clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

A Few (Statistical) Thoughts On Rudy Fernandez

I'm still puzzled. Rudy Fernandez is not a bad pickup, no. But I initially thought Jordan Hamilton was a better one. I'm not really into this whole draft thing but from what I understood Hamilton is a high-volume shooter and true scorer. His shot selection is questionable and he has a reputation of being resistant to coaching. But that could have been absorbed by our veteran leadership I guess. Only a few quotes from Draft night and this morning that added to my discomfort:

Hamilton to Dallas. And the rich get richer. Put a mega-talent w/a questionable attitude on a super high character team & watch him blossom.


Hamilton is highway robbery. Denver [...] got back Andre Miller AND Hamilton, who bizarrely slid down the draft. Hamilton can do the work of Wilson Chandler should he depart in free agency

Maybe Fernandez will find new life in Dallas, but at best he’s an active offensive participant, a three-point threat, and a defensive liability. Couldn’t Hamilton be capable of the same, while giving the Mavs another interesting piece for the future?

Rob Mahoney

Okay so we passed on a project to acquire Rudy Fernandez. It's obvious that this team will be all about winning again next season which is at first a good thing. Rudy is a proven player (I will refuse to call him veteran though, that's a bit odd for a 3-year player in my eyes) and can contribute right away. Or ... maybe. Because Rudy might be kind of a project as well. First his numbers have constantly declined after his rookie season. He shot 39.90% on Threes in 08/09 and that percentage has dropped down to 32.10%. His overall shooting numbers are down from 42.50% to 37.00%. That's important because he most likely will replace Peja Stojakovic and/or DeShawn Stevenson. Both contributed heavily with their 3-Point shooting in particular playoff series and over the season. What Rudy brings to the table is more athleticism. His 9.50% Defensive Rebound Rate this season is above the average for his position. He also is a better playmaker and can create for others, boost the transition game and handle the ball at times. But he is not constantly attacking the rim or getting to the line. The vast majority of his shots have been 3-Pointers (62.96%) during his NBA career.
He's only 26 though. So with only one bad year in the NBA and a promising career overseas before entering the league you could think that he is more likely to rebound while Stevenson and Peja are bound to decline next season. Also add that he has a very convenient contract.

An interesting side note is Tim MacMahon reporting that Rudy is a monster according to adjusted plus-minus. I checked but I can't see it. He had his best season in 08/09 but even back then he was nowhere near the Top20. If someone has a clue let me now.

With that said I am comfortable with him replacing Peja. I think he could regain his touch and he expressed discontent over his situation in Portland. So that could have very well affected his performance as well. He was in very good spirits on Draft Night and apparently is really happy to join the World Champions!

thanks all blazers fans for ur support this 3 years!! So happy to be in the best team in the nba!!!dallas!!!

Rudy Fernandez

There will still be question marks. Offensively and, especially, defensively. You all know what Stevenson brought to the table this season. Pure toughness. I loved what that dude has done for the team last season. But I also thought we came away with playing him ... more or less. He helped out wonderfully when we needed him and I really respect his overall commitment. He was known as a player who doesn't always give his best and he certainly did that last season. But our starting unit was flat out awful and he played rather mediocre until LeBron James walked onto the court in the Finals. I think it was our bench that backed us up more than anything during the first three rounds of the playoffs. So I have to say that I would live with Stevenson's departure. If not for Roddy's injury, he probably wouldn't have played at all.

But Stevenson surely will leave a defensive hole in the lineup. Rudy's reputation as defender is questionable at best and I don't see him filling this shoes anywhere near in the future. Although we got Corey Brewer hopefully stepping up in that department I'd really like to see Caron Butler back in uniform next season now. Pair them with Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler and that would result in a very potent (and big) starting lineup on both ends of the floor.

And I'd like to bring another question up: What about Rodrigue Beaubois? Donnie Nelson stated multiple times now that they see Rudy as their starting SG (essentially overtaking Stevenson's minutes). We all want Jose Barea back and although there's uncertainty with the new CBA and other teams overpaying him, he would eat up any minutes at the backup PG spot. So where exactly do minutes for Roddy come from? I am all into that "win now" thing and such but I really thought that we would at least give Brewer and Roddy constant slots to start the season and let them develop their game. Why? Because it's important. If Roddy fails to play 18 MPG next season (through all 82 games) he will end up with under 2700 career minutes (regular season only) after his third season. From all the guards since the 80's that played 2700 or less minutes throughout their first three seasons, only 30% have put together a career of 7 seasons or more. The average career lasted 5.5 seasons for these guards. Avery Johnson leads that list with an experience of 16 seasons. Rick Carlisle btw. played 1236 minutes in his first three season and remained only 5 years in the NBA as a player. Another positive example of that group is DeShawn Stevenson who played 2187 minutes in his first three years but finished his 11th season recently.

Anyway: That Frenchman needs minutes. Otherwise the Mavs would have been better off trading him when his stock was higher. And the acquisition of Rudy hasn't exactly "more minutes for Roddy" written all over it. Quite the opposite to be honest. Maybe I am too pessimistic but the Mavs have shown that they will switch to their veterans (and Rudy is a 'young veteran' in their eyes) if things will get shaky. And things will get shaky with Roddy on the floor.

The offseason will be long (hopefully not too long ...) and more things can happen. The CBA maybe will get more dynamic into things but right now I am a bit disappointed how things have unfolded during Draft Night.