The last time the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets matched up was on October 29, and... it didn’t go well. The Mavericks got curb-stomped in Denver’s altitude, losing by a final score of 106-75. Should we expect things to be different tonight in Dallas?

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of 11:30 am CT, November 15.

Outcome Odds

Spread: Mavs -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Mavs -195

I’m having a hard time figuring out why the Mavs are favored so heavily in this game. Nikola Jokic is arguably the best player in the NBA and the Mavs are likely going to try to guard him with a rotating cast of Dwight Powell, Kristaps Porzingis and Willie Cauley-Stein. That’s less than ideal. It’s actually horrifying.

The good news for the Mavs is that this game is in Dallas so they don’t have to worry about the altitude like last time. I’m not sure Luka Doncic is in anywhere near good enough shape to beat an NBA team in Denver right now.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Mavs win tonight. I actually think they could. Luka and KP are both coming off stellar games against San Antonio and it looks like they’re finding their way. But I hate the spread, and the moneyline odds are bad.

Advice: Both the spread and the moneyline straight up are massive stay-aways.

Over/Under

209 (-110)

I’m not going to mince words — I’m absolutely in love with the over here.

The Mavs’ offense appears to be getting back on track, and they also have no way of stopping last year’s MVP, Nikola Jokic. How will this game stay under a combined 209 points?

Advice: Hammer the over. It feels like free money.

Two-Team Moneyline Parlay

Mavs and Knicks: +148

My earlier advice was not to take the Mavs’ moneyline or to cover the spread. Do I think the Mavs can win? Sure! Why not? But I don’t like them enough to bet them at -195 odds. That’s why pairing them with the Knicks here is the right play.

The Knicks take on the Pacers tonight in Madison Square Garden. There isn’t much to this game. Both teams’ stars are relatively healthy. I just think the Knicks are a better team, and they have The Garden behind them. I don’t see a world where the Pacers come away with a win in NYC tonight, so if you’re confident in the Mavericks to beat the Nuggets, make it a two-team moneyline parlay.

Advice: Cautiously sprinkle a little on this. It’s worth a shot.