While opening night was a disaster, it may have provided us with some vital information that we can monetize moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the odds as the Mavericks look to rebound against the Toronto Raptors.
Spread: Mavs -3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Mavs -170
It’s not just Mav’s fans that are expecting Dallas to get their first win tonight in Toronto. Over 80% of the money and individual wagers are backing the Mavs and it’s easy to see why. The Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back and should, theoretically, be the lesser team.
With that being said, the Raptors are young and should be well-rested this early in the season. We expected the Raptors to play good defense this season and they did just that against the Celtics last night. OG Anunoby is one of the league’s best wing defenders and could make life difficult for Luka. Simply showing up won’t be enough, the Mavericks will have to work in order to generate clean looks and their shooters will have to capitalize on those open shots. We expect a low-scoring affair and believe Luka will make enough plays down the stretch to pull out the win.
Advice: Take the Mavs with the points. The Moneyline is too rich.
216.5 is the second-lowest point total on the board behind only the Pistons/Bulls game. It is rare for a game involving the Mavericks to have such a low total but it makes sense given what we’ve seen thus far. The poor spacing from game one seemed emblematic of a change in philosophy. That poor spacing would play right into Toronto’s hands and, like Atlanta, they have the type of long and athletic defenders to capitalize. While Scottie Barnes’ offensive game is ahead of where most would have expected, the Raptors will never be confused for the 2018 Warriors.
Everything about this game screams Under but we have a philosophy we refuse to abandon. Never take the under on a game you plan on watching. The money you make isn’t worth ruining the experience.
Advice: Stay away. Stay far far away
Mavs and Timberwolves:+260
Don’t look now but the Wolves may have something cooking in Minnesota. Offense aside, it’s been their team defense that has been surprising two games into the season. The Pelicans, on the other hand, stink out loud. The holes on that team are evident without Zion there to put lipstick on the pig. That game could get out of hand quickly.
Advice: Somehow we feel more confident about the Wolves holding up their end of the bargain but we have faith in Luka turning things around.