FanPost

A statistical prediction.

A simple predictor of team success that I like is the sum of the player's win shares for each team. Here's the numbers for the 2012 season, which did pretty well for such a simple calculation.

OKC (68.70) MIA (64.50) LAC (58.60) SAS (57.50) DEN (54.90) IND (53.70) NYK (52.20) MEM (50.80) BRK (47.50) LAL (45.40) GSW (45.20) HOU (44.50) ATL (43.00) BOS (42.80) CHI (42.80) UTA (40.80) DAL (39.70) MIL (39.70) DET (36.00) MIN (35.50) WAS (33.50) PHI (33.30) TOR (32.80) POR (32.40) NOH (31.70) CLE (31.70) SAC (31.60) PHO (25.90) ORL (21.30) CHA (18.30)

and here's what you get if you project this years players with their last year's win shares.

BRK (62.10) MIA (61.90) OKC (61.70) LAC (61.20) MEM (60.10) SAS (58.60) DEN (57.00) IND (54.60) HOU (48.90) DAL (46.00) GSW (44.10) TOR (42.60) NYK (42.20) ATL (41.90) MIN (40.70) CHI (36.70) MIL (36.40) POR (35.30) WAS (34.60) LAL (33.90) SAC (33.30) BOS (33.20) DET (31.80) NOH (30.20) CLE (29.10) CHA (24.90) PHO (24.00) PHI (23.60) ORL (19.70) UTA (19.30)

Keep in mind that ALL rookies and other players not in the league last year count zero, for example Derrick Rose or Anthony Bennett. Also, for simplicity's sake, 2012 numbers assign all win shares to the last team to have the player on their roster.

So, by this admittedly over-simplified analysis, the Mavs will be the 10th best team in the NBA this season.

Reader Submitted

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