We’re here folks. Tonight is the Dallas Mavericks' first back-to-back game of the 2021-22 season. So how should you bet it? Let’s get into it.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of 12 pm CT, October 29.
Spread: Mavs +1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Mavs +105
As it sits right now, both Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Jokic are listed as questionable and are thought to be game-time decisions. Obviously, whether or not those two guys play will adjust the odds closer to game time. Jokic is the reigning MVP and Porzingis is semi-helpful to the Mavs sometimes (that’s as nice as I feel like being about KP right now).
The thing is... I like the Mavs to come away with a win regardless if Jokic is playing or not. Similar to the Mavs, the Nuggets have looked less-than-stellar to start the 2021-22 campaign. Michael Porter Jr. has been atrocious, and Jamal Murray’s absence is felt more than usual. On the Mavs side, their offense has looked horrible to start the season but has shown some small signs of improvement.
A big problem with the Mavs right now is their just missing shots. Luka Doncic is shooting 28 percent from deep. Kristaps is shooting 30 percent from the field and 23 percent from deep. Dorian Finney-Smith is also shooting 23 percent from deep.
Those are three guys that are capable of doing way more than they’ve shown in the first few games, and are likely due for a good shooting night.
The tough part about betting this is if Jokic is downgraded to out, then the Mavs will likely swing into position as the favorites. On the flipside, if a decision comes early and it looks like Jokic will play, the Mavs' odds will be even tastier.
Advice: Whether you bet this before or after the injury updates come out, bet the Mavs moneyline. They’re going to win this game.
Oddsmakers are starting to realize two things about the Mavericks:
- Their defense is pretty good.
- Their offense is pretty bad.
That means most Mavs games for the time being are going to be low-scoring affairs. That’s indicated by the measly over/under of 215.5.
My philosophy with this is no matter how bad the offense has been and how good the defense has been, you can’t bet on a team with Luka to play in a game that totals out to fewer than 215.5 points. It just doesn’t feel right.
Advice: Take the over and enjoy cheering for buckets.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Heat: +198
It doesn’t feel good to bet against the Hornets. They’ve had an awesome start to the 2021-22 season, and they’ve been incredibly fun to watch. But this feels like a game they’ll lose. The Heat have a veteran-loaded roster with guys who will make life difficult for LaMelo Ball. The Heat are tough and physical. The Hornets are fun and flashy.
Also, one thing you have to consider here is with the game being in Miami, that likely means the Hornets spent last night in Miami, and Miami has... um... notable nightlife. Will a young team like the Hornets come out ready to play tonight?
Advice: This is worth a sprinkle, but things could go wrong quickly.