It’s that time of year again. The NBA season begins anew. It even has that familiar fresh smell to it. Here at MMB, we know you’re excited about the Mavericks. And you’re right to be. Dallas is a team with a lot of potential. It’s also a team with a lot of unknowns. We’ll help guide you along through all the ups and downs of the season, as we are wont to do, but before the opening tip at the American Airlines Center Wednesday night, we have to make our record predictions for the year.
I’ve been waffling on this for the last few days, but I’m going to stick with 40-42, missing the playoffs. And I don’t think this should be labeled a hater prediction! The Mavs haven’t won more than 33 games in each of the last three seasons -- 40 wins would be a great step forward. Think back to how fun the Kings were last year, surprising teams and being competitive for a playoff spot most of all of last season. That team won 39 games. The point is, it’s hard to make giant leaps in the NBA. I think Dallas will still have a wildly enjoyable and competitive seasons, they just need more time before the playoff leap.
I’ve been thinking 41 for a while. For fun, I scanned the schedule as quickly as possible just now and counted wins. Landed on 43. Let’s split the middle and say 42-40. Been guessing 38 wins for years now, this feels like a major step forward.
Unlike previous seasons, analytical projections seem fairly optimistic about the Mavs this season, with 45-ish wins being a common prediction. I’m going to be a little conservative by comparison, and go with 43-39 as my guess. On the one hand, I think this is the most talented team Rick Carlisle has had since the pre-Rondo Mavs that boasted the best offense in the league. On the other, their top tier talent is propped up significantly by a player in Kristaps Porzingis who is certainly a risk to miss real time, and at the very least will be limited in his minutes on a precautionary basis. The pieces are there to make the playoffs, but that will require injury luck and careful management of a streaky shooting lineup to maximize results. Postseason or no, it’s an exciting time to be a fan of the team.
I think that’s probably what it will take to make the playoffs, and I’m fully aboard the “Mavs are making the playoffs” train. It’s moving too fast, and if I jump off now, the force of the momentum will snap both of my legs in half and collapse a lung on impact.
I think the Mavericks will improve to 40-42. Porzingis will miss several games and it will take time for him to find his shooting stroke. With that, and the fact that the Mavericks are largely returning a lottery team, I have to proceed with caution.
The recent news on Klay Thompson probably missing the entire season paired with the Zion Williamson knee injury news, I’m going to shift my win totals last minute. I’ve been floating around 39-41 wins but I’m going to go up to 43 with the news. Wins are hard. double digit win improvements rarely happen. But I’ll hedge last minute and go with that.
I’m thinking 45-37 is about where they land. Luka Doncic could be a top 5-10 player as soon as this season, and who knows what KP can do beside him as well. They both look very different at the end of summer physically, and while I see a lot of second year players fail to make a big expected progression, none of them were ready the MVP of the second best league in the world.
I actually think they’ll win more than that (probably closer to 44) but I’d rather keep my expectations low and be pleasantly surprised.
I’ve been saying they will win 38 games for a while now. It’s a five-game improvement over last year. That’s not an easy feat to accomplish, but this team is certainly better than it was at the end of last season. I’m just not confident at this point that they are primed for a major leap in a stacked West.
I am going 44-38 for essentially the exact same reasons as Matt but also including four games where they just absolutely, inexcusably blow it.
[breaks through a wall] 44-38 oh yeaaaahhh! And yes i almost said 69-13 but I showed amazing restraint.
I think the Mavericks hover around .500 throughout the season for two main reasons. One, Porzingis’ load management schedule. Two, the Mavericks inability to consistently get results against the bottom feeders of the league. While 42 wins would likely mean no playoffs in this loaded western conference, this would be a massive step in the right direction.
When you average everything out the Mavericks total wins come to 42.4, according to our staff. If they hit that mark, it will be the first time the team’s finishes with a record over .500 since the 2015-16 season. Is that mark too optimistic? We’ll have to wait and see. It all begins Wednesday against the Wizards.