NBA Playoffs 2012: Mavericks vs. Thunder Statistical Matchup

Expectingly, the Thunder are projected to win the series by 3.12 points per 100 possessions. They take the paint, transition and the charity stripe by a wide margin and are also superior in the shooting categories with Dallas owning a slight advantage in the ball-handling categories (steals & assist/turnover-ratio). A bit surprising though that the Thunder take their average shot further away from the basket than the Mavs.

The Mavericks have led the starting unit rankings for a good chunk of the regular season before dropping to 6th over the month of April and are projected to outscore the Thunder by 2.71 PP100 with their starting unit on the floor. Two demurs: The current one with West at SG gets outscored by -0.28 PP100 and the Mavs also have played these units only for 735.80 minutes over the 66 games, the second fewest behind the Spurs.

The bench used to be THE big advantage for the Mavs during their championship run, but this also has settled. At least in terms of outscoring opponents, Dallas ranks in the middle of the pack and are projected to get outscored with at least three bench players on the floor. In comparison to the overall numbers the Mavs crawl closer, but it will be interesting if guys like Daequan Cook can benefit from the zone or poor closeouts by the Mavs backup backcourt.

Whenever the Mavs will be able to get to the crunch time, they should like their chances as Oklahoma City is not a particularly good team in late-game situations, settling for bad shots too often and getting stagnant. They will try to run and shoot free throws, but although the Mavericks haven't been too sharp either, the halfcourt offense of the Thunder in these situations is bad enough to keep things close. Especially +9.02% from long range for the Mavs is worth mentioning.

This pretty much is a reflection of what we've seen above. The Thunder own the overall edge. Dallas has to take care of the basketball and limit transition opportunities, Oklahoma City is a much less scary opponent when they are forced to operate in the halfcourt, in example after a rebounded miss. Also the Champs are still more effective within their flow offense, getting mismatches, read the defense through Jason Kidd, which they can't use after a made basket.

First of all, the big advantage after timeouts is magnificent, but not significant as the game enters the decisive stage as both teams won't use their starting units (they'll use their 6th men: James Harden & Jason Terry). Mavs want to control the pace, and keep this one a halfcourt battle to start the game and the second half. This is especially important because Dallas has had quite a few cruel third quarters over the regular season.

You'll see these lineups starting with three minutes left in the 1st and 3rd, if Rick Carlisle sticks with his pattern. Vince Carter, JET and either Ian Mahinmi or Brandan Wright probably are the first off the bench, Rodrigue Beaubois could replace Delonte West, but it's certainly intriguing to see how the coach will handle the Frenchman. It's pretty close in the halfcourt, but again the Thunder will outrun you if you let them.

This is interesting. As you could see above, the gap closes in late-game situations and the Mavs actually take the advantage in halfcourt possessions. Also the difference between possessions after a rebound (potential flow offense) and made basket (called play) is astonishing. The advantage for the Thunder after timeouts is troubling, but most of it is on the Mavs and we all hope that their sharpness will be back come playoff time.

The two areas the Mavericks are projected to shoot a better percentage are beyond the foul line (Dirk Nowitzki & Terry two-man game) and at the top of the arc (Dirk trailer, Kidd spot-up). Everything else belongs to the Thunder. Their accuracy from the left corner is off the chart (Derek Fisher 5-for-9, Royal Ivey 9-for-17, James Harden 8-for-14 only to name a few). Also it's the preferred spot from Cook, but he's only 15-for-43.

Within the starting lineups the Mavs should be able to control jump-shot territory, but the Thunder make up ground in the paint and beyond the arc. Pretty much every area in the "20s" is potential Dirk post-up land, so here's hoping he will dominate the Serge Ibaka's and Nick Collison's again. Russell Westbrook likes the foul line jumper (39-81), Kevin Durant shoots from everywhere except the corners (only three attempts, one make) in the starting unit.

As good as the Thunder are from the left corner, the Mavs are from the right. Within bench units, Terry, Carter and Brian Cardinal are a combined 23-for-46. Ivey, Cook and Harden counter with 56-for-128 from the left side (location 38 & 39). The Mavs backcourt better be prepared to close-out hard.

The stats from beyond the arc look convincing. The Mavs indeed had a good stretch of long range shooting in April, but cooled down to end the season and the Thunder in general are an above-average team defending threes. Left corner has a sample problem, Thunder are 4-for-8 there. Both teams don't shoot a high percentage in the paint outside the rim.