clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Playoff Rotations: The In and Outs (Part I)

New, comments

Note: I've limited the data to games played in March and April to get a good look at how the players have recently performed. The +/- after the PER-value shows the differential to their season average.

IN: Jason Kidd (PER: 12.47 -2.17)
Lets start with the good news: He's in.
Now the bad ones. He is shooting 31.82% from the floor and 26.44% from three in March and April. He leads the team in Turnovers per Game and has a negative Efficiency Differential. With him on the floor the opponents shoots 47.10% and 38.35% from three. Both values are among the worst. This obviously has to change. He looked tired and hopefully the extended rest will get him going in the playoffs. Along with his unquestionable talent of running the team, he still owns best Assist/Turnover-Ratio in example, they will need him to make a three every once in a while and defend the perimeter a lot better than he has done recently.

IN: Jose Barea (PER: 14.66 -0.10)
Can't just everybody on the team get his personal Miss Universe? JJB has been beasting. He was in s slump early in a season, but certainly picked up his play. He owns the second best Efficiency Differential and they are shooting a team-high 40.00% from three when he is on the floor. He personally converts them at a 38.78% rate. Surprisingly, the team also doesn't suffer that much defensively when he is on the floor. And besides, he's our only backup for Kidd.

OUT: DeShawn Stevenson (PER: 4.32 -5.59)

Threevenson? I loved what the guy did early in the season with Caron Butler, but these days are long gone. He is still a defensive specialist, but we will see that his only advantage at this point over Roddy is his body. He therefore may be a temporary option to slow down certain guards, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes over Brewers spot on the inactive list. He owns the worst Efficiency Differential and can't hit the three anymore: 20.59%. The Assist/Turnover-Ratio drops amazingly when he is on the floor and the team barely blocks a shot. I know he hasn't had much playing time to prove himself in March and April, but I would doubt right now that he can get back to early season success. Out!

IN: Rodrigue Beaubois (PER: 13.88 +0.66)
Now here is where it gets interesting. It has been well pointed out that Roddy can't meet expectations right now. But one thing I don't get is why some fans are calling for Stevenson (or Brewer after the last game) as a replacement. Especially when the word "defense" pops up as the main explanation. Did you know the team had their better defensive stretches in the first half of the last game when he was on the floor and therefore was a big part of the comeback in the second quarter? And its not a coincidence. I'll give you more numbers: The probable starting lineup in the playoffs with Kidd, Roddy, Marion, Dirk and Chandler allows 92.86 pp100. Thats amazing. And even better than the 24-5 lineup that had Butler and Stevenson in it. The team owns the second best Defensive Efficiency when he is on the floor (behind Chandler) and they are grabbing a team-high 81.23% of all defensive rebounds and 68.98% of the field goals are assisted which also is the best value among the team. For his offense: He struggles. Mightily. What I can't understand though is why they are not using him more like Stevenson. Only 51.39% of his field goals are assisted and watching the games you can see that sometimes movement completely stops when he has the ball and everybody is just waiting for him to create. It is even more irritating because there is indeed one area in which he has been great: Spot-Ups. He converts them at a rate of 47.50% (47.20% from three) which translates into 1.28 points per possession. The Dallas Mavericks as a team score 1.04 points per possession on Spot-Ups. I think if they would use him more that way he could really gain confidence in his shot and play and good things will happen.

IN: Jason Terry (PER: 17.15 +0.94)
You know we'll need him: 4th Quarter PER of 21.19 on 54.55% shooting (54.17% from three). And besides his recent off-court behavior the numbers look good. Alongside Stojakovic he is the offensive force off the bench and the team shoots their highest percentage when he is out there. He converts 40.66% from three and the team attempts the highest amount of free throws with him. So good things still happen. An area that bugged him and the whole team all season long are turnovers. Terry, Barea and Kidd are averaging well over 2 Turnovers per Game in March and April. And a turnover was the reason that whole thing between him and Mr. Universe in the second quarter against the Clippers started. So for multiple reasons: They'd better get that fixed.

OUT: Dominique Jones (PER: 0.00 -10.81)
He was an project going into the season and has shown some signs of possible things to come. He is injured now but even if: He wouldn't have helped the team in the playoffs.

OUT: Caron Butler (PER: 0.00 -14.41)
I'd love to have him back whenever he is able to. It's just that I won't believe it until he actually enters the court. He not only was a key piece in the perfect start to the season, but the Mavs overall played the best defense with him in the lineup (100.61 pp100). The starting lineup with him and Stevenson was the best we've had all season, but I won't rely on a guy that has missed two thirds of the season again (Roddy?), because it's totally unpredictable what he will be able to do once back. Out!

IN: Peja Stojakovic (PER: 12.74 -0.88)
Will be interesting if Brewer will get some minutes from him going forward. But when Shawn Marion permanently moves into the starting role, which seems pretty fixed right now,  it's his responsibility to turn the dynamic duo off the bench from Terrion into Terjakovic. And he is capable of that. Lineups that consist of Terry and Stojakovic cause havoc on the defensive end for the opponents. Here are some and their offensive efficiencies:

Barea, Jose - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Nowitzki, Dirk - Mahinmi, Ian: 148.72
Kidd, Jason - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Marion, Shawn - Chandler, Tyson: 115.58
Kidd, Jason - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Marion, Shawn - Haywood, Brendan: 113.89
Barea, Jose - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Nowitzki, Dirk - Haywood, Brendan: 107.58
Kidd, Jason - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Marion, Shawn - Mahinmi, Ian: 118.61
Kidd, Jason - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Nowitzki, Dirk - Chandler, Tyson: 146.34
Kidd, Jason - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Nowitzki, Dirk - Haywood, Brendan: 130.44
Barea, Jose - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Marion, Shawn - Mahinmi, Ian: 118.18
Barea, Jose - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Marion, Shawn - Chandler, Tyson: 117.65
Barea, Jose - Terry, Jason - Stojakovic, Peja - Marion, Shawn - Nowitzki, Dirk: 146.67

Source: http://www.basketballvalue.com

He and Terry provide instant offense off the bench as a duo. And what's more important: Nearly all of these lineups have a net positive in terms of Efficiency Difference and partly it has to do with Peja playing better defense than his reputation would assume. Behind Roddy he is our second best Spot-Up shooter sinking 46.70% of his attempts. His overall 3FG% takes only a small dip compared to the Spot-Up at 42.00% in March and April. The only area where he struggles is rebounding, but if Brewer can keep up his recent play and Peja will stay healthy, you gotta love the options Carlisle has at the Small Forward spot despite the injury of Butler.