FanPost

The new Dallas Mavericks: PG

I think the offseason has pretty much been a mixture of letdown, anger, disappointment, surprise, relief, hope, and as with everything Mavs, a ton of anxiety. Lost in all this, i believe, is a more educated look at how the new pieces which are coming into the team going to work out. I'm going to try to take a "best case-worse case" kind of look together with a light bit of analysis for each of the positions in which we brought in new guys, starting with the PG spot, mainly because it's the most straightforward of all of the other spots.

Last season's PGs:

~1/2 season of Jameer Nelson

~1/2 season of Rajon Rondo

Devin Harris

JJ Barea

Raymond Felton

Upcoming Season's PGs:

Deron Williams

Devin Harris

JJ Barea

Raymond Felton

Barring some unknown factors, it's unlikely that the roles of the 3 backups are going to change. Devin is going to be play that combo 1/2 guard backup role. JJB is going to be that spark plug every now and then. Raymond Felton is going to be there when everyone takes the game off to rest their legs and backs or if a teammate knees one of our PG in the head again.

So basically it comes down to the RR vs D-Will. Lets take a look at some basic numbers:

Rondo: 9.3 Pts, 5.5 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 3.1 Turnovers a game (2.55 Ast/TO ratio)

Deron Williams: 13pts, 3,5 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.3 Turnovers a game (2.86 Ast/TO ratio)

Jameer Nelson (for comparison): 7 points,2.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists,0.7 steals, 1.7 turnovers a game. (2.41 ast/TO ratio)

Basic stat-wise, none of them are seem to be anything more than basically a role-player on offense in terms of scoring, with Deron Williams being the only on cracking the 10 point barrier. Rebounding is where Rondo was really good at, considering he basically had a rebound per game of the other 2 guys added together, something which might be missed this season, considering we're going to be worse in rebounding on both the PG and Center spots, along with the backup SF/PF spot with aminu gone.

Assists wise, Rondo has a higher number, but he also has a higher amount of turnovers, with a worse assist to turnover ratio. Jameer's numbers here are even worse, both raw and ratio/efficiency wise. It's good to know that Deron can keep himself from losing the ball, possibly creating a steady presence at the 1 guard spot which has been solely missing. One thing which we can possibly be glad about, is that we're likely to be better at taking care of the ball moving forward, provided pizza hands doesnt drop everything he gets from D-Will. All in all, it's most likely that our turnovers per game total becomes lower, especially when u take into account Monta who has a bad ratio in this regard also having left the team.

Efficiency stats:

Rondo: 44.8% 2pt%, 31.4% 3pt% 45.2% FT%, 45.7% eFG% 46.0% TS%

D-WIll: 39.5% 2pt%, 36.7% 3pt%, 83.4% FT%, 44.3% eFG%, 50.4% TS%

Efficiency wise, both are pretty cringeworthy. For a player whose reputation as a scorer was much as a passer, D-will is really really bad at scoring efficiency last season. The main reason for that is his bad scoring from 2pt%, and it is bad enough to make him worse in terms of scoring if u dont take into account free throws. I have not watched sufficient number of Nets games, but that 2pt% is worrying considering the nets do not have an overwhelming spacing issue at the level of teams like the Lakers or Hornets.

Others:

I'm going to just list some other things which have been said about them. I might expand on these stuff in the future by taking a look at Synergy stats from nba.com when i'm free.

Rondo:

Pros:

-Supposedly good at defense at times (seen it during his times against Russell Westbrook as well as a few other more prominent PGs.

-Good Rebounder and getting the ball out in transition through crisp bounce-passing

-Good at finding passing angles as well as playing from the high post

Cons:

-Absolutely destroys spacing through reluctance to shoot the 3 even when open sometimes. Really bad when he does shoot it, and it's often out of the flow of offense when he shoots it (i.e. hesitates, spends some time overthinking before seeing his man really far away and jacking one up)

-Does not have any reliable offensive tools

-Overdribbling

-Inconsistency on both offense and defense: when he's off on defense, guys like Jarett Jack scores 20+ points.

D-Will:

Pros

-Has been known to abuse smaller/weaker PGs in the post using post-ups. (is quite effective when it happened, 91% percentile)

-Shoot really well off spot-up 3's (around 42% from what i had read previously)

-Has the size/skillset to play a spot-up 2 guard: could mix and match and play with Harris/JJB in an undersized 2-guard lineup if needed due to injury situations.

Cons:

-Apparently hit only 45.7% of his baskets within 3 feet of the basket (taken from a B/r article)

-REALLY bad at isolations: 0.71 points per possession, 31st percentile, one of the bottom for PGs.

-Despite reputation as a good P/R ball handler, only 0.72 points per possession as the ball handler. It's one of the lowest for any starting PG, and worse than most other known good pick and roll ball handlers.

-Injury has apparently slowed him down throughout the past seasons, affecting his defensive ability which was originally above average.

Best case Scenario:

Deron William finds his niche back in the pick and roll by finally having the right kind of spacing (pick and pop big in Dirk, spot up guys at the 2/3) along with spreading ball handling duties with Parsons, allowing both of them to abuse their spot-up/pick and roll versatility.

Moving away from Iso-ball improves his efficiency significantly. His off-court attitude concerns are put to rest by playing well together with Carlisle, along with 2 ex-teammates in Jeremy Evans and Wesley Matthews. Having 2x post-up options in the backcourt with front court options both capable of shooting (Dirk + Zaza) makes the team impossible to guard in the generic way, with most teams ill-prepared to handle dual-post-up threats at the guard position along with spacing available from shooting bigs, making the offense anti-metagame similar to how Memphis' front court makes it hell for other teams, creating mismatches all over.

Defensively, the utilization of ICE plays over running through screens typically used by Mavs in the past few season (ICE was used quite often during summer league, possibly showing a change in defensive philosophy, see here for what is ICE.) allowing the Mavs to be effective in playing against the generic Pick and rolls without a shooting big whilst hiding Wlliams' decline in Athleticism. Injuries are a minimal, and a healthy D-will performs much better than expected at finishing in the paint, particularly when almost next to the basket, allowing his efficiency to be much better than last season.

Worst case scenario:

Deron Williams gets injured intermittently, and like Monta, insists on playing despite hobbling on one feet due to contract year concerns. Isolation plays become more commonplace than Carlisle wants them to be due to D-Will's insistence of going to them over passing the ball over to other players, possibly due to chemistry issues within the locker room, causing Parsons to again be forced to settle for less possessions despite being better at the pick and roll.

D-will continues to decline at the offensive and defensive ends due to the injury issues, and by end of season, has frequent clashes with Carlisle. His 3 point shooting percentage takes a beating due to more shots off isolation plays and off the bounce, and his refusal to pass the ball without over-dribbling causes Dirk to be frustrated, possibly signalling an earlier retirement. Clashes with Carlisle also caused the Mavs to drop out of playoff contention entirely. In a cruel twist of fate and Irony, Carlisle quits and leaves the team, ending up just like Jerry Sloan did after his time with D-will, something which the Mavs FO didnt anticipate when they said they wanted Carlisle to be their Jerry Sloan.

What i expect to occur:

I dont think Deron Williams is likely to be able to revive his elite capabilities as a PnR ball handler, mainly because his situation wasnt horrendous in terms of spacing nor coaching. For reference, Jeremy Lin who was with the Lakers, with a Coach who abhors Pick and rolls, spacing, 3 point shooting, along with moving him behind Jordan Clarkson (i.e. throw him out of tempo), couldnt drop him below 74% as a pick and roll ball handler. With that in mind, whatever improvement has to come from the injury as well as effort front. All signs point to D-will being a jerk, but Jason kidd/ Stevenson has worked for us even whilst being asses, so it's not like all our players need to be angels off the court. What is important would be team chemistry, which i think would be helped tremendously by having 2 of his ex-teammates, especially the presence of Wesley Matthews, who could cover for his deficiency on defense if he can overcome his own injury problems. Their games also complement each other well, and if they indeed can pull off the post-up threats, then it will make life for teams with undersized guards hell (hi, Rockets/Jazz/Pacers(monta)/Nets(Shane Larkin)/... i'm almost listing all the teams ex-mavs guards go to). Defensive problems might also not be as bad as anticipated, mainly because there is no size deficiency anymore like past years, and Deron WIlliams' defensive acument is definitely better than Monta's assuming Wesley Matthews' ability is at least equal to Rondo's.

All in all, I expect to see him be able to fulfill a decent role on offense, but no longer the type of force he was in Jazz. I personally think a realistic target for him would be a more physical version of Calderon, with his spotting up capabilies as well as taking care of the ball well, while being somewhat of a liability on the defensive end (although not as much as Calderon was).

Reader submitted. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of our editorial staff.