FanPost

Why the Mavs shouldn't worry about draft position

I know this is a topic that gets everyone exited, but I'm going to tell you why the Mavs shouldn't worry about their draft position and just go for the playoffs this year.

Let's go back to the 2013 draft and look at some stats. Yes I'm a stats guy, but I also watch players in college and match the stats with the players.

1st pick was Anthony Bennett 6-8 PF we all know he was a bust at number one and maybe the stats tell the reason, at Nevada Anthony averaged 16.1 ppg, 8.1 rb, 1.0 ast, 53% FG, 38% 3Pt, 70% FT, but a telling stat was that at Nevada he was only on the court 68% of the time. To me playing time tells a lot, an that he wasn't out their at least 75% that tells me something. Of course he couldn't find playing time with any of the teams he played on, his best season he only averaged 15.7 minutes per game and his shooting percentages were down across the board.

2nd pick Victor Oladipo 6-4 SG. Victor by his junior year was playing around 71% of the time at Indiana, and his minutes had gone up every year so that tells me Indiana had confidence in this player. His college stats between his soph and junior year were 11-14 PPG, 5-6 RB, 2 AST, 47-60 FG%, 21-44 3PT%, 75 FT%. He was drafted by Orlando and they played him 30+ minutes every season 69% of minutes on the court and here are his numbers, 14-18 PPG, 4-5 RB, 3-4 AST, 42-45 FG%, 33-35 3PT%, 74-83 FT%. This tells me that he's averaging about the same as he did in college so this was a pretty good pick by Orlando.

3rd pick Otto Porter 6-8 SF Georgetown. By his sophomore year Otto was playing an incredible 89% of his teams minutes. He averaged between 10-16 PPG, 7-8 RB, 2-3 AST, 48-53 FG%, 23-42 3PT%, 70-78 FT% for his freshman-soph year, but his stats were trending up with more minutes. Washington took him and didn't give him minutes until his 3rd season at age 22. His averages for his 3rd-4th season in Washington are 12-15 PPG, 5-7 RB, 2-3 AST, 48-53 FG%, 37-47 3PT%, 75-80 FT%. His averages are in line with his college stats, but it did take until his 3rd season in the NBA to get the minutes.

4th pick Cody Zeller 7-0 PF/C Indiana. He played 2 years at Indiana and was getting above 70 % minutes so to me he was definitely draftable, but his rebounding numbers to me were pretty bad for a 7-0 center. In college he averaged 16-17 PPG, 7-8 RB, 1 AST, 56-62 FG%, 0 3PT%, 76 FT%. He was drafted by Charlotte and only plays about 50-56% of minutes. It took him until his 2nd year to get up above 20 minutes per game and his NBA stats look like this: 8-11 PPG, 6-7 RB, 1-2 AST, 46-59 FG%, 0 3PT%, 69-77 FT%. What I found funny is that his stats reflect just what he did in college except that Charlotte doesn't really play him that many minutes. But across the board, he's playing just like he did in college.

5th pick Alex Len 7-1 C from Maryland. He was only playing 66% of his teams minutes by his sophomore year. His college stats were between 6-12 PPG, 5-8 RBS, 1 AST, 53-55 FG%, 0-13 3PT%, 59-69 FT%. To me there is no way I would have drafted him this high because of his low rebounding stats. But lets look at his NBA numbers. Len has not cracked above 50 % playing time in Phoenix so far. He's averaged, 6-9 PPG, 6-8 RB, 1 AST, 42-51 FG%, 21% 3PT%, 70-73FT%. His numbers also fall right in line with what he did in college. But it seems both Maryland and Phoenix don't play him like they trust him.

6th pick Nerlens Noel 6-11 PF/C from Kentucky. Nerlens only played on year at Kentucky, but in that one year Kentucky played him 80% of the minutes, which shows they had great trust in him. Nerlens averaged 11 PPG, 10 RB, 2 AST, 59 FG%, 0 3pt%, 53 FT%. What's funny is that Philly drafted him and his first year they played him like he was going to be a started for years to come. But in future years they started to decrease his minutes. They had a PF/C logjam. But here are his numbers as a pro. 10-11 PPG, 8 RB, 1-2 AST, 46-52 FG%, 0 3PT, 59-60 FT%. His numbers are totally in line with numbers at Kentucky except for a few RBS per game so to me this was a good pick, but just hasn't been given the steady playing time. Maybe the Mavs will treat him good.

I went ahead and did 7-14 in the draft and all of the stats look very steady across the board with the players college stats, except for number 13 Kelly Olynyk in Boston.

To me this tells me something about the upcoming draft. 1st of all, the player drafted may not be an immediate top notch player for the Mavs. But in three to four years the player may be putting up the same numbers he did at college. Usually a 35-40% 3PT shooter will be the same in the NBA once they learn their way around.

This also tells me not to fret about getting a top 5 pick. Yes it would be nice, but there are really good players at 10-20 in the draft. Let's look at an example in this years draft.

Let's look at 6-11 PF-C Ivan Rabb at California. He averages 82% of his teams playing time this season, up from 72% his freshman year. So that tells me California his trust in him. He averages between 13-15 PPG, 9-11 RBS, 1-2 AST, 51-62 FG%, 64-70 FT%. This tells me a lot, most of all his stats are equal to or better than Noel's they are exactly the same height and weight, so to me Ivan Rabbs an exact clone of Nerlens Noel, and he's predicted to go 15th to Denver in this years draft.

Let's look at another player: Justin Jackson 6-8 Junior out of North Carolina. His minutes played have gone up every year he's been there. He's up to 79% of playing time in his junior year. He averages between 11-18 PPG, 4-5 RB, 2-3 AST, 46-48 FG%, 29-40 3PT%, 67-76 FT%. We could be looking at another Otto Porter but he is listed at number 25 in this years draft.

Let's look at another player TJ Leaf 6-10 PF from UCLA. As a freshman he's getting 78 % of playing time so UCLA thinks he's good. He averages 17 PPG, 9 RBS, 3 AST, 63 FG%, 46 3PT%, 68 FT%. This guy really can shoot and he rebounds well, can make some assist. We know how the Mavs like outside shooting big man and this guys a much better shooter than Dwight Powell. And he's listed going number 13 in this years draft.

I hope this gives everyone that says we need to tank some hope. There are good players that the Mavs can get without a top 5 draft pick so don't worry everyone, if the Mavs look at the numbers they will be fine.

Reader submitted. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of our editorial staff.