As the matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Conference Finals is now set, here are the numbers going into the series. The procedure hasn't changed since the last round.
| Overall | DAL | Opp | OKC | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 110.11 | 104.91 | 110.84 | 106.88 | 0.62 |
| Points in the Paint pp100 | 39.91 | 45.97 | 44.51 | 46.95 | 1.81 |
| Fastbreak Points pp100 | 15.32 | 14.88 | 16.96 | 12.72 | 1.90 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 86.35 | 88.98 | 85.45 | 88.18 | 0.05 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 40.96 | 39.96 | 39.34 | 39.92 | 0.79 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 47.43% | 44.91% | 46.03% | 45.27% | 0.88% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 23.91 | 19.84 | 18.63 | 17.13 | 1.29 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 8.87 | 6.63 | 6.39 | 6.14 | 1.00 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 37.09% | 33.39% | 34.31% | 35.86% | 2.63% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 24.86 | 24.43 | 31.38 | 28.08 | 1.44 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 19.33 | 18.36 | 25.78 | 20.90 | 1.96 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 77.73% | 75.13% | 82.14% | 74.43% | 2.56% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 52.57% | 48.63% | 49.77% | 48.75% | 1.46% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 56.59% | 52.59% | 55.83% | 53.16% | 0.67% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 22.38% | 20.63% | 30.16% | 23.70% | 2.36% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 74.71% | 75.72% | 73.79% | 72.30% | 1.25% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 24.28% | 25.29% | 27.70% | 26.21% | 1.25% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.37 | 8.28 | 8.28 | 7.68 | 0.75 |
| Turnover Percentage | 15.25% | 14.75% | 15.08% | 14.71% | 0.06% |
| Assist Percentage | 63.55% | 55.92% | 53.91% | 54.70% | 4.21% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.71 | 1.52 | 1.41 | 1.48 | 0.13 |
| Block Percentage | 5.45% | 4.73% | 7.64% | 5.40% | 0.76% |
| Fouls pp100 | 21.15 | 22.19 | 24.15 | 23.06 | 1.07 |
Overall shooting categories go to the Mavericks (once again), but rebounding, getting to the line and most of the ball handling categories belong to the Thunder. The Mavs assist way more field goals and may want to slow down the pace in this series again. Oklahoma is the better team on the offensive and defensive end in Fastbreak Points. The Thunder are a young and fast team and I could see Dallas playing a lot like they were in the Portland series.
| Starting Lineup | DAL | Opp | OKC | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 115.98 | 99.24 | 105.63 | 100.00 | 5.56 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 82.38 | 90.02 | 86.71 | 88.32 | 3.02 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 39.81 | 36.78 | 38.72 | 38.27 | 1.29 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 48.38% | 40.82% | 44.59% | 43.31% | 3.14% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 20.30 | 22.01 | 14.10 | 13.38 | 1.22 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 8.17 | 6.72 | 4.19 | 4.73 | 1.00 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 40.54% | 30.50% | 29.33% | 35.62% | 8.17% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 33.08 | 25.30 | 27.92 | 25.43 | 2.65 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 28.21 | 18.98 | 24.00 | 18.73 | 1.98 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 82.70% | 74.55% | 86.06% | 73.07% | 2.42% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 53.33% | 44.58% | 47.03% | 45.99% | 3.85% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 59.63% | 49.06% | 53.31% | 50.24% | 3.75% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 34.89% | 21.19% | 28.15% | 21.49% | 3.52% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 74.52% | 73.36% | 78.44% | 71.47% | 2.91% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 26.64% | 25.48% | 28.53% | 21.56% | 2.91% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.38 | 9.62 | 7.67 | 8.48 | 0.72 |
| Turnover Percentage | 16.74% | 13.97% | 16.50% | 13.29% | 0.22% |
| Assist Percentage | 65.56% | 56.43% | 50.74% | 53.46% | 5.93% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.58 | 1.49 | 1.20 | 1.55 | 0.22 |
| Block Percentage | 5.58% | 4.52% | 11.70% | 6.57% | 2.03% |
| Fouls pp100 | 22.27 | 26.76 | 24.18 | 19.72 | 4.48 |
As in the Lakers series, I don't trust these numbers. Mavericks won't have such a huge advantage over the Thunder with their starting unit. Note that these numbers combine both the starting units and the 6th-man units but even though the lineup with Jason Terry replacing DeShawn Stevenson had magical numbers throughout the playoffs it won't end up anywhere near the projected Efficiency Differential. I noted the difficulties here in the Roundup before the Lakers series. Dallas starting lineup has still a small sample size and is boosted from regular season numbers that date back into 2010. In fact, they have been outscored by 25 in the playoffs. And right now I can't see who would guard Russell Westbrook if the starting lineup stayed the same. Kidd and Stevenson are both physical and tough defenders, but I don't think Stevenson will be that successful chasing Westbrook through all the P&Rs they run for him and I certainly don't want to see Kidd doing that.
| Bench | DAL | Opp | OKC | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 119.81 | 104.99 | 113.78 | 101.52 | 1.28 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 85.82 | 89.63 | 85.20 | 87.50 | 0.76 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 44.00 | 39.84 | 41.17 | 36.44 | 0.29 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 51.22% | 44.60% | 48.32% | 41.65% | 0.03% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 26.61 | 19.00 | 20.76 | 16.87 | 1.86 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 11.00 | 5.69 | 7.74 | 4.86 | 1.22 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 41.11% | 30.05% | 36.71% | 28.98% | 1.67% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 26.87 | 26.51 | 29.59 | 32.48 | 1.63 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 20.81 | 19.61 | 23.68 | 23.78 | 0.65 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 77.41% | 73.11% | 80.15% | 73.24% | 1.31% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 57.57% | 47.76% | 52.87% | 44.45% | 0.69% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 61.28% | 51.89% | 57.93% | 49.90% | 0.68% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 25.08% | 21.76% | 27.89% | 27.41% | 1.43% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 73.85% | 74.44% | 73.88% | 70.96% | 1.76% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 25.56% | 26.15% | 29.04% | 26.12% | 1.76% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.83 | 6.96 | 7.58 | 9.12 | 1.21 |
| Turnover Percentage | 14.25% | 14.61% | 16.00% | 14.49% | 0.94% |
| Assist Percentage | 66.73% | 57.59% | 52.25% | 53.13% | 5.01% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 2.19 | 1.62 | 1.41 | 1.32 | 0.25 |
| Block Percentage | 7.08% | 3.17% | 7.69% | 5.90% | 1.06% |
| Fouls pp100 | 21.71 | 21.92 | 26.42 | 25.22 | 0.70 |
As always bench play will be crucial. The Thunder only allow 28.98 3FG% with their bench units and three point shooting has been the strength of the second unit thus far. Although Dallas is projected to take the overall advantage here the bench certainly faces the toughest challenge in the playoffs up to this point.
The Thunder are a high energetic, athletic team and Dallas might want to match that with some players of that fashion of their own. It would mean changing things that were successful so far though. In example more playing time to Corey Brewer or even activating Rodrigue Beaubois. I am really intrigued how that will play out. Dallas has shown the ability to adjust pretty well in the first two rounds. They slowed the pace against a Portland team that wanted to run them down and then exploited the Lakers poor coverage beyond the arc. They may have to have the courage to do it again against a completely different Thunder team in the Conference Finals.
On the other hand: Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion and even Brendan Haywood had some decent games against the Thunder this year. I really think they all will have a chance to contribute offensively more than usual. Oklahoma's front line may be one of their weaker spots. Sure they have Kevin Durant but they rank at the bottom of the league in scoring from the PF and Center position. With a little bit fewer defensive responsibility (count out Marion though as he will guard Durant) it may translate into more offensive firepower from that spots. All three should have matchups to their favor on the offensive end.