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An Early Look At The Impact Of Shaq & Kidd

While it is still very early to measure the impact of Jason Kidd on the Mavericks and Shaquille O'Neil on the Suns, it is certainly not too soon to see if there are any early trends to pick up on. Two of the most important to use in gauging progress are offensive and defensive efficiency. Let's take a look at how the teams have changed using these broad but important measures.

By the way, I'm not a statistician, so I couldn't find any splits for efficiency pre- and post-trade, so let's just look at a less accurate but still relevant comparison: The efficiency stats to date (including Shaq's and Kidd's games) versus a general average of their efficiency since the new players joined each team. Stats are courtesy knickerblogger.com.

Offense

Phoenix already had a dominant offense before Shaq arrived, so it is not at all a problem if their offense hasn't improved with him in the line-up. In fact, their offense is so dominant that the Suns would probably have welcomed a slight decrease in their offensive production for a big improvement in their defense. So what happened?

Their offensive efficiency this year is 114.9, which ranks them No. 1 in the NBA by a wide margin. In the games since Shaq joined the team, the Suns efficiency looks like this: 122.8, 89.5, 90.5, 128.3, 104.0. So we have two very good games, a poor game, and two very poor games. This averages out to 107, which is a significant drop off in offensive performance.

Again, it is early, but the Suns offense certainly is looking like it took a hit with the departure of Shawn Marion and the arrival of Shaq.

The Mavericks offense for the year has been good, but not at all in Phoenix's class. In terms of efficiency, the Mavericks have a 112.5 efficiency, good for eighth in the league. But how have they been since Kidd arrived? Here are the numbers: 102.2, 106.5, 110.0, 102.0. The average over these games is 105.2.

So in what is probably a surprise to most people, the Mavs offense has gotten worse with Kidd in the line-up to a degree almost as much as the Suns offense has gotten worse with Shaq in the line-up. There are a lot of reasons for this, from the absolutely wretched performance of Josh Howard to the turnovers, but the bottom line may be tough to accept at this point, but it is true: Up to this point, the Mavericks with Kidd in the line-up are simply not as good on offense as they were when Harris was in the line-up. By the way, this certainly lends credence to Wes' point in an earlier post that Dirk's not getting easier shots, he's simply more focused.

Defense

Of course offense is only half the game. I am certain that coach Avery Johnson would gladly sacrifice some offense for a significant improvement in his team's defense, which has been mediocre at best this year. Has Kidd (and Shaq) sparked an improvement on the defensive side of the ball?

For Phoenix this is a critical question. Their athletic team has been able to overcome systemic defensive shortcomings in the past, but they just traded away their single best (and athletic) defender. Will Shaq's presence in the paint more than make up for this? Well, Suns fans, I'm afraid not.

Currently, the Suns defensive efficiency stands at 108.2, which is No. 15 in the NBA. The defense since Shaq has started playing has been absolutely dismal. Here are the numbers (lower is better): 128.7, 81.1, 122.1, 114.1, 121.2. Outside of the Celtics game, the Suns defense has been dramatically worse.

To put this in perspective, the average over those games is 113.4. The worst defense in the NBA belongs to the Knicks with a defensive efficiency of 113.1, and the Suns are worse than that.

It is a spectacularly different story in Dallas. In what I consider a surprise of monumental proportions, Kidd's impact on the team has been overwhelmingly on the defensive side. For the year, the Mavericks defensive efficiency stands at 107.0, around tenth in the league, and about as good as they've done for the season. How has the defense looked with Kidd on the team? Here are the numbers: 114.3, 90.2, 92.2, 94.0.

Outside of Kidd's debut against New Orleans, the Mavericks defense has been spectacular. Their efficiency with Kidd, even including New Orleans, is roughly 97.7. To put this in perspective, the best defense in the league currently belongs to Boston with an efficiency of 100.1. The defense with Kidd is a magnitude better than that.

The Bottom Line

So the real story with Kidd is that his presence has created a more fluid but significantly less efficient offense but has also led to a completely dominant defense. Somehow, I think Avery Johnson feels this is a welcome trade-off. For the Suns, they face the rather depressing situation where Shaq has significantly hurt their offense and absolutely cratered their defense.

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Eh
I don't know how much stock I would put into the defense part, considering the teams the Mavs played.

by jdees2 on Feb 28, 2008 1:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Too Early
It's still too early to tell.  It's a very small sample size since the trades and there is still an adjustment period for both teams.

Derek

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Feb 28, 2008 7:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

wow, impressive work
but then again, sun had just played 4 of the top teams in nba, and mavs had just played 3 of the bottom teams.

can you do this analysis again this time next week? that may provide a more accurate picture.

by bigcat on Feb 28, 2008 10:10 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

These stats aren't significant
given their small sample size.

by Rigaudeau on Feb 28, 2008 10:33 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

of course
but it's an interesting read.

Just based on my own eyes, the offense has been much more entertaining to watch and I have been floored at how good Kidd is on D.

by hubcityraider on Feb 28, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, it's early
I'll re-address this after the Mavs finish their four games in five nights run.

A couple of points:

Yes, this is early (it's in the title!), but it does give you an indication of how well integration is going.

Four and five games is certainly not a tiny sample size in NBA terms. It's roughly 5% of a season.

The level of the competition is certainly relevant: We played cupcakes and the Suns played some tough teams. But there are nuances within that. For example, outside of LA, none of the teams that Phoenix played are offensive powerhouses. But (excluding Boston) they all played like the 80s Lakers. Even Memphis, which has a horrible offense, looked fantastic against the Suns.

All this aside, I think the most interesting point is the one unmentioned: Kidd hasn't helped the efficiency of our offense, even with the level of our competition as low as it was.

by Jakedfw on Feb 28, 2008 11:31 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Howard
I think Howard's injury also has had a significant effect on the Offensive Efficiency.  It's difficult to determine which has had more of an effect, the Kidd trade or the Howard injury.  Howard is one of the few players on the roster that can run with Kidd when healthy and that hasn't been the case yet.  

Derek

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Feb 28, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

One NFL game
is over 6 % of the season.  That doesn't make it statistically significant.

The current samples are completely invalid.  Come back after 10, and we MIGHT have something to talk about.  Until this, this is BS.

by BrodyV on Feb 28, 2008 8:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm new here...
I understand that the numbers bear out that Kidd has had a negative effect on the offense.  But to the naked eye, it looks to me like the offense is actually way more efficient, and I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that.  Why do you think that is?  Maybe guys hustling more because they know they'll get better looks and the major factor taking points off the board is the ridiculous amount of turnovers?
"These are my awards mother. From Army. The seal is for marksmanship and the gorilla is for sand racing."

by Bob Loblaw on Feb 28, 2008 11:47 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I love your screen name and quote
Because I am an AD nut.  And that quote is from one of my favorite episodes.

On an unrelated note, great job, Jake.  While it is too early to tell the impact the two players have made on their respective teams, I've been looking for a comparison between the two trades, so this was a nice read.

by Marie on Feb 28, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

when the offense looks good
its been pretty good

but there are too many times where the offense is completely inept for long stretches  you are probably remembering the good and forgetting the bad

by ab03 on Feb 28, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks
it's as egg as the nose on Plain's face.
"These are my awards mother. From Army. The seal is for marksmanship and the gorilla is for sand racing."

by Bob Loblaw on Feb 29, 2008 1:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How is the efficiancy calculated?
I would have to disagree on the offensive side just by watching the games. The offense looks a little more fluid to me eventhough they have played some subpar teams. Statistically they may be worse but just to flat out say they are worse now than before I would disagree.

I do believe Dirk shots have been easier whether he was focused or not. His shots are coming in the flow of the offense-- Shooting percentage up - Shot attempts down plus a better shot selection overall.

I guess we will have a better gauge of things when we play the spurs tonight. Should be fun.

by b3tts32 on Feb 28, 2008 12:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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