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Avery's Right Call

You know, I sat there and almost fell out of my chair when Kidd wasn't on the floor at the end of last night's Mavs-Spurs game. I even wrote in the game thread that I thought the decision was "bizarre." But I will say this in hindsight: Avery's strategy clearly worked.

As Mike Fisher outlines in some detail at dallasbasketball.com, the Mavericks got three good shots in that final half minute. If you were to stop time and say--without looking at anyone on the floor--"Thanks to Avery's strategy, the Mavericks will get three good shots during this final half minute--two by Dirk and one by Jet--while San Antonio doesn't score" wouldn't you say "Wow, that's a great result. Three good looks by our best two crunch time shooters is probably about as good as we can get. I sure hope we would make a shot or two!"

I think practically everyone would say that.

So why should our opinion change when you list who was or wasn't on the floor? Isn't basketball about results, and since a coach isn't physically able to take shots, the best result for him is to put our shooters in the best position to make a shot, and Avery's strategy did it three times last night when it really mattered.

This really appears to me a situation where people are saying, "Well, the strategy worked, but I don't like it anyway."

There is only two situations where last night's effective results should be considered false thinking: 1) If it was pure dumb luck that got those shots. We know that, in this instance, luck wasn't the case (again, Fisher outlines the design leading to the favorable isolations well on his site). 2) Some other strategy would have been more effective. This is arguable. Perhaps Kidd would have been able to get Dampier to dunk on Duncan. Maybe he would have been able to get Dirk a better look than Dirk shooting over Parker. But I don't think we can with any degree of confidence say that Kidd's presence would have generated three even better shots.

Of course the question then becomes, "Then why trade for Kidd at all?" The answer is quite simple: This offense needs Kidd against other teams, not necessarily the Spurs.

Time has proven that the Mavericks match up well with San Antonio. The same five that were on the floor for the last 35 seconds last night were the primary five that took the Mavericks past the Spurs to the finals. Frankly, this team really didn't need Kidd to get past the Spurs. We need Kidd to get past other teams and to do what he often did last night: Change our offensive look to make it harder on teams to defend against us.

Again, I like the Kidd trade for what it brings to our defense and the flexibility it brings to our offense, but we just can't get lost in the glow of Kidd's arrival and ignore the reality that our isolation offense can be devastatingly effective against teams. One of those teams happens to be the Spurs, and you know that's the case when Dirk gets two straight mid-range jumpers while being defended by Tony Parker and Terry gets a straight run to the hoop with only Bruce Bowen between him and a score--and this all happens in the final 30 seconds of the game.

Let's face it, in this instance Avery is getting blamed for Dirk missing shots he is supposed to make.

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Sorry
But you couldn't be more wrong, imo.

First of all, it didn't "work". Dirk got fadewaway 17 ft shots. If that's the best you can do out of timeout, you've failed.

Secondly, Damp creating extra possessions does not justify the decision.

And third, even if it HAD worked, you would STILL have the following problem: You sat this team's leader in the crucial minutes of a game.

Sorry, you just can't do that. As Fisher said in his article, this is how coaches lose their teams.

It's an indefensible decision.

by jthig32 on Feb 29, 2008 1:35 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Misplaced blame
If Dirk is shooting fadeway 17 footers when matched with Tony Parker, then you are blaming the wrong person if you are blaming Avery.

The point about Kidd needing being on the floor is one I considered, which is basically: Go with what may not be as effective an offense for psychological reasons.

I'm not privy to Kidd and Avery's relationship, so this may be a non-issue. But, then again, maybe it is. Maybe Avery has to do a bit more hand-holding with Kidd's ego. If that's the case then this was probably a mistake and Kidd will certainly let Avery know that. Avery won't be able to survive a Kidd v. Avery personality conflict. Still, I was judging this on results and effectiveness.

by Jakedfw on Feb 29, 2008 1:47 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I disagree
The only way to see Avery's strategy worked was if the we won the game. So if it worked that game why not try it again if faced with the same situation? That then gets you to the argument of "Why did we even bring him here then?"

You're right basketball is about a results, but it's the coach's job to put the players in the best position to achieve those results. That was not the case with those three shots.

Why can't we agree that Kidd's presence would've provided better shot opportunities? You're telling me Jason Terry provided the best opportunities that possession?!

Maybe we didn't watch the same game.

by b3tts32 on Feb 29, 2008 2:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

those were not good shots
parker pushed dirk out just beyond his comfort zone and terry's "shot" wasn't really a shot, was it.  a good shot is going towards the basket within 10 ft.  if anything, terry trying to pass (and getting stuffed) showed exactly why a real ball handler needs to have the ball at the end

by ab03 on Feb 29, 2008 2:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Perceptions
Well, I tend to think that Dirk on Parker at the distance he had the ball as a pretty much ideal scenario.

If we can't agree on that, then let's just move on, buy each other a beer, and root for the Mavs to beat the Kings tonight.

by Jakedfw on Feb 29, 2008 2:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

if he was wide open
from the three point line, is that a good shot?

there's no point to kidd if at the end of the game, its just about getting a good jump shot, especially one that isn't closer

by ab03 on Feb 29, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

all avery had to do
was keep kidd in the game... there would be no controversy today.. win or lose... and we wouldnt have to deal with all this BS going on today...

i do think dirk got a good shot... but after that ball went out of bounds... kidd should have been put back in at that point

by zkmavz on Feb 29, 2008 2:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

what makes you think having kidd on court will..
make it less likely mavs will have as good a look at they did without kidd?

mavs won a sh*tload of games without kidd, but dirk & co. had worked extra hard to get those wins. that is exactly why they got kidd, so that they can win a bit more easily.

sure, mavs did get the shots they want at those situation, but they purposely chose to do it the hard way. WHY?

with kidds, of course, they might end up with worse look. but without trying, how can you find that out? what makes avery so sure that, he predicted kidd cannot do any better than what he planned to do?

by bigcat on Feb 29, 2008 2:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Lose-Lose
Avery set himself up in a lose-lose situation when he sat Kidd.  Even if the play had worked, Avery still demonstrated that he didn't trust his Hall-of-Fame point guard to close out the game.  But even worse, he demonstrated all that and still lost.

The worst that could have happened with Kidd in the game is that we lost a close-fought game.  That's not near as bad as the nightmare Avery is now facing, and I would say it's still a better outcome than potentially damaging the team chemistry by micromanaging and demonstrating a lack of trust.

Regardless of the end outcome, Avery's decision was a bad one.  Kidd should have played, period.

by thurst0509 on Feb 29, 2008 2:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

avery on GAC
i never heard him being so defensive before. he even blamed the medias for "poisonous journalism" because they said avery's decision showed he lacks confidence in kidd.

and, since mavs got the looks / shots they wanted, avery did not think it is a mistake.

galloway did not ask whether with kidd the same looks/shots would come easier.

by bigcat on Feb 29, 2008 4:43 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

stein has it perfect
When the Mavs came up with offensive rebounds after two Nowitzki misses in that final half-minute, they ended up with a busted play to decide things. But instead of a Kidd/Nowitzki pick-and-roll for the Mavs to force overtime or win it, their combo was Jason Terry and Nowitzki. You saw the result.

Nowitzki did get open briefly on the screen/roll, but Terry couldn't get the ball to him. Nor could Terry avoid getting his shot blocked in the lane, sealing Dallas' defeat.

by ab03 on Feb 29, 2008 4:53 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

one thing i gotta give to avery
he held firm to what he believed in.

he believed in fighting against the odds, and doing things the hard way. that is what he did his whole life.

i admire that.

but: he had to fight against the odds and do things the hard way in his life, because he's not that talented as an nba player.

when coaching a team as talented as mavs, does he realize there is a better way to getting things done?

by bigcat on Feb 29, 2008 6:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Jake
First and foremost, I appreciate your opinion here on the site about the mavs, and you have given some good insight here over the past year or so.  But while my initial reaction was to strongly disagree with you in the point you are trying to get across here in this post... after some time of thinking about it,I really see what you are doing here.

This team is known for its mental collapses.  We (as Fans) don't need to add fuel to the fire.  We all know that the front office and Coach Avery have the biggest egos in the entire organization.  While in times past, when things have gone bad, because this team has been (mostly) coachable and humble enough to take on themselves the responsibility of defeats.  Until Kidd arrived.  

Point is, which I think Jake is REALLY trying to get across here... just let this one go guys, cuz if we don't, Avery's ego will push back harder just to prove he's in charge and thus making things worse.  The media, Cuban, and US ALL pushing for something that Avery clearly isn't gonna back down from, wont help anyone out except our opponents.  If Kidd hears it enough that he's the MAN, Avery was wrong, and fans want averys head, don't you think Kidd will start thinking that after awhile?  Don't you think his new best friend Dirk will start thinking that about Avery too?

All I am saying is what's done is done.  We and the media have made this a MUCH bigger deal than what it really is... because its still just one game, and its REALLY hard to argue that we cant beat SA anymore.   I hated that decision not to play kidd just as much as the next Mavs fan, but yet again, I am here tonight still watching them etch one out against the Kings.   Lets just all calm the hell down, and hope (pray) that after last night, Avery makes some better decisions.  

by Toddy on Feb 29, 2008 8:51 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

The iso to Dirk has consistently failed for years
I still think it's a huge deal, because it means that Avery doesn't know his team.  Dirk almost always gets the kinds of looks he got at the end on Thursday, and he almost always misses them.  The whole point of getting Kidd is that Dirk has consistently failed to win games when isolation plays are run for him at the end.  Against Phoenix in December 2006 and game 7 against the Spurs a couple of years ago are the only exceptions I can think of--in Dirk's entire career.  With Kidd on the floor, you can get open shots for Terry and Stackhouse, who can both hit big shots--but only if they're open.  If Avery can't figure out that Dirk isn't going to suddenly start making shots that he almost always misses, then I don't see how we think he'll be able to coach the team to wins in close games in the playoffs.

by scoots on Mar 1, 2008 2:21 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

all right, now, since both kidd and cuban
have moved on, i'll move on as well.

kidd is in full "listen to the coach" and "follow the order" mode and claimed he does not have slightest problem with this, and cuban reiterated his trust in avery so much so to claim he "even did not notice" that kidd was not on the floor during the crucial time.

fine. i'll move on.

by bigcat on Mar 1, 2008 3:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agree with Jake
Dirk should abuse Parker when he's on him.  Dirk's the leader, not Kidd.  Kidd was brought in here to help Dirk.  In that situation, he could not help Dirk since the guy defending him wouldn't have to be anywhere near him.  We needed guys who demanded a defender, and I'm sorry, but Kidd does not demand a defender until he gets in the lane.  Even then, he's not dependable.

I for one, still trust in Avery.

by altercall on Mar 1, 2008 7:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Dirk is supposed to abuse Parker?
How is Dirk suppsoed abuse Parker when he gets the ball 17 feet from the basket? Is Dirk supposed to take 6'3 parker off the dribble? Good luck with that. Especially with every Spur waiting in the paint because none of the Mavs can shoot. Why do you think Dirk couldn't score against Golden State. Same reason. The mavs have no shooters to spread the floor. and with no offense playing Damp Dirk has no room to operate in the paint.

If you want Dirk to post Parker up deeper then put Kidd in there.. because he's the only one that can deliver a decent entry pass to Dirk on the post.

But then guess what. If Dirk is deep in the post he is definitely getting doulbe teamed. Then he has to pass the ball out to Terry or Stack or Damp to miss a jumper. Kidd is a much better alternative to these guys.. Kidd is a clutch shooter. The other mavs are the opposite. They shoot well normally then miss when it matters most. Kidd's the oppooite.

The really unbelivable par though is that Avery said Dirk had a better shot of shooting with Kidd on the bench.  Has Avery missed the games with Kidd on the mavs? Dirk just looks at Kidd and he is hitting halfcourt shots. I don't belive avery doesn't realize this. So if Avery knows Dirk has a much better chance of hitting a shot with Kidd in the game then why wouldn't Avery want kidd in there helping Dirk?

I'll give you a hint.. it's to use Dirk as a scapegoat because he knows the Mavs are going to tank again in the playoffs. Their only bigmen outside of Dirk are Dampier, Juwan Howard and Magliore. that's a suicide mission in the West... Avery is clearly using Dirk as a shield to protect himself. Just like he tried to do last season when he wanted Dirk traded.

by ChocoTaco on Mar 2, 2008 6:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Kidd a Clutch shooter??
I'd debate that with you all day... Especially over Stack.

How is dirk supposed to abuse parker 17 ft out?  How about turn his bony ass around and post that midget up for a 10 ft turn around?  If the double team comes, he had a plethora of shooters that could (in theory) hit that shot.

Did you also forget that Bass was a bigman also?  Did you watch the SA game the other night and what he is "capable" of doing??

Your not making very good points here, except that Avery has brain farted a few times in the past and not taken responsibility for those times when he has, which we already know.  

Again, what are we?  New York Knick fans... we all know what that road leads down.  On the bright side, at least we have a winning record with kidd and played pretty well against the defending champs... we could be in the Suns shoes right now, scratching our heads as too whether this trade has made us better or not.

by Toddy on Mar 2, 2008 12:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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