If the old saying “familiarity brings contempt” is true, the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs should hate each other by now. Tonight will be both teams’ 12th game of the season, but their 3rd against each other. Playing one team so many times so early provides for some feisty basketball. That is only heightened when it is the Mavericks and Spurs.
Both teams are missing their best defensive big man as the Mavericks will be without Maxi Kleber and the Spurs will be without Jakob Poetl. The Mavericks are coming off of a disheartening loss to the Chicago Bulls, as they were once again outclassed and defeated by double digits against a good team.
Spread: Mavs -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavs -135
The Mavericks have shown an ability to defeat bad teams and the Spurs appear to be a bad team. The Mavericks are coming up on a very difficult schedule and need to bank this win. It seems incredibly early to be worried about seeding and record, but a win in November counts the same as a win in April when the final record is tallied. Coach Jason Kidd knows that the Mavericks need to win, and he will ride Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson if needed.
Advice: Stay away. This is not a game you should feel confident enough to put into multiple wagers so if you choose to bet the two team money line parlay, leave the individual game alone. You can get better odds with a two team money line parlay. It is difficult to beat a team three times in such quick succession and most advanced stats(offensive rating, defensive rating etc) favor the Spurs as actually being the better team. I cannot advise betting against the Mavericks.
217.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
The over is the only bet you can win while the game is still going. But you still shouldn’t bet it in this game. Neither game these teams have played would have qualified for the over and neither team is particularly good offensively.
Advice: Take a deep breath and bet the under. The Spurs play quite fast(4th in the league in pace) but they are 19th in offensive rating while the Mavericks are 23rd. The Spurs are also quietly a top ten defensive team and feature enough length athletes to give Luka Doncic trouble. This game should be a charity event for Habitat for Humanity as there should be enough bricks to build multiple houses.
Two-Team Money Line Parlay
Because of the lower odds, there are several parlays which could make sense but the danger of the Mavericks losing this game make them poor decisions.
Advice: Stay away. Even if you are the type of fan who likes to bet against their own team and guarantee yourself either the psychic benefits of your team winning or the monetary benefit of making money, this game is just a clear stay away. The Mavericks have done enough to beat bad teams but just because you flip a coin and it comes up heads 5 times in a row does not mean you believe it will continue to do so. There is a ton of statistical evidence that the outcome in close games is closer to a matter of luck than skill. This game will likely be close and there are better ways to make money betting than this particular game.