Alright, look... I was off on my predictions for night one. I underestimated the first-game jitters and also underestimated the negative effect of Jason Kidd’s antiquated offense. But, as every gambler knows, you have to get back on the horse! Let’s make some money.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of 10:30 am CT, October 26.
Spread: Mavs -10.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Mavs -650
The first Mavs game was rough. The second Mavs game was rough at the beginning but got less rough as the game wore on. The third game will hopefully be even less rough. Thankfully, the opponent is the young, focused on development rather than instant winning Houston Rockets.
The Mavs are an obvious pick to win this game. Even if you forget about the talent gap, it’s the home opener in Dallas, so energy will be high throughout the game. But I’d never bet an NBA moneyline with odds like -650. You have to bet a ton to win a little, and who knows — What if Luka Doncic tweaks his ankle and misses half the game? (knocks ferociously on all of the wood nearby)
I’m staying away from the moneyline, but the spread is intriguing. This is a game the Mavs should win convincingly. I never like to bet on a team to win by double-digits on a Monday night NBA game in October, because anything can happen. But this one is worth a sprinkle. All the stars are aligning.
Advice: Sprinkle a little on the Mavs to cover the spread in their home opener.
Let’s look at the total scores of the Mavs’ first two games to start the season.
- Game 1: 200
- Game 2: 198
Clearly, oddsmakers are expecting the Mavs’ offense to pick up and their defense to let up. I mean, this is a team led by Luka Doncic, and they’ve scored 87 points and 103 points in their first two games? That can’t stay that way, right?
Even if we start to see higher-scoring games as the season wears on, there’s no reason to believe tonight’s game will be a shootout. I feel like the over/under is set 10ish points too high. I hate betting unders because it’s no fun, but this is about making money.
Advice: Hammer the under until the Mavericks prove otherwise. This feels like a 110-95 type of game.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Nuggets: +292
Since the Mavs are such heavy favorites at home tonight against the Rockets, we’re going to go with an underdog for our second pick to stack the odds a bit. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m counting the Mavs as a near-guarantee to at least win their game outright, so that means you’re basically getting +292 on the Nuggets to beat the Jazz on the road.
That should be a good game — two Western Conference powerhouses battling. This feels like a toss-up to me, which is why +292 means you need to grab it. Are the Jazz a better team than the Nuggets? Sure. But the Nuggets are coming off an embarrassing loss to Cleveland and Utah is 2-0 and has only played bad teams (OKC and SAC). They’re due for a loss.
Advice: Throw a medium amount on this one. It feels like a toss-up, but the odds are tasty.