Calderon

5,477,524***

3,022,248***

A couple of things we should gather from this first look at our payroll situation is:

1st
Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon are both truly on 2 year contracts. Monta's third year is a player option. If he plays great (knock on wood) he is going to waive that option to hit the open market and try and nab one last 4/48 kind of contract. If he doesn't fit well at all I see us dealing him (his contract is very managable). Calderon has a better chance of being here beyond 2015 but there are a lot of interesting Free Agents in those crops (including Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, Goran Dragic) and we have some young talented PG's on our roster. It is very likely that we use the stretch provision on Calderon after the second year. If those things are true we basically have the option for a roster reset in 2015-16 if we want it.

2nd
We have a ton of cap space next year with Calderon, Ellis, Wright, Ellington, Dalembert and our rookies all on the books! If you didn't do the math already its roughly $35 million ($38 if we dump Dalembert and Crowder). And next we will talk about the Free Agent possibilities that this space leads to.

Summer of 2014
This is an updated chart for what our roster situation looks like to begin next offseason.

POS

Player

Age

14-15

15-16

16-17

17-18

PG

J. Calderon

32

7,097,191

7,402,812

7,708,427

PG

S. Larkin

21

1,606,080

1,675,320

1,675,320

RFA

PG

G. Mekel

26

816,482

947,276

RFA

SG

M. Ellis

28

8,360,000

8,720,000

SG

W. Ellington

26

2,500,000

SG

R. Ledo

21

816,482

947,276

1,015,696

SF

J. Crowder

24

915,243

RFA

PF

D. Nowitzki

35

C

S. Dalembert

33

3,867,282*

*1,800,000 guaranteed

C

B. Wright

26

5,000,000

Total Salaries

27,111,478

19,692,684

10,399,443

0

Estimated Cap

62,100,000

65,000,000

69,000,000

Player Option

*Waive non-guarantees

24,128,953*

18,578,088*

7,708,427*

Team Option

**Ellis waives option

9,858,088**

***Stretch Calderon

6,835,840***

4,686,179***

I went ahead and included Dirk with this group because supposedly he has promised to take a significant discount and remain with the team (I don't know if that mean 3yr $15 million or 3yr $36 million).

The following is a list of 2014 Free Agents who are at least somewhat notable and have at least a small chance of coming to Dallas (some of these I think have 0 chance of being a Mavericks but I added them to appease the masses).

Free Agent Options

PG

Devin Harris

31

PG

Avery Bradley

23

RFA

PG

Kirk Hinrich

33

PG

Ramon Sessions

28

SG

Lance Stephenson

23

SG

Thabo Sefolosha

30

SG

Kobe Bryant

35

SG

Dwayne Wade

32

SG

Vince Carter

37

SG

Ben Gordon

31

SG

Ray Allen

39

SF

Lebron James

29

SF

Danny Granger

31

SF

Loul Deng

29

SF

Shawn Marion

36

SF

Shane Battier

35

SF

Paul Pierce

36

PF

Chris Bosh

30

PF

Pau Gasol

34

C

DeMarcus Cousins

23

RFA

C

Greg Monroe

24

RFA

C

Emeka Okafor

31

C

Andrew Bogut

29

C

Marcin Gortat

30

PG:
First of all I don't see us having much of a need at PG. We only will have lost Harris who will be mostly playing SG anyway if our rookies look competent. Avery Bradley is very interesting but will be restricted so BOS can match anything. Kirk Hinrich has always seemed like a Dallas Mavericks type of guy.

SG:
Hopefully Monta Ellis is all we could ever dream of. He could be (though highly unlikely) the most valuable player Dirk has ever played with. Yes I am thinking of Nash, Finley, Chandler, Kidd. I'm just saying he could end up blowing our minds. If he doesn't work out there are some very interesting SG options next summer.

First of all I can't believe Lance Stephenson is unrestricted. I am still having a lot of trouble understanding rookie contracts. I thought as a 2nd rd pick that he would be a poison pill RFA but I guess Indy just has bird rights on him. At 23 I like taking a non-overpaying run at him. Obviously Kobe and Wade are highly unlikely (Plus do we really want them?). Thabo has that great D and Ben Gordon (our next Jason Terry?) and Ray Allen (if he hasn't retired) both provide valuable bench scoring.

Lebron:
So this is probably a pipe dream. He may leave MIA if they don't do well next season and don't have a lot of flexibility. IF he does leave MIA we should at least throw the max at him and pray. We would be stupid not to. Last time he had a chance to go to Dallas he ended up getting beat by them in the finals. Maybe that will be on his mind.

SF:
Back to reality. Obviously most people will want Loul Deng who is supposedly an excellent defender and will still be under 30. I live in Chicagoland and can tell you that his defense is overrated. Shawn Marion still is a better defender, rebounder and more efficient scorer than him. So would I rather have Lou Deng at 4yr $40 million or Marion at 3yr $15 million? I'll take Marion, thanks. Granger is interesting and sort of an enigma. We all remember in the back of our minds those two seasons at 25.8 and 24.1 ppg with strong efficiency. It sort of seems like a dream but you know it really did happen. The great thing is he has shot very well from 3 (in the 38%-40% range) on a ton of volume (5-7 att per game) for 6 years! The bad thing is he is very inefficient from 2pt range, his REB is nothing to write home about and he is on par with Carmelo Anthony when it comes to assists and he is an average defender. I wouldn't mind giving him something like 6-7 million but I feel like he's going to get more than that from somebody. Some combination of Marion/Battier/Pierce/Carter on cheap contracts seems just as good as Deng or Granger in my opinion.

PF:
Chris Bosh has a player option for something like $20 million. I just don't see him waiving that option. If Lebron leaves Chris will have a chance to show he's worth 4yr $60 million in the summer of 2015. If Bosh did leave MIA it would be to make a big splash which I don't think he's worth considering Aldridge and Love are Free Agents the next summer. Pau Gasol is a cute thought (thus concludes my thoughts on him).

C:
Boogie probably isn't really available. SAC is going to match anything unless he causes a ton of trouble (possible) this season. Greg Monroe is more realistic. It is very likely Detroit realizes having Josh Smith, Drummond and Monroe on the court at the same time just doesn't work. I could see Monroe being a legit option next summer. He would be my favorite choice at center and as a Free Agent in General next summer. My second favorite choice (Cousins not an option) is going to make you turn your head - Emeka Okafor. I think Okafor has gotten a bad rep for his huge contract. He is a very good rebound+defense center. Here's an article from our friends over at bulletsforever.com about his value to WAS defense this year http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/4/7/4190116/emeka-okafor-washington-wizards-defense. I think he would be fairly affordable (he has made a TON of money, is very smart so probably hasn't blown it all, and has never been on a winning team before) and at 31 with a game built much more on IQ than athleticism he isn't going to decline anytime soon. Bogut would be awesome if he could play more than 5 games per season but since we know that isn't going to happen let's move onto your likely favorite - Marcin Gortat. The brightsideofthesun.com guys aren't big fans http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/5/13/4325826/phoenix-suns-2012-13-player-review-marcin-gortat many suns fans were even saying that Robin Lopez was a better center last year. I don't understand all the buzz around Gortat. He's a decent center but I like him the least of the guys I mentioned.

Summer of 2015
This is an updated chart for what our roster situation looks like to begin the 2015 offseason.

POS

Player

Age

15-16

16-17

17-18

PG

J. Calderon

33

7,402,812

7,708,427

PG

S. Larkin

22

1,675,320

1,675,320

RFA

PG

G. Mekel

27

947,276

RFA

SG

M. Ellis

29

8,720,000

SG

R. Ledo

22

947,276

1,015,696

PF

D. Nowitski

37

Total Salaries

19,692,684

10,399,443

0

Estimated Cap

65,000,000

69,000,000

Player Option

*Waive non-guarantees

18,578,088*

7,708,427*

Team Option

**Ellis waives option

9,858,088**

***Stretch Calderon

6,835,840***

4,686,179***

A lot of options. Obviously this does not include the results of contracts signed in the 2014 offseason.

The following is a list of 2015 Free Agents who are at least somewhat notable and have at least a small chance of coming to Dallas.

Free Agent Options

PG

Rajon Rondo

29

PG

Goran Dragic

29

PG

Steve Nash

41

SG

Danny Green

28

SG

Wayne Ellington

27

SG

Eric Gordon

26

SG

Gerald Henderson

27

SG

Marcus Thornton

28

SF

Jeff Green

28

SF

Tayshaun Prince

35

PF

Kevin Love

26

PF

LaMarcus Aldridge

30

PF

Brandon Wright

27

PF

Paul Millsap

30

PF

Kevin Garnett

39

PF

Carlos Boozer

33

PF

Anthony Randolph

26

PF

David West

34

C

Brook Lopez

27

C

Roy Hibbert

28

C

Marc Gasol

30

C

Omer Asik

29

C

DeAndre Jordan

27

C

Tyson Chandler

32

C

Al Jefferson

30

PG:
Rondo is a 29yr old Free Agent. What has become of him? Has his defense remained stellar? has his attitude improved? Has he developed a jump shot? has he been dealt to a contender that he loves and won't leave? It is very possible that we would be strongly interested in Rondo in the summer of 2015 but it is hard to tell. I know we did not grab a better PG in 2014, maybe we are still happy with Calderon. Goran Dragic may be enticing at this point but unless Calderon has gone on a big decline I don't see him as an upgrade. Steve Nash will be 41.

SG:
It is very likely that Ellis is gone. He just had two strong years and has proved he deserves more than $8 million. Maybe we are the team to pay him that money. Do not kid yourselves. The SG we get in 2015 will have a huge impact on the future Mavs. The two other options that are the most tantalizing are: Danny Green - who has a filthy 3 point shot and good defense. I promise you want him, anybody would. - And Eric Gordon - who will only be 26 and may have just had two very strong years in NO. He's a scorer. The End. His defense is not good. he reminds me a lot of Monta Ellis (A LOT). So Monta may be cheaper than Gordon at this point. - But I want Danny Green.

SF:
We may end up with Granger or Deng (or Lebron?) the previous Summer. But if we go with a geezer platoon (my favorite option) we will have one star SF available in 2015 - Jeff Green. Green kind of shocked a lot of us this season and has a lot of tools. He is truly a good all around player. He reminds me a lot of Iggy.

PF:
This will be the year of the big. Two superstar PFs are available to take the torch from Dirk: Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge. Do I really need to analyze them for you? Love is the obvious choice between the two because he is 4 years younger (26 at the point vs 30yr old LA). Perhaps Brandon Wright will be a 36mpg All-Star at this point and we will want him instead.

C:
Take your pick! I want them in this order: Hibbert, Gasol (only behind Hibbert because of the 2 year age gap), Brook Lopez, Asik, Chandler. Jordan and Jefferson aren't bad consolation prizes.

Can you imagine a backcourt of Love and Hibbert or LA and Gasol? I know Love is likely a Laker but either way it is very reasonable for us to have two excellent bigs from this FA crop.

Reader Submitted

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