While it's still too early to be panicking over whether the Dallas Mavericks can beat a top eight team in the Western Conference, it should be time to start questioning when it will ever happen.
The Mavericks, minus Chandler Parsons, had one of their worst offensive performances against the West's best Golden State Warriors on Saturday, en route to losing 105-98. That put Dallas at 0-6 against playoff teams in the Western Conference.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 17-8, which isn't bad by any stretch. But what good is that if they can't beat teams they need to beat? It's a multitude of factors: Not enough depth in the front court, bad point guard play and terrible defense. Put those together, Dallas might have a few wins against those top teams.
We attempt to figure out this dilemma with the Mavericks, and where they rank in this stacked Western Conference at this moment. Tim Cato, Kirk Henderson and Doyle Rader explain what's going on.
1) The Mavs are now 0-6 against top-tier teams in the West after losing to Golden State despite being 17-8. Why can't they beat these teams?
Kirk: Guard defense and bad luck. Look, our fans are going to freak out over this, but the fact is the front office made the reasonable decision to skimp at guard in terms of quality. Sure, Devin Harris and Jameer Nelson are fine role players, but if Monta is the other front court cog, the sort of God-awful defense we've been seeing was pre-ordained. Some of it's luck too... the Mavs were so close with San Antonio, Houston and even Memphis. There's a lot of positives with this team, but a 6-7 seed finish is what's likely unless the Mavericks shake up their roster OR start trying some very different line ups.
Doyle: The Mavericks certainly aren't at a loss for talent. This is one of the deepest rosters I can remember Dallas fielding for some time. However, the personnel, no matter how talented, each have their own flaws which has caused the Mavs to struggle against the elite team. Most of these issues come on the defensive end of the floor. We have rambled on and on here on the site about the lack of perimeter defense. It's likely that we will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Dallas' guards simply aren't defensive stoppers despite their best efforts. Nor are they the tallest lot. This causes all sorts of problems, especially against elite backcourts. In the pick and roll, Dallas' guards often find themselves chasing their man, several steps behind, as he breaks down the first line of defense and barrels toward Tyson Chandler or Brandan Wright. It's not just the guards, though. The entire team is guilty of lackadaisical defensive play. They don't hedge hard on picks and screens, they drift off their assignment leaving players open, and rely too heavily on Chandler to clean up any mess that comes his way. Dallas' defense is ranked 24th in the NBA. If they want to be considered elite, that is where they need to improve.
Tim: There's a lot of reasons, but it's mostly because the Mavericks aren't as good as the teams that have beaten them. That's not to say the Mavericks won't beat a top tiered team in the West, nor a claim that Dallas' season is doomed and we should give up on it now. But right now, Dallas' offense isn't ridiculous enough or its defense isn't scrappy enough when facing tough teams. With about three quarters of a season left, there's still time to fix that.
2) Where does Dallas fit in the West right now? You have the top tier teams (Golden State, Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers), then the young teams (New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento) and now Oklahoma City is back in the thick of things. Where are the Mavs?
Doyle: They currently sit seventh in the West standings. While a 17-8 record would land them a top-four seed in the East, the West is much tougher and that standing seems about right. Dallas isn't an elite team, nor are they a bottom feeder in terms of playoff seeding. I expect them to climb up the ranks a little bit as the season progresses but right now, I don't see them higher than the fifth seed at best.
Tim: I think the no. 7 seed, where they are right now, says it all. Portland's notorious for starting hot and falling off while the Clippers seem just a little less scary than usual this year, but for the Southwest Division, I think the Mavericks have been firmly planted as the no. 4 team in that division. It's really tough -- you can argue the three teams above them are three of the top four in the entire NBA. That's not fair to Dallas, but there's also nothing they can do about it but suck it up and play those teams as tough as they can in the coming months.
Kirk: They're right around the 5-6-7 spot. So much of the West banks on injuries right now more than anything else. Dallas is one of the few teams that could probably hover around their current place in the standings if anything happened to any player other than Tyson Chandler. The goal has always been to put a team around Dirk Nowitzki that has a shot at making things interesting. Right now, if the play offs were right around the corner, I think this squad fits that bill.
3) How much did Saturday show how vital Chandler Parsons is to the success of this year's Mavs squad?
Tim: I'm a little concerned about the 3-point shooting, to be honest. I came into the season think that the Mavs' Justin Timberlake lookalike was important but not essential if he were to miss 15 to 20 games, but Saturday showed how desperate the Mavericks' spacing becomes if he's not on the floor. Harris, Barea, Nelson, Jefferson and others -- they all can knock down shots, but which of them scare you from behind the arc? Do any of them? Dirk's gravity can shift a defense, but it's all for naught if the shooting in the opposite corner from him is Al-Farouq Aminu. Specifically for the threat of his shot (even if he does go 1-7 or whatever), Parsons has become a vital cog that the Mavericks can't afford to miss for many more games.
Kirk: He was the key off season move, so he's pretty vital all of the time. Small forward is such a talented position and Parsons brings shooting and a basketball understanding that can't be replicated by any member of the Dallas bench. That aside, the Mavericks were probably going to lose that game either way. The Warriors were without Andrew Bogut and he's one of the best defenders in the league.
Doyle: He is so important. Golden State built a wall around the paint and dared the Mavs to beat them with outside shooting. Dallas shot 20 percent from behind the arc in that game. With Parsons out, the team has to rely on Richard Jefferson, Jae Crowder, and Al-Farouq Aminu to fill his minutes. Each have their own talents to bring to bear but none are really reliable scorers.
4) Between now and the end of the season, what do the Mavs need to do to show they belong in that top tier?
Kirk: Make a trade. There is no top tier ascension for the Mavericks with a small, badly defending back court. But the thing is, that's okay. Being in the top tier in terms of records doesn't really mean much out West; it's all about match ups. If Golden State somehow gets paired with the Thunder, they are toast. If Houston pays Portland again,, that's another long hard fought series. My main question is who can the Mavericks beat in the top 8 in the West?
Doyle: It begins and ends with defense. They Mavs can't keep resting on their offensive laurels. Good teams will figure out how to beat them and good teams are already doing just that. Rick Carlisle should also stop tinkering with three-guard lineups. Dallas can barely rebound the ball as is when Chandler isn't on the floor, with three guards the chance of securing a rebound plummet significantly. It also wouldn't surprise me if the team made a move of some kind to acquire a perimeter defender. I'm not sure who that could be but it seems like a logical path to at least look into. This team needs to get better on the defensive end and I'm not sure all the players they have now are up to the challenge.
Tim: I'll say this about the defense -- I think it's possible they could play slightly better. We forget that Jason Terry, J.J. Barea and Dirk were three of the most important players on the 2011 championship squad, and that Carlisle is a master at elevating players to their peak abilities in a certain area. But even if they improve a little, even if they can install a zone defense that works more times than not, the Mavs' defense has a threshold they simply can't reach past because of a lack of individual size, instincts and talent. I think Kirk is right -- they have to bolster the backcourt somehow, some way.