Mavs Moneyball - All Posts

Should the Mavericks draft a "tweener", "stretch", or "combo"?

2013-05-25T19:44:52Z

One of the things the Mavericks do a lot of, draft wise, is look for guys who present match-up problems. Whether it's a combo guard-generally a guy with good handles who's a bit large and strong for opposing PGs to defend (DoJo, Cunningham, Foster, Ager)-or stretch guys (Nick Fazekas, et al.) they're always looking for someone who can make unimposing defense sweat.

A question that can be answered empirically, however, is whether having a guy can do multiple things tends to work out better than having a guy can do ordinary things-that is, whether looking for a stretch-four is really a smarter strategy than looking for a traditional four who can rebound and bang.

We could put this question another way: are the best players in the NBA matchup problems because of their skill set because of who they are? Obviously, there is no easy answer.

Based on PER, the best players in the NBA last year were LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony---believe it or not, Brook Lopez-- and Tim Duncan. Since we're really only talking about the offensive end of the floor, it might be better to look at players by offensive efficiency and in that case the five best players in the NBA were Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, James Harden, and Deron Williams followed by Stephen Curry and Kobe Bryant.

All these guys are matchup problems, so it can hard to know whether it has more to do with their physical skillset or unusual game, or because of their unusual talent in traditional roles. True, for example, Deron Williams at 6'3" and stocky is a pretty big PG, but here's his shot chart:

As you can see, he didn't do a whole lot of posting up; at least not effectively.

The physicality of Kevin Durant and LeBron James are obviously big aspects of their offensive abilities. Kevin Durant's height and guard-like quickness complement his incredible shooting touch to make him the most devastating scorer in the game. LeBron is a guy who can play four and maybe even five positions on offense and guard five on defense. If the Mavericks can draft LeBron or Durant, I advise them to do so.

However, I would argue that Chris Paul, James Harden Stephen Curry and Kobe Bryant are very traditional players. Paul is a pure point guard as they come, Curry is getting better on that end, while Bryant and Harden are pretty traditional twos. True, both have uncommonly high assists totals for shooting guards, but neither is in the top twelve among 2s in assist to turnover ratio-in fact, both finish behind the Mavericks' own OJ Mayo.

Tim Duncan, obviously, is as traditional center as they come (even though he is supposedly a power forward). I'll grant you that Brook Lopez is a stretch five if there ever was one. But despite his impressive PER, he's not in the top ten for win shares, offensive win shares, or offensive rating, although he does seem to have improved his defense.

To me, what the interest in players who play out of position suggests is a focus more on what a coach can do then on what a player can do. Given the good coaching he Mavericks have enjoyed for so long, and where they typically draft, there is something logical about this. More than that, they have made at least a token effort lately to draft big men who play like big men, Bernard James being the major example, but even a guy like Ahmed Nivins. They tend to do this pretty late in the draft, but then, they tend to draft pretty late into the draft.

I think it's still likely that the majority of players who contribute in the NBA, probably a vast majority, are players who perform the traditional roles associated with their position. Correspondingly, it's likely that if the Mavericks want to finally strike some draft gold, they should steer clear from guys who do unusual things at usual positions and just grab a guy who can do the usual.

Just one man's opinion.

Tjarks-Tobo Draft Podcast

2013-05-23T22:35:31Z

I talk to J-Tjarks about the draft, something he is one of SBNation's leading experts in, and you get to enjoy! The sound quality is not the best, we know.

Tjarks-Tobo-1

MMB Staff discusses the draft, and how Dallas might screw it up.

2013-05-22T22:55:42Z

No. 13 draft pick slotted to make $1,655,300 in year one.Mavs need all the cap room they can get to make room for Howard.
— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) May 22, 2013

This tweet from Chad Ford sparked one of our famous MMB email chains, so I've condensed it into a post for you all to enjoy. Some really good basketball minds reside here, y'all.

Kirk Henderson: Why is he talking Howard and literally everyone else is talking CP3?

Alan Smithee: I think there are at least a few people who prefer Dwight Howard. Not me, because I think Chris Paul is a god, but there are people out there. I know one of the ESPN radio programs had Chuck Cooperstein on for a back-and-forth and he's firmly in the Howard corner.

Ford probably also looks at the roster and doesn't appreciate the disconnect between Collison's production and how out of favor he fell for the coaching staff (and fans).

Jonathan Tjarks: Collison has to been seen to be believed. I certainly didn't appreciate his flaws till I saw him every night. Count me as someone who would take Howard over Paul. Always go with the big man first. It's much easier to find a PG down the road.

Alan: I'll say this: all the excellent work from Jonathan, etc. has me really intrigued about Dennis Schroeder. I just wish I believed that Dallas would be willing to take a 19 year old kid and play him. Maybe they platoon him with someone like Calderon, who is big enough to even play with Schroeder.

Jonathan: (Mike) Fisher has had the Mavs really high on Saric for awhile. Saric passes the eye test when you watch him play, but then you go and look at his career shooting percentages. I don't think he's a good enough athlete to where he can live in the paint in the NBA.

Alan: Yeah, the iffy athlete + iffy jumpshot combination scares me. But I do like the point skills from a wing like that. If the draft-and-stash approach is what's coming, it's going to take something miraculous to competently fill both point guard and center this offseason.

Andrew Tobolowsky: It's hard being an idiot about all this stuff, but just as a logical individual--to the extent that I am---it just SEEMS like they don't really like imagining that their failure to get ANYBODY in the draft in a decade is a matter of approach. I agree with everyone that it's hard to get value as low as they usually pick, and obviously even as high as they're picking this year in a pretty weak draft it's hard, but why is it point skills from a wing instead of point skills from a point, why is it shooting ability from a big rather than being big ability for a big---why is it always combo guards. You know? Wouldn't, at some point, whether or not you thought there was much you could do to change something, at least stop getting cute?

Obviously, Schroeder or Saric probably saves them the this-year-cap-space problem, and I think I'd be pretty happy about Schroeder. But...

Alan: A lot of what you say is true, and I agree with, and makes absolute sense (at least to me).

I do think that if you really examine their ledger, saying they didn't get anybody in the draft, while for the most part true, is not the whole story. They most likely see the draft as one of many tools, not a tally of who "won" by picking a keeper rather than a bust. Their '07 pick was used to get Dampier, and the '08 pick Kidd. That's how they'll look at it. Not "well we lost that pick", but "we used this asset to help get a veteran".

Of course, getting Kidd and Dampier is one thing, but having no pick in '05 because you just had to have Pavel Podkolzin the previous year is another.

And as much as I want to convince myself of something else, I think the Jared Cunningham pick was about saving money for Deron more than anything else.

Honestly, at some point, I feel like they're bound to pick somebody OK just by accident.

Andrew: That's a good point. That's one thing I was thinking when the Thunder turned out to have the twelfth pick--lots more ways to be good at the draft than drafting good players.

Alan: I'll say this, though- having watched a fair number of clips of Saric, I could see him becoming at least a passable shooter. The form is nice, the confidence is there, and all accounts are that he's been on fire lately. Now, athletically, I don't know if he can stay at the 3, but if he does, I definitely see some Turkoglu to him. The fact that so many people talk about his BBIQ definitely paints him a Dallas pick. I know they tend to value that over other more tangible traits sometimes.

Also going back to Andy's point about why Dallas is always linked to guys who can do X but not Y, there are teachable attributes and non-teachable ones. If you're smart, you're always going to look first at the latter. Things like size, athleticism, BBIQ.

Guys that already can shoot or play point or have a polished post game are nice, but they tend to be closer to a finished product. Without one of those three qualities mentionef above they aren't likely to get better or be starter quality if they reach their ceiling. If they do have a few of those three and the polish, generally they're top 5 or at worst top 10 picks.

I'll admit, I thought they would be looking to use this pick to get someone who could help right away, whether it be a trade for someone like Eric Bledsoe or taking a lower ceiling guy like Deng or McCollum.

If that's not the case, and they're targeting someone like Saric to stash, that shows encouraging progress in their utilizing a longterm asset management approach. I like it. Now just bring over Calathes and I'll be happy.

Andrew: One of the questions I've always had is along these teachable skills lines---for example the idea that you can just "learn" a jumpshot. Obviously, there are success stories, but aren't there also a lot of failures? What about a guy like Blake Griffin who supposedly was always going to learn it, but shot under 40% everywhere around the basket, or somebody like Dominique Jones in the Mavericks case. Is the fact that some players do add skills to their repertoire unfairly prejudicing us to believe that it's universally possible?

Jonathan:That's the $1 million question when it comes to evaluating so many of these players. How much can shooting be learned at the professional level? One thing I wonder is that by the time you're in your mid-20's, you have so much muscle memory that's hard to unlearn. For every Jason Kidd, there are so many guys who never do pick up the J.

The Spurs seem to do a really good job with Chip Engelland, but if you look around the league, it's really hit or miss as to guys who pick up a jumper.

One thing I wonder is how much of it is purely shot selection. Kawhi Leonard is a guy whose shot much better in the pros, but how much of that is a function of his role in the Spurs offense? At San Diego State, he was always the guy creating shots off the dribble at the end of the clock, while he takes the majority of his 3's in SA on open looks from the corner.

Kirk: These are fun questions - what I think the mavs analysts do poorly is judge how a player works within a team concept. We keep taking guys who might have a particular skill, but with zero idea of whether they can play basketball with other people. I know a lot of it is the AAU culture, but nothing vexes me more than when I see a guy like Jae Crowder stand around the line instead of cutting and moving.

Alan: Blake Griffin is still young enough to learn that jumper, and I'll say that even if he's not great from there by any means, he does look better than at OU. Of course, your point is still valid. Really, it's got to be a case by case basis. With Saric, the size and smarts make me think the shooting touch won't need to be extraordinary for hin to be a rotation guy. I'm much more concerned about which position he guards. Which isn't to say he can't guard anyone, just that I haven't seen him enough to know.

Mavericks Officially Slotted to Draft 13th, May Trade Pick

2013-05-22T11:44:56Z

In the least shocking news of the week, Dallas is now officially locked in to pick 13th in this year's NBA Draft in June. Of course some of us weren't sure what happened...

Am I the only one that doesn't understand what just happened? #draftlottery
— Dirk Nowitzki (@swish41) May 22, 2013

Which is understandable, I suppose, particularly when you spend well over a decade rocking playoff runs.

Almost immediately after the draft lottery, ESPN's draft guru Chad Ford had this to say about the Mavericks

Hearing from multiple sources that Mavs likely to trade the No. 13 pick. Want to save cap space for Dwight Howard run ...
— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) May 22, 2013

No. 13 draft pick slotted to make $1,655,300 in year one.Mavs need all the cap room they can get to make room for Howard.
— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) May 22, 2013

Of course, the general reaction from twitter was a resounding "OH GREAT". I'm less concerned that Dallas might move the pick and more concerned that Ford thinks their main target is Howard. Literally everything I have read and heard up until this point indicates Dallas is more interested in Paul than Howard.

I also don't really understand why folks would be irritated that Dallas might move the pick. This was always going to be an option and I said so way back in January 4th. That a 13th pick is less valuable than any of the picks before it is really a fairly basic idea, and Dallas essentially sits in no-man's land because this is generally considered a weak draft.

I'm sure other folks here at MMB will have smarter or more measured takes at the moment, but right now I'm apprehensive bordering on angry. Between the draft and free agency, things don't really have a positive feel at the moment. Dirk has been and always will be a happy warrior, but circumstances beyond everyone's control (with the exception of closing out the season the way they did) have left the Mavericks at the mercy of everyone else's decisions.

The Top Ten Worst Dallas Representatives at the NBA Draft

2013-05-21T15:22:12Z

Mr. Seriousface challenged the MMB staff to come up with the worst possible representatives for the Mavericks at the NBA draft and once I started, I couldn't stop. So, here's my top ten:

10. H. Ross Perot, Jr. and Don Nelson: "Hi, Mark asked everybody who has pending litigation against him to come announce the pick today..."

9. RC Buford: "Thanks for inviting me. 'Round the Spurs compound we used to joke that late June was the only time of year we WEREN'T worried about what the Mavericks were doing, haha. I mean, that was a tough team to get past! Imagine if they'd ever drafted anybody after Dirk. Actually, these four rings make it hard for me to open envelopes, so I'm going to hand this over to Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair, Cory Joseph, Goran Dragic, even though we traded his rights, George Hill...."

8. Erick Dampier: "Hi guys, Steve Nash couldn't be here tonight, so the Mavericks got me instead..."

7. Mike James: "Hi guys, Deron Williams couldn't be here tonight, so..."

6. A smiling Rodrigue Beaubois from 2010, presenting with a weeping Rodrigue Beaubois from 2013 (ht Marktobo)

5. Bennett Salvatore: "Ahahahahahah. AHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHA. I PEED ON YOUR FRANCHISE. I WILL DO IT AGAIN. I WILL PEE ON THIS DRAFT PICK RIGHT HERE IN FRONT OF ALL OF YOU, THEN GIVE DWYANE WADE FREE THROWS. I'M BENNETT SALVATORE, I SLEEP SOUNDLY EVERY NIGHT."

4. Avery Johnson: "Ohhhh, we're going to draft whoever the Golden State Warriors draft"

3. Shan Foster, who crumples up the pick and tries to shoot it long range to Maurice Ager, missing wildly, then Ager picks it up and shoots it towards Nick Fazekas, bouncing it off an audience member's face, after which Jared Cunningham fails to lay it up back on stage in the direction of three guys, who turn out to be Nick Calathes, Renaldas Seibutis and Mladen Secularic, while Jordan Hamilton and Corey Brewer look on, amused.

2. Dom Jones, just like, screaming and flexing.

1. Josh Howard: "I'm about to open this envelope, but before I do, I just wanted to remind all of you that I, Josh Howard, am the best draft pick the Mavericks have made in a decade by a factor of like 50. I mean, by a LOT, so....you know, what could go wrong"

Player Review: Brandan Wright

2013-05-20T17:02:42Z

In September, Mavs Moneyball previewed the upcoming season for Brandan Wright, the athletic, fan-favorite who had electrified Mavs fans with spectacular plays, and helped create indelible moments during the team's lowest points(as an aside, I didn't realize how many alley oops Wright had with Jason Terry).

A quick recap:

In 2007, the Golden State Warriors traded Jason Richardson to the Charlotte Bobcats for the draft rights to Brandan Wright, the freshman big man from North Carolina and 8th overall pick in the draft. Wright entered the NBA with elite measurables and athletic ability for a power forward: a 6'10 frame with a 7'5 wingspan and the speed and leaping ability of a guard.

Despite these tools, Wright did not quite make his mark in Golden State. His rookie season was limited to 38 games due to various injuries, and he managed only 39 games the next year(though he started more than half of them) after dislocating his shoulder midway through. His third year was completely lost, after another shoulder injury required surgery, and by the time he returned, Wright was no longer a fixture in the Warriors' future plans.

That season, with his rookie contract in its final year, Wright was traded at the deadline to New Jersey, where he struggled mightily, converting just 40.7% of his shots in 16 games. Unsurprisingly, he was made an unrestricted free agent. Dallas, looking for a cheap, bargain-bin project like Brandon Bass or Desagana Diop, signed Wright to a two year deal for under $2 million. Coming off a championship season and the first phase of post-title free agent exodus, Wright was one of many new faces for the Mavs, and he quickly impressed teammates with athletic gifts not common on a veteran, aged squad. He would go on to set career highs across the board his first year in Dallas, showing off a hyper-efficient around the basket game and the ability to change shots defensively with his length and activity. The decision to pick up his second year option was an easy one.

Brandan's numbers:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2007-08	20	GSW	NBA	SF	38	6	9.9	1.6	2.9	.554	0.0		0.7	1.1	.675	1.0	1.6	2.6	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.9	4.0
2008-09	21	GSW	NBA	PF	39	23	17.6	3.3	6.3	.528	0.1	.000	1.6	2.2	.741	1.6	2.4	4.0	0.5	0.6	0.9	0.6	1.9	8.3
2010-11	23	TOT	NBA	PF	37	2	10.2	1.6	3.2	.513	0.0		0.6	0.8	.677	0.8	1.6	2.4	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.9	3.8
2010-11	23	GSW	NBA	PF	21	1	9.3	1.8	3.0	.603	0.0		0.3	0.7	.500	0.7	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.9	4.0
2010-11	23	NJN	NBA	PF	16	1	11.5	1.4	3.4	.407	0.0		0.9	1.1	.824	1.1	1.9	3.0	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.9	3.6
2011-12	24	DAL	NBA	C	49	0	16.1	2.9	4.8	.618	0.0	.000	1.1	1.7	.634	1.3	2.3	3.6	0.3	0.4	1.3	0.4	1.2	6.9
2012-13	25	DAL	NBA	C	64	16	18.0	3.8	6.3	.597	0.0	.000	0.9	1.5	.615	1.3	2.7	4.1	0.6	0.4	1.2	0.5	1.2	8.5
Career			NBA		227	47	14.9	2.8	4.9	.573	0.0	.000	1.0	1.5	.665	1.2	2.2	3.4	0.4	0.4	0.9	0.5	1.2	6.6

Another year and a lot more of the same from Brandan, who proved his comeback year in Dallas was no fluke and, most importantly, stayed relatively healthy for the second year in a row.

The major selling point on Wright is easy to find: he doesn't miss much. He narrowly missed the 60% mark on his field goals for the second year in a row, and among centers playing at least 15 minutes, the only players with better true shooting percentages were Tyson Chandler, Tiago Splitter(last year these were also the only two better), and promising rookie Jonas Valanciunas.

Combine this outstanding finishing ability with an extremely low turnover rate(tied for 1st among all centers with Al Jefferson this year, and Al Jeff was the only guy better last year), and what you have is one of the most efficient scoring big men in basketball. While Wright's offensive game is mostly predicated on catching the ball close to the basket, he did show increased proficiency from midrange. Wright connected on 12 of 23 shots from 16 feet out to the 3 point line, good for 52%. While the sample size isn't huge, it is a very strong percentage, and especially impressive when you consider that last year he only attempted 3 shots from that range, and made just 1.

Defensively, the book on Wright is a little complicated. Per 82 games, Dallas defended better with him on the floor, allowing just over 2 points per 100 possessions fewer with Wright in the lineup. Of course, this may be skewed somewhat by the fact that Wright usually backed up Chris Kaman, who had a pretty awful season on defense. His synergy splits and defensive ratings put him closer to the middle of the pack, and I think this may also be painting a sunnier picture than one might think, given Rick Carlisle's matchup friendly usage of him.

Brandan Wright has the length and athletic ability to block shots in bunches, and to alter others. Against the right opponent(no pun intended), he can be a major factor at this end. However, he has fairly obvious limitations, and most of you know about them already. At a little over 210 pounds, Wright is a string bean, and since he will be entering his seventh year as a professional, it's safe to assume at this point he won't ever be the bulkiest guy. His lack of muscle hurts him most notably on the boards, where he ranks near the bottom in rebound rate among centers, but also in defending the post.

What to expect going forward:

Brandan Wright is a very popular player among Mavs fans, and with good reason. He's exciting, still fairly young, and with all the time he missed earlier in his career, it isn't unreasonable to think he might still have areas where he can improve. Dallas has his bird rights, meaning they can go over the cap to sign him, and since he made pennies last year, his cap hold will be small, at around $1.3 million.

Determining what exactly the market for Wright will be is difficult. Though he didn't play more than 20 minutes a game in Dallas, it is possible another team might view him as a starter. Though he struggled with injuries early in his career, he has been healthy most recently, and he'll be 26 at the start of the next season, making him a solid candidate for a longterm deal.

I am sure there is mutual interest for the team and the player here. I am also sure there are some readers out there who view keeping him as a slam dunk, no-brainer type move. My reason for pause on that is one of concern over fit. This may be a controversial side to take, and it is possible my fellow writers will disagree with me, but I'll make the case for, if nothing else, a proper framing of the Brandan Wright free agency discussion.

Brandan Wright is a very nice player, and unquestionably does things no other player currently on the roster can. But the Mavericks of past, present, and (near) future are built around Dirk Nowitzki, and I question how well Wright matches with him. As I touched on above, Wright is a poor rebounder and post defender. These are areas Dirk also struggles in, and although the NB has been evolving away from the classic lowpost big man of yesteryear, rebounding the ball and limiting points in the paint are always going to be keys to winning basketball games. Dallas has seen the rewards of pairing Dirk with a center who makes up for the Big German's few weak points. Also, consider the two teams currently in the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio and Memphis. Two teams with size, and in eight games against those teams this past year, Dallas won once. Continue looking around the West's playoff race, and you see more big frontcourts(the lone exception being Oklahoma City). If the ultimate goal is to win a championship, you'll have to beat those teams.

Value in the NBA, as I see it, is largely determined by fit. Lineups require interaction. It isn't simple a game of stacking points, rebounds and assists on top of each other until you have the best five guys. Wright, when viewed isolated from the lineup, might have a certain value, but context can and usually should change that value. Saying that Dallas might be better off spending their money on a more traditional center isn't an indictment of Wright the player, but of his interaction with the lineup, and specifically Dirk Nowitzki.

Don't get me wrong: I like Brandan Wright, a lot. Infact, I believe that on a team that could play him 25+ minutes a night at his natural position, power forward, he would thrive, and possible start. If he's in Dallas, however, he is a rotational player, and matchup-dependant. The big picture here is that the Mavericks have lots of holes, and under the current CBA, limited resources to fill them all. So how much can you allocate towards a third big man?

Always a Bridesmaid, Never a Bride

2013-05-20T15:32:22Z

Last night news broke that Dwight Howard was not a lock to resign Los Angeles. I don't really know how this is news or how it broke, considering this is what we've been hearing for well over a year now. But because we inch closer to free agency every day and we have little else to talk about in Mavsland, it's worth looking into. Again.

As much as we don't want to hear this, that Dallas is listed as a secondary option for Howard matters. That we're on his radar is fantastic; with all the work Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson have done over the years to make Dallas a first class operation, the Mavericks should be on any free agent's wish list. This is just the first time in the Cuban era that Dallas has had money to burn, so for once it actually matters. But that Dallas is on his list can't matter more than the other facts at hand.

Let's start with his current club. The Lakers, as much as I am pained to admit, are the single best professional basketball franchise. Between the location and the rich history of the organization, the Lakers often act like they are on a different plane of existence because they ARE. Everyone in the basketball blogosphere used to make jokes about Dwight going to LA until it freaking happened. Try to think back about how you felt when you heard about the trade. It was probably some variation of "They did it AGAIN?" Despite the fact that the Lakers will have some sort term obstacles to get over, from 2014 and on the Lakers have nearly a blank slate. Toss in the additional money Howard is going to make from his contract and endorsements (I hope he signs a lucrative deal with Passages; I'm just sure they treat narcissism) it's so hard for me to imagine him walking away.

Next, let's consider his probably number one location on his wish list. The opportunity to play with James Harden, Chandler Parsons, and Omer Asik while being coached by Kevin McHale sounds incredible. Until Asik and Jeremy Lin's back-loaded deals ring up on the salary cap, Houston is going to be a force (Heck, I'm sure GM Darryl Morey will figure something out to get Lin's contract off their books). They play the kind of basketball that the league is trending towards. A strong guard in Harden who can both get to the rim and facilitate an offense is something Howard craves. Houston is on an upward trajectory and this is a huge selling point for any young free agent.

Finally, let's talk Dallas. In order to make room for the big man, the Maverick front office would have to strip the team down, giving up rights to all of the free agents currently on the team. That would leave Dirk Nowitizki, Shawn Marion, and Vince Carter. I love all three of these guys. But that's not a team on the rise. That's a team in need of youth. And a point guard. We all saw what happened when a talented team is guided by a hapless point guard this season. Would Dwight be willing to play out another year until Dirk takes his paycut and Dallas can sign more talent? I don't know. Given his tendency to vocalize his complaints with the media, I certainly don't think another frustrating season is something he'd be willing to undergo.

From a basketball point of view only, Howard's options in order of preference should be Houston, Los Angeles, then Dallas. Including money, it's probably Los Angeles, Houston, and then Dallas. Unless Dwight values an aging Dirk over a young Harden, I don't see how or why Howard would choose the Mavericks.

This is not to say it won't happen. Dwight is not really an astute judge of anything, so I certainly think it's in the realm of possibilities. The Dallas front office knows all this though, which is partially why Chris Paul is the number one option. In the days and weeks ahead you'll probably see more and more about why and how Howard might make his way into a Maverick uniform, mainly because it's fun to talk about. The reasons why it's unlikely are less fun and less covered. Just because something can happen doesn't mean that it will. Unfortunately, we're likely to end up very disappointed by the end of this off season.

Dwight to consider Mavericks, Rockets

2013-05-19T23:38:14Z

According to a CBS story by Ken Berger, Dwight Howard is no lock to return to the Lakers and is intrigued by Houston and Dallas--though, according to that story, more towards Houston.

As in any case, with such rumors, it's hard to know what this means, if anything. Dallas and Houston have both been publicly linked with Dwight for so long that "multiple sources" might just be conventional wisdom. But the Mavericks and Houston can afford it and each has a star to pair with Dwight, and so on and so forth.

Here are the things that are true: Dwight signed with the Lakers with the dream of being the star in constellation Laker town. He'd win a couple of titles with Kobe, Pau and Nash and then glide into being the Lakers star on Kobe's retirement. Circumstances last year made it look like just Kobe and Dwight and then Kobe's injury gave Dwight a sobering glimpse into a potential future in which he's stuck on a terrible team that can't improve....

And that is a heavy thing to have to weigh.

From a logical perspective, the Rockets are a better bet than the Mavericks; their star is younger and they have more assets. And, of course, the smart money is still on him choosing to be prince of Lakerland. People tend to.

But neither logic, nor smart money always have their day.