Trigger warning- if you keep reading beyond this point there is a non-zero chance you block me on Twitter and demand that I be drawn and quartered. Let’s get into tonight’s game against the Spurs.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 am CT, October 28th.
Spread: Mavs -7 (-105)
Moneyline: Mavs -275
The Mavs are 2-1 but have done little to inspire confidence from its fanbase and observers of the league. Participation trophies were recently handed out after the Mav’s latest win in which all 15 players checked into the game. The “leadership council” has been snickered at and with reason. Jason Kidd is the black cloud that will hover over this team for as long as the season lasts.
The Spurs, on the other hand, are 1-3 but have been competitive in their losses against the Lakers, Bucks, and Nuggets. Some believed the Spurs would be the worst team in the league but that is clearly not the case. They are well-coached, play hard, and have the type of players that give the Mavericks fits. This game will be uncomfortably close and the Spurs have a legit chance of winning outright.
Advice: It would be blasphemous to suggest betting against your own team. Instead, we suggest staying away and focusing on player props.
The Spurs are pesky on defense largely in part to Jakob Poeltl’s rim protection. While no big is capable of shutting down Luka, he could force a few more midrange shots from the Mavericks. Poeltl is also a good rebounder. That could lead to Kidd insisting on going with larger lineups. Porzingis’s status is still unclear. Reggie Bullock’s role is still unclear. This smells like a clunky, hard-fought game where the first team to get to 110 points will win.
Advice: We don’t believe in betting the under in games you plan on watching, but this may be the exception to the rule. This game will be excruciating to watch, you may as well profit off of your pain.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Because the Mavs are -275 favorites, there will be little value in a two-team parlay. That being said, we understand that most gamblers are gluttons for punishment. Knicks are currently +100 underdogs to the 4-0, and probably fraudulent, Chicago Bulls. This is the toughest test of the season for the Bulls and we are curious how their defense will hold up.
A Mavericks/Knicks Moneyline parlay pays +172. That seems like a good way to avoid the spread in the Mavs game and still have some upside.
Advice: If you’re convinced the Mavs will win tonight, you are essentially getting the Knicks at +172 in a game that seems evenly matched.