The Mavs Moneyball staff got together and had....thoughts....about this Chandler Parsons mess. Read on and let us know who you agree with or what your answers to these questions would be in the comments below.
Are the Mavericks' chances of retaining Parsons this summer better or worse?
Kirk (@KirkSeriousFace): I'd say they are about the same. Parsons' market value may take a hit compared to Batum and Harrison Barnes, but Dallas has the inside track on Parsons. Fans are going to be livid when he still gets max offers elsewhere, mainly because he really hasn't shown enough consistency to be worth the money. He's talented though and small forward has become the important position in the NBA, so unless Dallas wants to take a massive step back, they had best be ready to pony up.
Rebecca (@beccaaftersix): I agree with Kirk, about the same. Based on his play this season and what the market will be for comparable small forwards (Batum, Barnes) the Mavs are going to have to offer the max and be fine with that, because if they don't, someone else probably will. The nice part is for once, the Mavs should be the favorites once bidding opens.
Bailey (@brogers789): I don't think this changes anything really. There's just too much money to be thrown around this offseason. The Mavs will have to offer at or near the max, but I don't see any reason Parsons would leave. Cuban likes Parsons, and the sentiment appears shared.
Doyle (@TheKobeBeef): I don't think the injury really impacts the Mavs' outlook this summer. They've said time and again that they view him as a franchise player. Even Rick Carlisle came around and said something like that recently. Coming from Carlisle, who has repeatedly given tempered responses to Parsons' performance, that is high praise. He's their priority in free agency. If anything, the injury may make other teams wary of pursuing him.
Tim (@tim_cato): Their odds are better. A late season collapse missing the playoffs with Parsons playing great basketball could have potentially motivated him to leave, but him being out gives them a viable excuse to fall to the ninth seed. I still believe he'll stay in Dallas.
Josh (@Boweman55): The same. While any surgery isn't good, this doesn't seem to be the kind of lingering injury that Parsons suffered last year. By all accounts, Parsons should be back to off-season training by July, when free agency rolls around. As long as that happens and there are no setbacks or complications, Parsons is still going to get a truck load of money and it's still likely to be from the Mavericks.
Danny (@DannyWebster21): I think they're about the same. This won't change the fact Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson won't get together and offer Parsons a max deal. If the Mavericks front office truly understands what the future holds without Dirk Nowitzki, then they understand how much they need to throw at Parsons for him to stay. Nothing has come up about Parsons wanting to leave. I truly believe he wants to play in Dallas and be the future of the franchise. At the end of the day, I think he stays.
Akshay (@amirchandani41): Probably slightly better. Two knee surgeries in about 12 months will scare a couple of teams away, but there will still be plenty of suitors for Parsons. Tim MacMahon had an interesting nugget in his Parsons story today saying that Cuban and Carlisle had dinner with Parsons on Monday night to console him. It's no secret how highly Cuban thinks of Parsons, and thinks he can be one of the franchise center pieces going forward. Whether that faith is misplaced or not is a completely different conversation, but the Mavs really want (and need) him back, and I think he wants to be here.
Austin (@garooya): I think their chances increase ever so slightly. A second knee injury probably scares one team away and leaves a few other teams with doubts. This franchise has to bring Parsons back. They've invested too much in him to watch him walk in the offseason for nothing. There's a good chance Cuban orders up a round of red bull vodkas at a fine Uptown establishment this July and gets Parsons to sign on the dotted line.
Brice (@80GradeWhitt): I'd say the odds are better that Parsons stays. Back to back seasons where he isn't able to make an impact in the playoffs because of injury will leave him with the feeling of unfinished business and the want to come back and finish it. Especially if Dallas misses the playoffs. Seeing his huge impact the last few weeks and the difference without him should be enough motivation for him to stay here.
Rami (@RyMichail): I say Mavs' chances of keeping Parsons are much higher now than ever. Plenty of teams will rightfully be scared off after seeing him cut his season short for back to back seasons. Also, the Mavs can't afford to lose a player of his caliber. The injury concerns will loom, but there isn't a better player out there that the team can confidently sign or trade for at this moment.
What percent would you put Dallas' chances of making the playoffs?
Kirk: Around 40 percent. Dirk Nowitzki is incredible but expecting him to shoulder this load for that long isn't fair. Parsons is one less weapon to take the pressure off and that sucks.
Rebecca: 50 percent, maybe a bit more. I think the remaining guys will rally to get them in at least, I for one will never underestimate Rick Carlisle's wizardry, and I don't think Houston and Utah have shown anything more than the Mavs have in terms of drive and consistency. Whether they can do anything if they get there....lol nope.
Bailey: 30 percent. It feels like the Mavs need an epic collapse by Memphis (who is way more injured but made themselves a much bigger cushion prior to the injuries) in order to make it. A game and a half separates the 6-seed from the 9-seed, and barring some Carlisle sorcery it just feels like Utah is going to take over the last spot while Houston and Portland do enough to stay ahead of Dallas. The Mavs have lost 7 of their last 10 and that was WITH Dirk and Parsons ballin out. The OT win against Portland felt like a turning point, but without Parsons, I don't see how they do it.
Doyle: I'll give them a 50/50 chance. The Mavericks don't have a particularly brutal schedule to close the season but there are definitely some winnable games in there that they could lose because Marvs. At first glance, the Jazz seem to have the tougher schedule to end the season. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
Tim: Lemme say 30 percent. The upcoming schedule is still difficult, which makes a bad situation worse, and Memphis' two-game winning streak means they aren't going to tumble all the way past Dallas like a few of us were hoping they might. With that said, if Dallas can beat Portland again on Wednesday, I might bump my odds all the way up to 50 percent.
Josh: Give me 35 percent, even though I still haven't really accepted this team missing the playoffs -- this Mavs team has just always stayed alive. In a weird way, Felton will probably play better now, as he did with the starters while Parsons came off the bench so there's that. That schedule is too much though. Even after Portland and Golden State, the Mavs still face the Rockets, Clippers, Grizzlies and Jazz in the final stretch, all teams with something to play for. Throw in a Spurs matchup to close the year (which even if they rest their guys, isn't a cake walk) combined with games against the Pistons, Nuggets and Kings (all teams the mavs have recently lost to at full strength) I just can't realistically see how the Mavs make it through.
Danny: Well, it was at 0 percent before the Blazers game on Sunday. Then Dirk scored 40 and I gave it a 2 percent chance. Now, with Parsons out for the year, it's about negative 5. Wes Matthews has struggled this year, especially as a scorer. Rick Carlisle now needs to move Justin Anderson into a more prominent role in the rotation. There's no other guy on this team that can score at the clip Parsons was the last month and a half. Dirk will need to put up a few more 30-point games if the Mavericks want any chance of staying above the playoff line and want to get swept by the Warriors or Spurs.
Akshay: I'm going to go with 50 percent. I refuse to flat out say they won't because I refuse to bet against Carlisle Dirk Nowitzki, who's playing like he's 29 again. Sure, the Mavs have dropped plenty of games even with Dirk playing well, but I won't count them out with him on the roster playing like this. D-Will and Wes need to find some sort of consistency to get it done, but you can never say no with Dirk.
Austin: 66 percent. Dirk and Carlisle will scrounge up some victories down the stretch. As long as Dirk stays in his 2009 time machine, the Mavericks have a chance. Deron Williams will shoulder a bigger load down the stretch and I think he'll rise to the occasion. Williams isn't playing for just a playoff birth; he can cash in for a big pay day as well. Their seeding will be determined by whether or not the corpse of Wesley Matthews comes alive. His shot making is now a necessity with Parsons on the pine. The Rockets and Jazz both face some roster uncertainty and tough schedules down the stretch, which makes for one hell of a playoff race. I think Dallas is up for the challenge.
Brice: I'd say Dallas has a 40 percent chance at the playoffs but that's because I'm a big time optimist. Dirk is still playing like it's 2007 and Deron Williams looked like it too against Portland. If those two can stay hot and Salah can make an impact as a rotation piece it isn't absurd to think the Mavs can make the playoffs. Also more contract year Raymond Felton can't possibly be a bad thing.
Rami: 70 percent. The Mavs schedule gets a lot softer after they play the Blazers and Warriors for the final time. I think this team will have enough fight to sneak into the playoffs. Dirk has shown he's up for the challenge, and while he's 37, I trust the Big German to do what he's done throughout his career in Dallas...that's carrying this freaking team on his back.
What song currently describes the Mavericks?
Kirk: "Closing Time" by Semisonic
Rebecca: "The Story of Us" by Taylor Swift
Bailey: "The End" by the Doors
Doyle: I received some good suggestions when I posted this tweet. I think I'll have to stick with that theme and say "Stop Me If You Think You've Heard This One Before" by The Smiths.
Tim: "Bad News" by Kanye West
Josh: "Crawling" by Linkin Park
Danny: "Surviving the Times" by Nas
Akshay: "Skyfall" by Adele
Austin: "FML" by Kanye West
Brice: "Laugh til I Cry" by The Front Bottoms
Rami: "Lay it All On Me" by Rudimental ft Ed Sheeran (Dirk to Carlisle)